Monday, December 30, 2013

Day 16

Bringing Down The Curtain On 2013

It was a light day of racing as the racing year ended.  I had only three selections on the Gulfstream card, but really thought I had two near-certain winners.  In the third Little Jimmy was going to be the favorite, and being out of the Ramsey stable for trainer Mike Maker he would get pounded regardless of any other facts.  But as a class dropper, a big 50% win angle according to the Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club, he looked to be very deserving of all the attention.  He opened at 1/9 and stayed that way until about five minutes before post time.  He floated up to 1/5, then all the way to 1/2 - that was a huge overlay as the gates sprung open.  By the time they hit the far turn and he opened up his odds had plummeted back to where they deserved to be, at 1/5.  But under the most confident of hand rides he drilled the field by daylight! 

That would be the final winner on the day.  My Pal Chrisy was the 3/5 favorite in the Ocala Stakes and as they were in the paddock I had the thought that her uncoupled stable mate would probably be the one to fear, for no other reason that "race track logic."  Sure enough, in spite of facing her 3-time stakes winning stablemate Devil's Cave wired the field and paid nearly ten dollars in a six horse field.  Not right if trainer Marty Wolfson knew this was a strong possibility.....sneaky!  The last race of the day, month, and year was an 8th place finish on the turf with a Ramsey runner at 5/2. 

For the month of December at Gulfstream I was happy with the winning percentage, but the parade of short-priced winners led to a much lower ROI than I like. 
177 / 55-39-21
WIN Pct:  31.1% / ITM Pct:  65.0%
For the year I had excellent numbers: 

Check out my "Top Ten Racing Momements" from 2013:

Day 15

A B-I-G Saturday!

With the family in town and movie plans I knew today would be one of the rare Saturdays I would NOT be on track.  So I handicapped the Gulfstream and Santa Anita cards.  I ended up with twelve selections that ran, so I made my early bets and then we headed off to see the Disney movie "Frozen." 

It was excellent, and a good family adventure.  Once we got home I went online and began watching the races.........the second race at Gulfstream came off the turf, so I lost my pick; my original second choice (after the top one scratched) stayed in the race and walked with it.  In the third I had Go To Work.  I wrote how interesting it would be to watch because my top pick was going out for trainer Kirk Ziadie.  He'd been winning all summer at over 40%, but 99.9% of those were owned by Frank Calabrese and Go To Work was not.  He went off as the 1/2 favorite.  He led into the stretch, but offered little resistance as the 4/1 second choice ran right by him.....second.  I doubled the bet on Sea of Faces, another Todd Pletcher runner coming off a short layoff - a 45% winning angle according to the Gulfstream Handicapper.  He was dropping from Maiden Specials into a Maiden Claimer, and Pletcher's class droppers win at a big 47%.  He sat just off the pace until the spun out of the turn and then ran away with it!  My first winner on the day. 

 
 
I came back with Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Reach For A Kitten over the turf, but unlike most of their runners, this one was trained by Todd Pletcher.  He stalked the pace at a nice 5/2 into the far turn and took over willingly, looking like a decisive winner.  But then a 9/1 longshot under Joe Bravo ran him down and I had my second runner-up of the day.  The 7th had presented a dilemma when I made my bets.  My pick was Special Jak who had multiple Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club angles for trainer Peter Walder.  I had picked him in spite of him being on the turf today.  Most of his races were over the main track, but he appeared to be well spotted for the grass.  The weather forced it off the grass, so I debated about sticking with him or not.  In the end his dirt form and the fact I'd written, "....all the Walder angles would apply on either surface......."  He was mid-pack to the far turn, then began gobbling up ground.  He caught the leaders and then drew off with authority scoring by five widening lengths under a hand ride!  And better yet, he left the gate at 3/1.  The $8.20 payoff netted me over $40 and assured a winning day in Hallandale! 

Minutes later they were off in the second at Santa Anita.  I know that bets like the one I made on San Onofre are not good "bets" because he was nearly certain to be odds-on.  But anything close to his blow-out 98 Beyer figure in his maiden win would make him an easy winner; on top of that the rivals looked really average at best.  Right to the front, never looked back, and easily best.  The triple investment led to a profit of nearly ten dollars - that's easy money my friend! 

The El Prado Stakes at Gulfstream was next.  When I handicapped the race I saw any one of five as likely winners.  Two of those scratched and it appeared a jockey's race to me, so I went with Todd Pletcher's Salto, ridden by top rider Javie Castellano.  A 5/1 outsider went to the front and Castellano sat chilly on the 8/5 favorite. The fractions were not fast and I was a bit worried that the front runner would have too much left in the stretch.  Castellano said go and he was getting to him with every stride, but fell a desperate head short on the wire, second again!  I was third in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector when favorite Star Harbor set the pace, but gave it up without a fight to be third.  And finally I ended the day with a fifth on the turf with a Christophe Clement filly at 4/1.  For the day at Gulfstream I was 2-for-7, but profited. 

Next up was the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita.  This one-mile turf event for two-year olds and I settled on Enterprising.  He had improved vastly in his latest which drew my attention.  And the fact he was tabbed as DRF's Brad Free as his "best" of the day led me to TRIPLE the bet.  He was rated perfectly by Gary Stevens and accelerated through the lane to win!  He scored $5.60 and I cashed for over $40, guaranteeing a winning day out west! 

But I wasn't done yet!  After third at 7/5 (when I looked like an easy winner) and 6th with a 5/1 longshot I had what looked like another easy winner, on paper.  Seeking the Sherif had dominated his maiden win while setting a very fast pace.  Three issues to consider:  first, today was his first time against winners; second, that win had come over a sloppy track - did that aid his win and the big figure?  And third, it was last March!  But, much like San Onofre in the first bet, if he ran anything close to that race he was EASILY the winner.  And that is just what happened, right to the front, quickly clear and L-O-N-G gone!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

For the day I finished an excellent 5-for-12, over 40% and a profit of $30!  Excellent!

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Day 14

Another WINNING Day!

Much like yesterday I had a "best" bet on the turf scratch due to the race being taken off the inner course; but they kept the featured 9th on the grass where my "other best" was running.  The day started with a score in the opener.  Fearless Cowboy was 5/1 in the program, but was nearly certain to be well bet.  He was first off the claim for Midwest Thoroughbreds and trainer Jamie Ness who win with 36% of those.  Even better, Ness is a Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club member with runners making their first start of the meet - 45%.  I felt lucky to get the 5/2 and felt very good about myself as Fearless Cowboy was loose on the lead turning for home.  But as they hit the final 16th he was tiring....where's the wire????!!!!!! 

Whew!  That was close!  But still, I cashed for close to $20.  In was a disappointing 5th at a big 6/1 in the second.  No selections until the 8th when I took Todd Pletcher's Golden Lad.  He had paired top efforts off the layoff while going this one-turn mile distance, HERE.  He was six clear of the show off a two-month break then scored last time out against nw1x company.  Pletcher is the CEO of the GP 40% Club with ELEVEN winning angles that score at the 40% rate or better.  Stepping up in class is a 47% win angle, so I took him.  I decided there were at least two others that were legitimate threats, so I only bet the minimum.  As they hit the 16th pole my "other" pick, Valid (who was the favorite) was cruising on the lead and Golden Lad was trying to wear him down.  Inside the final two hundred yards he found another gear and surged to the wire to score. 

Hard to believe that a Todd Pletcher horse, much less one with all those angles, would pay over $10!  And with that I'm a guaranteed winner on the day!  Next up was my "best" of the day.  Madame Giry was a multiple stakes winner sprinting on the turf and today she was in a non-winners of money allowance event.  I thought Shrinking Violet would provide the most competition, but she'd never seen the kind of class company Madame Giry had.  Sure enough as they turned for home Shrinking Violet slipped through the inside to take the lead as Madame Giry ranged up on the outside, four wide.  The gauntlet was thrown down and they battled through the lane, one head up and one head down......PHOTO FINISH

Oh, it was close, but I knew.....second best.  In the last selection of the day I liked Cytherean on the turf.  He was claimed for $16K and confidently raised to $25K today....and the barn had scored with four of it's last ten first off the claim runners.  Evenly at 9/2, fifth.  Much like yesterday I was very pleased with the final numbers.....2-for-5, an excellent 40%, with a profit of nearly $10.

Day 13

Opening Day At Santa Anita

The good news is that I won for the day....the bad news is that I had all but one selection at Gulfstream washed away by the showers on Wednesday evening and this morning.  Included in those wash-outs was a BIG-TIME investment on Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Major Marvel who had looked TONS the best on the turf.  The lone selection that ran was on the main track where I liked Early Glory.  She had run exclusively at Woodbine and it's always a big question how the Canadian shippers will handle the real dirt here, but she had a big bullet work in :59.4 so it appeared she'd taken to the track.  The crowd agreed with my analysis and she left the post as the 6/5 post-time favorite.  Never really threatened and crossed the finish line a well beaten last of seven runners.  One other item worth mentioning is that on Wednesday I had the chance to hook up with one of my very favorite former students, Jen Schneider.  I'd been her WISE mentor and had stopped in Denver to see here at the University of California when he was struggling as a freshman (on my way to visit Jeff in California).  We've always had a connection.....it was great to spend the afternoon with her.  On to California! 

It was ironic that when I handicapped the card I originally had selections in the first four races.  But after picking four straight favorites I reconsidered, thinking I wanted to be more selective and besides, what were the odds that all four would win?  Knowing my luck with the short priced favorites I'd probably win two of four, a big 50% and be down money!  So I scratched the first two.  You can guess.....they both won!  And what would normally be the case the next two would have lost, but not today Webby!  In my first pick of the new Santa Anita meet, I liked Buckingham Bill on he turf.  He had a woeful turf career box of 10/1-3-2, but the competition he faced today were simply a bunch of horses that just did NOT want to win.  As heads turned for home he was in position to win, but didn't have the acceleration to pass the front runners.  I kept thinking, you know you want to let him win to those front runners, and sure enough in the final 16th it was like they saw him and said, "...sure, YOU go ahead, we don't want to win!"  WHOOO HOOO, I cashed for over $20 and I'm ahead for the day just like that! 

My next pick came in the fourth where Five Palms.  He had won as a debut runner for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, no surprise, but had broken behind the field in his first try against winners.  In addition he was carried wide into the lane and still was flying late to miss by a mere length.  He earned a big 96 number for the effort and had fired a sizzling bullet work in :59 and change for today.  But as they turned for home he had a lot of work to do.......yet, like he had in his last he showed a big late kick and went flying by to score by daylight!  TWO-for-TWO at the "Great Race Place!" 
I was now guaranteed a winning day.  And it was a good thing because my top choices in the three graded stakes later in the card all failed to produce.  Upset pick Madame Cactus (7/2 at post time) was never in it, 6th in the Grade 1 La Brea despite a perfect 2-for-2 record at the distance;  No Jet Leg was third as the 7/5 favorite in the Grade 2 Sir Beaufort - puzzling as he'd beaten older company, including multiple graded stakes winner Obviously at Del Mar, but couldn't beat strictly sophomores today; and finally I liked Chad Brown's Baaken in the Grade 1 Malibu.  Brown doesn't ship runners across the country just "to see" how they'll run, so I felt certain he'd run a big race.  He was well played at 5/2, but when asked for run at the top of the lane he finished evenly, 5th.

Still, I'll take the two-for-six (33%) day and a flat bet profit!

Monday, December 23, 2013

Day 12

WIN - WIN - WIN To Start The Day!

I was very pleased with the way the races turned out today - scored 50% on the day; hit with three out of four added money investments, including the two co-best selections; and nearly had a $10 horse in another race.  I had six selections on the day and the first three were the "big bets" of the day.  After the way Saturday had gone I didn't know what to expect.

In the 3rd race my top selection was Scatter Joy.  It was a nw2L sprint and the fact that Scatter Joy had never been entered for a tag, much less a conditioned claiming tag AND that he was lightly raced would have made him the top pick.  But as I looked through the field he was facing a woeful field of runners.  He looked to have the race sewn up if he just showed up with any kind of effort.  I thought he had enough speed to clear the field and take them gate to wire if necessary, but he also had a great stalking post if someone wanted to go stupid-fast to the front.  He was hammered down to 3/5 at post time and rocketed out of the gate to quickly go clear of the field.  The opening quarter was fast, but not too fast to worry.....but when the half was posted in :44 and change I was worried he had gone too fast, too soon.  Not to worry, long gone as the rest ran to their paper form.  I'd doubled the bet and collected over $15. 

In the 4th I had what I thought was an even bigger standout.  It was a one-turn mile claiming event and Toh's Grey Cat was my selection.  He was being sent out by trainer Peter Walder who is a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club member with seven different angles.  'Cat qualified on three of those:  second start off a layoff (44%), class dropper (43%), and running in a dirt route (43%).  All of this pointed him out as the pick, but on Thursday my BEST of the day had been a Walder runner who had also qualified on multiple 40% Club angles.  That one had wired a one-turn mile field by going way-too-fast, but just kept running.  I was thinking today would be much the same.....and it was!  He was in command from the get-go and was L-O-N-G GONE!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Two in a row!

And right back in the 5th I had another big-time investment.  This time it was a Todd Pletcher runner.  As I wrote in m analysis, Catron was the prototype profile of a Pletcher winner at Gulfstream.  He'd debuted months ago with a dominant win, then went to the shelf and now showed up here.  His works were good, and the fact that Pletcher is the CEO of the Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club with three working angles here (dirt sprinters-42%, wins early at GP-40%, and steps up in class-47%) just solidified the selection.  Unlike the first two picks, he was quickly outrun through the opening quarter.  And the way speed had appeared to be holding I was a little worried when he was over six lengths behind them to the far turn.  But then Javier Castellano said GO! and he quickly reeled in the leaders and ran away in ultra-impressive fashion!  Three in a row and I was guaranteed to profit on the day! 

I wish I had an answer for why I handicapped and bet the next two races.  Both were two-year-old maiden races on the turf, and both had Todd Pletcher horses.  I say all the time that "you are either with Pletcher or not" and "you can't guess when he's live".....and yet that is just what I did.  I would say for myself that Pletcher's weakest angle is turf routers and that has seemed to be the case through the first eleven days, but still.  I passed on Canzoni (5/2) in the sixth going two turns, and backed Sandowner (2/1) in the 7th, a turf sprint.  You can probably guess, but he first one won and Sandowner was second.  Even worse, Canzoni was allowed to float up to 7/1 and paid $17.  My standard bet on a Pletcher horse is $10, so I passed up on an $85 payout.....sigh.......you'd think I'd learn. 

In the eighth my pick was Chad Browns turf runner All Star Kitten.  And as you can imagine from the name, she was owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  She was allowed to go off at 4/1.  She sat the perfect trip, just off a slow pace set by a longshot, and she opened up in the stretch.  But then here came another 'Kitten runner for different owners and it was a stretch duel.  It was oh so close and I honestly didn't know which way the finish would go.  The photo came up and I was second by the narrowest of margins.  And in the last race on my selection sheet Neck 'n Neck ran an even fourth in the Harlan's Holiday Stakes.  The last thing worth noting for the day was that today was the final race card at Hollywood Park in California.  After 75 years of history and tradition the property is being sold because it is on prime commercial real estate....sad.  Click here to visit the web page with photos from my visit there in November 2011.

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Days 10 & 11

BET of the Day - WINS
UPSET of the Day - WINS

A mixed bag of results for today, but considering the weather, the company, and the bottom line it was a good day overall.  After the big day Thursday that saw me cash ten tickets from just 18 selections the Friday card was one of the weakest I've ever seen at Gulfstream.  I struggled to find any horses that I liked, and on many races any to even talk about having a more than reasonable chance to win.  In retrospect I probably would have been well advised to simply pass the entire day, but I found three runners that I thought had enough of an edge to bet on.  A Chad Brown first-timer on the turf went off at 2/1 and was a non-threatening sixth; a Peter Walder GP Handicapper 40% Club play was second best at 2/1 and finally, a Todd Pletcher debuting juvenile was third at 4/5.  Zero for three on the day, but I was looking forward to Saturday's adventure.  I had several selections that while I figured them to be short prices, I also figured them to be very likely winners.  The plan was for Kim and I to head out to Gulfstream for a day of racing and then dinner, and to be joined for the action on track by her gal-pal Elaine.  We arrived in plenty of time for the first race and took "our seats" - Section 101, Seats 5 & 6 - and then asked the lady who "guards" the seats & takes tickets to take a photo of us....it turned out great! 

Then it was time for the opener.... I had mixed feelings about the opener because I believed my pick was a near-certain winner, but I can't remember ever having my "Bet of the Day" being in the first race of the day.  A loss to start the day would not be the way I wanted to begin.  Still, I found Black Karma too good on paper to pass up, check his pps: 

Not only did he look good on paper, but I had a little historical background on him.  He'd been my top selection a couple weeks ago as a MTO horse, but the race stayed on the turf so he scratched.  Then a week ago Thursday I thought he had a legitimate upset chance against Todd Pletcher's budding star Zaikov in an open allowance test.  But, if you remember the journal from that day Black Karma scratched out of that spot as well.  So he shows up here today for a $25K tag in a "beaten" claimer.  He just laid over the field, but I still had two reservations......first, if his connections considered him good enough for open allowance company, what was he doing in here for a mere $25K?  And second, his two dominant wins had com at 5 1/2 furlongs and 6 furlongs.  When he tried the added 16th two back he led into the lane and weakened - was that a distance issue or simply facing first time winners?  Because today we were going SEVEN furlongs - would he weaken again?  In the end my reasoning was.....

Team Calabrese has so many horses in the barn that they nearly always put them in spots to win, period.  Even if it is a weaker group than their horse should be running in; they figure they'll take the claiming price and the purse and go get another horse.  As for the distance, I thought he just looked too fast and too talented NOT to win.  When I first went to the windows he was sitting at 1-9 on the board - even Black Karma did not deserve those kinds of odds.  But I made a "prime time" bet on him.  He floated to 1/5 which was fair, then 2/5 which I was happy about, and then 3/5 which I thought was a real overlay for his legitimate chances to win.  And as they broke out of the gate he was an excellent 1/2.  When they flashed past the opening quarter and the odds came up on the screen, he'd taken a TON of late money and was back to 1/5!  He led comfortably to the final 16th before beginning to tire, but while a long shot was coming to him he was never going to get there before the wire......winner, winner, chicken dinner!  WHOOO HOOO! 

My next four races were all losses, and was a preview of the way the day was going to go.  In the second I went against what I was sure would be a short-priced favorite at Aqueduct in favor of a first-timer for Team Pletcher.  I got a good price 3/1, but he was never in it - 5th. Then at Tampa, Gulfstream and again at Aqueduct I got a trio of thirds.  At Tampa I was in striking position, but never made a threatening move; at Gulfstream we were on the turf and before they hit the first turn I was next to last....rallied nicely but was way too far back to really threaten; and finally a big surprise at Aqueduct.  It was the Don Rickles Stakes for two-year-olds, and while I admit that Beyers must be taken with a grain of salt in juvenile races (and with maidens for that matter), Pure Sensation's last two efforts not only were better than all sixteen efforts of his rivals today, but were double digit better than 15 of the 16 races run.  It doesn't get much better.  He stalked the pace, and then could not get by the second choice.....and was run by late by another - third!  Sooooo, I bet a horse who's clearly superior on figures and not only does he lose to another horse who runs his lifetime best, but a second runner ALSO runs a lifetime best?  Wow. 

Next up was my second-most likely winner at Gulfstream.  Take Time to Pray was entered in a non-winners of two lifetime event.  He was another Team Calabrese runner, and trainer Kirk Ziadie sported 42% winners with class droppers, good enough to make the Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club!  Jockey Luis Saez was a huge 50% winner for the outfit over the last two years and he just looked much the best.  I tripled the bet and he rolled wire-to-wire! 

No sooner was that race official and they were off at Aqueduct in the 4th.  It was 1 mile and seventy yards for maiden special juveniles.  I liked Todd Pletcher-trained, Michael Repole-owned Monopolize.  He'd broken dead last from a wide post last time in his debut then rallied strongly, but still earned a field-best speed figure.  He was bet down to 4/5 and as they spun out of the far turn he was third behind the second choice and a 30-1 longshot with lots of work to do.  I think even at the furlong marker if you'd offered to buy my ticket I would have sold it!  But inside the final 16th Monopolize found another gear and accelerated past the 30-1 longshot to score!  Two in a row!  That one went official and they were off at Tampa.  I debated back and forth about backing the obvious favorite, Floor Money.  He was dropping from open allowance into a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event.  On paper he looked much the best, especially with a weight break due to a ten-pound apprentice rider.  Floor Money sat third to the turn and then glided up to poke a head in front mid-way on the turf with little effort.  As they turned for home the front-runner hugged the rail and the apprentice (or perhaps the horse, but it's the jockey's responsibility) floated wide, losing at least two lengths.  Still, he had the momentum and within a hundred yards he had collared the leader again and still had not been asked.  But the leader would not give in and it became an all out battle to the wire.  It was awfully close, and fifty yards out I would have told you the inside front-runner had the edge, but on the wire I got the final bob.  Just to be certain I watched the slo-mo replay and the outside horse, the #9, Floor Money was in front.  Guys all around me were swearing because they'd bet against the favorite!  THREE IN A ROW, so I went outside to video the sequence of winning selections.  Then I came back in to cash my tickets.  Gulfstream winner - $24; Aqueduct winner - $18.50; Tampa winner - "I'm sorry, that ticket isn't a winner" said the clerk.  She ran it through again, and I said, "That's not right, it was a photo finish, and I saw him win.....then she printed out the official prices.  It said that in the 4th at Tampa, the #9 ran second.  I know you can't argue with the computer, but still, I thought something had to be wrong......I turned to the monitors and they were showing the replay......I watched, I was sure I won.  Then the photo came up......

I am even more sure I won.....look at it, isn't my horse's head - the dark nose of the #9 on the outside in front the winner?  Still, I'm thinking, something must not be right with my bet or my ticket.  Then the official prices come up - the winner #1, second #9.  WOW.  As if I needed any kick-start to a series of oh-so-close-without-winning races......the racing gods must have had a field day over the next three hours torturing me.  Third at 7/1 over the Calder turf when I made a threatening move on the turn making me think I had the winner; a surging second at Gulfstream where as I watched on the rail I thought I'd caught the front runner; a best-of-the-rest second at Tampa over the turf; a fast closing second at Gulfstream where again at the top of the lane I thought, and the way announcer Larry Colmus called it HE thought, Kaigun would win.....second again.  At Calder, I ran second, AGAIN, then after a non-threatening fifth at Gulfstream I was second in the feature at Aqueduct, the Gravesend Handicap.  My pick, Palace, was on a three-race win streak, had a perfect pace set-up, and had just beaten the second choice in the Grade 3 Fall Highweight.  But today when I came running, the second choice didn't stop.....you guessed it, SECOND, AGAIN!  Non-threatening finishes (4th and 5th) at the Fair Grounds and Calder before finally I hit the winner's circle after three long hours of "close, but no cigar" finishes. 

It was the second race at Hollywood Park, a 6 1/2 furlong claiming event.  The logical horses did not inspire me, but on the rail Courtside intrigued me.  Going back through his past performances he had once been a very quick horse, but age seemed to have caught up to him.  In his last several he ran slower and struggled to get to the front.  Today he was coming off a layoff, and here was the first thing that caught my eye - he had two razor-sharp workouts in :59 and change.....that's sizzling time my friend!  Today he drew the rail, so you know his rider would send him to the front, and best of all, there did not seem to be any other horses who wanted the front.  I thought he'd break sharply, clear the field and the riders on the logical winners would allow him to go "knowing" he'd stop once they turned for home.  As they were loading into the gate he was 6/1.  As he raced past the opening quarter pole the odds flashed up at 8/1!  A guy standing next to me was talking out loud, "that's right, save him on the rail, control the pace.......don't push him, don't ask him yet...."  He's seen the same thing I did.  They turned for home and Courtside was comfortably in front by four and had yet to be asked.  At the furlong markers the favorites began to move, but that's when our rider asked for more and Courtside spurted clear.  The guy was cheering out loud as Courtside flashed under the wire.  He looked down at his program and I said, "much the best....." - he looked up with a smile and I said, "MUCH the best!"  He chuckled and said, did you see those works in :59 and change?  Oh yeah I said, I saw them.  Then the prices came up - $18.60 to win.  And best of all, I'd not only labeled him my Hollywood Park UPSET Special, I'd doubled the investment! 

I was going to cash for nearly $100!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Especially on days where I am not cashing a lot of tickets I purposefully do NOT add up how I'm doing for the day.  It's clear I'm not winning money on the day, so why discourage myself and either (a) lose confidence in my picks, or (b) begin to chase money by increasing the bets or changing my picks to longshots.  I've found if I just go with what I had already decided the outcomes will eventually even out - if not today, then on another day.  Still, as I flipped though my picks, I saw several minimum bets, and with a near $100 return here, I thought I might have just "saved the day" from being a big losing day. 

My good fortune didn't last too long as moments later at Gulfstream I was second AGAIN, this time at 3/1.  Then at Tampa I was third at 4/5 when I could not catch the dueling front runners over the turf.  As they loaded into the gate for the Gulfstream feature, the Grade 3 Dania Beach at a mile on the turf for two-year-olds I explained to Kim and Elaine that my top pick was my pick for the same reason I was afraid he would NOT win.  They looked at me puzzled and I explained that Bon Accord had last run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf where he finished a close fourth beaten by two top Europeans (the winner paid over $14 and was my top pick!) and arguably the best US two-year-old turf runner, Bobby's Kitten.  So he outclassed the field.  But, I continued, very often horses exiting the Breeders' Cup do not run well in their next start.  I concluded by saying, I went with him though because of the eight horses lined up today, at least six of them want to be in front and he will come from off the pace, which gives me a tactical advantage!  No sooner had I said that than the gates sprung open and the stretch-out sprinter burst to the front in the first fifty yards.....but then with rush from between horses here came the #6 to grab the lead - who's that?  BON ACCORD!  Kim turned to me before they even hit the first turn and said, "Didn't you just say he would NOT go to he lead?"  Sigh......as they rounded the turn I replied, "...well, if he wins, then the jockey was smart because the turf has been playing well to front runners.  I set the pace through the far turn and when heads turned for home I had a short burst to hold the lead, but then here came the closers and I gradually faded to sixth.  Figures.......I went inside to watch Hollywood's 4th - a Bob Baffert second time two-year-old with go-to rider Martin Garcia on board, automatic bet.  Right to the front and long gone.... to the final fifty yards where he was caught and finished second!  The finale at Gulfstream was one guy's "BEST" of the day, and Twigazuri Strait looked to be the best on paper.  He was a generous 3/1 at post time came running late....to be third.  Sigh......

Kim and I said goodbye to Elaine and were about to head to "The Yardhouse" for dinner when my next pick, the Tenacious Handicap from the Fair Grounds went to post.  The way the race was bet surprised me.....there were two local horses, allowance runners at best, who drew the most attention.  I had centered my attention on multiple-graded stakes winner Prayer For Relief.  Just this summer he'd been a photo finish nose second in a $200K race.  While I'll admit he wasn't nearly the same horse he was a couple of years ago, he was exiting the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, AND his career earnings of $1.5 million was more than the COMBINED earnings of the rest of the field.  I believed that the drop from Grade 1 company to a $75K overnight/listed stakes would be just the spot for him to show his best.  As they moved down the backstretch he sat in third, with a pocket trip behind battling front runners, while clear of the rest of the field.  As they approached the far turn the rider sent him through and opening on the rail and you could just read his mind thinking, "....I'm going to win this race RIGHT NOW!...." as he accelerated away from the field.  By the time they all straightened for home he was clear by two and it was all over by the shouting as he drew off to score by six widening lengths!  Better yet, the crowd had let him go off at 7/2 odds - his payoff of $9.00 along with my double investment netted me nearly $50!  Kim and I headed over to the restaurant and had a nice dinner.  This also allowed the crowd/traffic to thin, and when we left a little after 7 pm we had an easy drive home! 

I still had four races on my selection sheet, so as soon as we got home I opened up twinspires.com and watched the replays.  In the 9th at the Fair Grounds, another listed stakes on their "Super Santa Saturday" card my pick, former Grade 1 winner King David made a mild late rally but was sixth across the line.  At Hollywood I had another upset selection and it looked like Horse-for-the-Course Foxy Boss might score as she threatened moving through the turn at 9/2.  But she flattened out through the lane.  Curls For Girls had run really well to be second off the layoff and had a bullet work for today's maiden special race at the Fair Grounds....top rider Rosie Napravnik sealed the deal.  She was 9/5 and never in it - 8th.  I scored my final win of the day in the finale at Hollywood.  It was the Soviet Problem Stakes for two-year-olds.  Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was going for a Hollywood Park stakes record for a fall meeting, looking to surpass legendary Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham.  Top rider Rafael Bejarano was on board the favorite, my pick, Swiss Lake Yodeler who was a neck away from a perfect 3-for-3 record.  As they came out of the turn she was wide and in fourth and looked to be struggling to gain ground.  At the furlong marker she was slowly wearing down the two survivors of the pace duel, but she was not accelerating enough to win......but as they came to the 16th pole she found another gear for Bejarano - who never went to the whip - and she blew by to score.  My double investment netted nearly $20. 

For the day I had only cashed on six selections, while running second or third on THIRTEEN occasions.  But because of the two big payoffs late in the day my losses for the day were "normal" and I could honestly say that if any two of my close finishers had scored I would have profited for the day despite the low win percentage.  Tomorrow is the last day of racing before Christmas week, but more importantly it's closing day for Hollywood Park - forever.  After 75 years of racing ownership is selling the property because the commercial area it is located in makes it too valuable a piece of property to keep.....never mind the history and tradition that will be bulldozed under.  I was happy to learn Jeff and Antoinette will be in the clubhouse for the final day of racing.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Day 9

TEN WINS!
AN AMAZING DAY!

What a way to start the week off, and as is typically the case, what a great story yesterday was.  When I handicapped the Thursday card - yes, we've moved to a four-day-a-week calendar as of this week - I found seven of the ten races that I liked a runner and two that qualified for "Prime Time" investments.  The weather has been fabulous all week, with today supposed to be the last day of the coolish temps, so I thought today would be a great day to spend at the races.  As I wrote on my Facebook status, "Five years ago I would have said, a beautiful Thursday like today, and I'm inside working....when I retire, on days like today I can enjoy being outside at Gulfstream Park!"  And, there I was!  Once I'd made the decision to head out to Gulfstream for the day I considered if I wanted to get the DRF and handicap other cards.  In the end I decided that I didn't want to make it an all-out assault on the track, I wanted a more laid-back day, but at the same time I wanted to have more races than once every 30 minutes or so.  I decided to resurrect an old handicapping formula of mine which I called, "Handicapping the Handicappers."  I used to do this frequently during the Summer Racing season when I'd spend all day Friday handicapping, go to the races all day Saturday, and then want to play on Sunday.  But it's been a while, especially since I've retired that I have done this.  So, here's how it works/worked......I went online to see which tracks that I like to play were running today, AND which ones had an online handicapper's analysis of more than just their projected winner.  I found four such tracks, but Turfway didn't have a first post until 6:30 pm so I tossed those.  I was left with three tracks that I frequently handicap:  Aqueduct, Hawthorne, and the Fair Grounds.  Then I printed out the analysis for each of their handicappers.....
 
The next step is to read through their top selections and decided if I like and/or agree with their picks.  I have found in the past that I am pretty adept at deciphering when a handicapper likes a horse, or has simply selected him because he's supposed to pick three potential winners for every race.  And with the many years of experience that I've got in doing that I can also tell when they really like a horse.  So, I read through all three of their analysis online.  From Aqueduct I found four races where I liked Beer's top selections.  At Hawthorne I found three races of Ron Uchman's analysis where I liked the picks, but one of them I liked the third choice rather than the top pick; and from the Fair Grounds I found three races where I liked how Spencer had described the chances of picks.  So combined with my seven selections at Gulfstream I had seventeen picks on the day, all of them about 15-to-20 minutes apart.  By the end of the day I had cashed on TEN RACES!  The weather was fabulous, as expected, but wow, what a GREAT DAY at the races! 

Here's the odd thing, which makes today such a great story......at Gulfstream I was only 1-for-7!  And the ten races where I'd handicapped the handicappers I cashed tickets on nine of the ten races I'd selected!  Three of them were NOT the favorite either!  OH MY!  So let's take a quick look back at the day's action, track-by-track, starting with Gulfstream......

In the Gufstream opener I went with what turned out to be the post-time favorite, Todd Pletcher's debuting 2-year-old Coach Inge.  He looked like the best of the two Pletcher runners and had top rider Javier Castellano on board, but he broke slowly and had too much ground to make up, 4th.  In the second I had the second choice on the turf, Kingofalldiamonds.  Jockey Paco Lopez gave him a great ground-saving trip and as they turned for home he easily galloped to the front while skimming the rail.  Announcer Larry Colmus even called out at the furlong marker, "Paco Lopez confidently has him under a hand ride."  Then here came the favorite roaring through the lane. No problem, Paco would ask for a little acceleration and that would be that.....no response, ran right by him in the final fifty yards - 2nd.  Seriously?  In the fourth it was DRF's Mike Welch's "Best" of the day, and I doubled the investment on Laura Golightly.  She was another Pletcher runner stretching out to two tuns after a sprint debut.  Not only did she look good, but none of the eight others had anything I could say positively about their chances.  She was 6/5, but trailed from the beginning and never picked up her feet - 8th (typical for a Welsch "best" I've found).  In the fifth Team Calabrese and 40% trainer Kirk Ziadie sent out Distinctive Move.  He was dropping in class and got Luis Saez to ride, a 35% winning rider for the outfit.  The only caveat was that he'd run second in back-to-back races, in photo finishes, as the odds-on favorite.  Today he was outrun by a 30-1 shot and rallied belatedly to be second best, again.  I kept thinking that my "BEST" bets were coming up, just hang in there.  In the 6th was the first of the two.  And honestly I had considered making Sonja's Angle a BIG Best Bet, while keeping the later one as a "prime time" bet.  But in the end I kept the bets of equal value.  Sonja's Angel dueled through a wicked :22 and change opening quarter going a mile - way too fast of a pace, especially under pressure; then an absurd :45 and change half while under pressure.  I thought as they hit the far turn, "there's no way she hangs on unless Peter Walder, her trainer, had some magic up his sleeve, because Sonja's Angel qualified as a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play on FIVE different angles!  As they turned for home, Sonja drew away from the pace rival in a 1:09 split, and surprisingly no one was gaining!  She walked with it!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

And here's an oddity, my wife's high school number in all three varsity sports and still her favorite number is 43 - four of the five angles that Walder scored at 40% or higher were 43% win percentages!  As I wrote in my analysis, that can't be a coincidence!  I cashed for over $30 and was close to even locally.  It was a cool moment when I went to cash my ticket because in the fifteen minutes prior to Sonja's Angel winning, I had won races at all three of the other tracks and my cash payout was $99.00! 

In the 8th Workin For Hops (who'd won for me last winter) was my upset pick, 6th at 4/1.  And finally my last "Best" in the 9th.  Ready to Act had scored with authority in her turf debut for Chad Brown.  Then she was the favorite in Woodbine's Grade 2 Natalma Stakes; she opened up in mid-stretch well on her way to a win when suddenly she made a sharp left hand turn into the rail and tossed the rider!  Brown sent her to the Breeders' Cup and in the Juvenile Fillies Turf she dueled from the far outside post all the way into mid-stretch before fading.  The drop into this nw1x allowance spot should be a perfect confidence builder for her.  She rated off the pace, moved to the front at the top of the lane (but without the kind of acceleration I was expecting) but was then run down by an 8/1 longshot who Gulfstream analyst Christina Bossinakis had given out, not only over the local monitors, but to a national HRTV audience. Well done Christina!

Let's back up and review at Aqueduct......the second race saw St. Sincere hammered down to 3/5 as part of a powerful entry. They ran to their odds and finished 1-2....in the 4th I went with Boundy Pink.  I thought I might get a price as she was moving from turf to dirt after a dismal last race effort, but as Beer pointed out, trainer Linda Rice had used this same move (also a dull turf effort) with a winner last week.  She galloped home as much the best at 1/2, I cashed again!  In the fifth I liked Street Thug the best of all the Aqueduct selections, so I doubled the bet.  He had once been considered a talented runner for Todd Pletcher, but had never realized his potential.  Today he was dropped into a non-winners-of-two-lifetime claiming event and he was either going to be tons the best or off the board.....he was tons th best at 4/5.  The last play at Aqueduct was in the 6th.  Possetivevibration was Beer's "BEST" of the day, but I was only going to go in for the minimum.  She was being well bet and he was on a roll, so I went back to the windows and doubled my bet.....she drew off as MUCH the best and I was home free with another winner and another $20!  That topped off a perfect 4-for-4 afternoon in snowy New York!

A big tip of the hat to Mike Beer......one reason I had doubled the bet on Possetivevibration was I had gone back and checked all his picks after my win in the fifth.....he was second in the opener; won the second (with me), won the third, won the 4th (with me), won the 5th (with me), and then won the 6th (with me).  I considered betting his last three but decided to stick with my original decision only to watch his top choices win the 7th, 8th, and 9th.....he was an amazing NINE-for-TEN on the day.  Very well done Mr. Beer!

At Hawthorne I scored in the second when Queen of Scioto stalked the pace and then drew off as much the best.  Much to my delight she was 7/2 on the board, and I was cashing for over $20!  I doubled the bet on odds-on chalk Abuginmymargarita in the 3rd.  She went right to the front but was nailed inside the final fifty yards, second.  But I came right back to win with Baba Lucy in the 6th.  That was interesting because it was one of my two final bets that were scheduled to go off after I left.  But the traffic was so bad I was stuck at a light and so I opened my phone up for the replay and watched it on my phone at the light.  She scored at a nice $6 and put me into the black for the day! 

The final track on my selection sheet was the Fair Grounds from New Orleans.  I like to follow Katie Mikolay's picks, especially since she is so good looking and I've met her, spent some time with her.  But she is on maternity leave and so Brian Spencer is the local analyst this winter.  I liked what I'd read in three of his races, the first of which was the third.  I was outside watching Sonja's Angel win the 6th at Gulfstream when the race went off, so as I walked in I looked up at the monitor and I saw a runner at the Fair Grounds blow by the front runner and draw off with authority....what's the number?  "6" I recognized from the gold character on the black saddle cloth....my pick, Happisoutback is number 6!  And best of all, the final odds flashed up.....she was 7/2!  The payoff was $9.60 and I was cashing for nearly $25.  Interestingly this was in the same sequence when Queen of Scioto scored at Hawthorne at $9.00!  Next in New Orleans was the 6th where Spencer had written, "Hopeful Notion is clearly the one to beat.  He returns off the bench for a barn that owns serious sats in all the applicable categories and brings a solid series of works with him."  That my friends is a handicapper telling you he LIKES this horse a lot!  I doubled the investment.  Well, he won - that's the good news - but he struggled to put away the second choice until the final fifty yards.  But hey, a win is a win, and I was collecting another $15.  The final race for me at the Fair Grounds was the last race on my sheet and I had to watch the replay online once I got home.  I had backed Isanford, who was not Spencer's top pick, but I liked that he'd described him as a potential lone speed.  Everyone knows speed rarely wins at the Fair Grounds (turf or dirt), so I thought I'd get at least his 3/1 program odds.  Nope, the crowd bet him down to even money and he did indeed wire the field with ease! 

So I ad TEN wins from just 17 selections, nearly 60%!  And a clear profit on the day.  It was nice to get a pack of winners as I'm nearly certain I've been below my typical 30% so far in this opening month.  Just three picks on a weak Friday card tomorrow, then a full slate on Saturday as Kim and I are hosting one of her good friends to a day at the races!

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Day 8

Hit My "BEST BET" To Close The Week

I was nearly certain that today would be a "balance out" day of racing. After winning but a single race on the Gulfstream card Saturday, I thought the week would end with multiple wins. When I had handicapped the day's races I at first thought this would be a day with very few plays. The first four races not only produced a single horse I liked, but the three passes were all quickly dismissed with little to write about. But through the second half of the card I found back-to-back double investments and a "BET of the DAY" in the eighth. I was a close third in the opener and a very distance 10th in the fifth. My selection in the sixth was a huge 15/1, and was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play; I was thinking I was about to make the meet's first big score until Mr. Candy ran ninth and last. Sigh.....In the 7th I had the 2/1 favorite in Dancing For Glory who was a generous 2/1. With my double investment I was about to win my first race and suddenly be in the black for the day. She was settled in second comfortably behind a 40/1 front runner. When the rider asked, she responded kindly, only to discover the longshot had plenty left....really? Second again! My top pick in the featured South Beach Stakes scratched; and then it was time for my "BEST" of the day. Onlyforyou was being sent out by Todd Pletcher. She had blasted maidens at Aqueduct 35 days ago, qualifying her as a 40% Club play with Pletcher winning 45% of his starters off a 31-60 day break. And with the step up to face winners here, she was also a Club play with Pletcher winning an astounding 47% with his horses moving up in class. Toss in his 42% win ratio with dirt sprinters and it was a no-brainer. Over the years one of the most common Todd Pletcher winning profiles is this kind of runner. They win big, and typically in their maiden. Then Pletcher gives them time off, and they resurface here sporting solid works.

Onlyforyou stalked the second choice while being pinned inside two other rivals on the rail through the turn. But as they spun out of the turn the outside runners couldn't go with the top two. Javier Castellano eased Onlyforyou off the rail, came to the front runner and let her go. She drew off powerfully as MUCH the best on the day. The near $40 payoff nearly brought me even for the day in spite of a one-for-five record.
 

Day 7

Grade 3 Sugar Swirl Day
Disappointment Overall - SOOO Many Seconds

I was really looking forward to today's races.  Not only because it was the first graded stakes of the winter racing season, but because I was going to be joined on track by two former students who seemed genuinely excited to go to the races with me, and my father-in-law Ed who always seems to enjoy a day of racing with me. 
Amit - Tori - Ed - Yours Truly
 
Shortly after the day's action began we had our first selection, the opener in New York where it was snowing to beat the band!  Amit had a thousand questions about how racing works, how handicapping works and I enjoyed explaining the basics of this great game to him.  Dance I Can was our horse and he was the 3/5 favorite.  He stalked the leader, and forged to the front as they turned for home.  But then inside the final 16th a closer ran us down and we were second.  We watched the opener at Gulfstream, but I had passed the race.  The DRF's Mike Welsch had made the favorite in the race his "best" of the day and Ed had played him to win!  My top pick in the second at Gulfstream scratched, but I had a horse in the second at Calder.  Amit and I went inside and watched as Back In A Minute loaded into the gate as the 3/5 favorite.  It was THEN that I noted the race was off the turf!  Go figure, but hey, it's Calder.....80+ and sunny and we are on the turf at Gulfstream, but not at Calder.  I told Amit I might have reconsidered had I noted the change in surface.  But it didn't matter, Back In Time was MUCH the best!  Very exciting for Amit to have bet his first winner! 

We went outside to watch the second at Gulfstream and Ed had bet on my second choice (since my top pick was out) and despite the outside post Lochte won!  I was fourth at Aqueduct and third at Calder (t even money).  In my first bet at Gulfstream I picked Take My Time who went off at a very generous 9/2 to win.  My second choice was the favorite and we dueled to the quarterpole before I gave way....but held well for second.  Good bet, no money.  I missed in the fourth at Gulfstream when Real Estate Rich was never in it for Todd Pletcher.  Missed in the fifth at Gulfstream when Value Trap went off at a big 11/1, and went right to the front like I expected.  But he'd broken a step slowly, so he had to rush to make the lead and any hope of wiring the field by controlling the pace was lost - last of nine.  At the Fair Grounds All Woman looked much the best I the Louisiana Champions Lassie Stakes.  She tracked the leader, but was outfinished - second, AGAIN.  I was a little disappointed that Amit and Tori left at this point, but I was glad they had wanted to come out.

I was back in the winner's circle in the 6th at Calder.  I tripled the bet on Lookout Light.  Being sent out by trainer Kirk Ziadie who sported a phenomenal 41% win rate FOR THE YEAR, and an even better 51% mark at Calder!  Top rider Edgar Zayas was inning 53% for the ownership Team Calabrese.  Right to the front, had to endure some pressure, but had no real problems holding on to the wire! 

I nearly had a nice upset at Hawthorne, in the Illinois snow when first off the claim Copus was just a head back of the favorite after a furious stretch rally, to be SECOND again!  But I got my first (and as it turned out, my ONLY) win on Louisiana Champions Day in the Turf at the Fair Grounds when Hud's Rebellion blew by the field in the stretch to score as a double investment play :) 


The 7th at Gulfstream was an opportunity to make a fine score.  Palace Gate had hit the gate and thus broken slowly in his turf debut for Todd Pletcher.  But he came flying late to be fourth only missing by two lengths.  Today he was moved to the main track, a near 40% win move, and he was moving FROM maiden claimers to maiden special.  Normally that's a negative, but it is a 47% win angle for Pletcher.  I tripled the bet.  Sure enough, he was flying late.....but he'd broken behind the field and had WAY too much ground to make up, 3rd at a big 9/2.  That win would have been worth over $70, sigh......I was off the board in both the Queen County Stakes at Aqueduct an the Kenny Noe Jr. Handicap at Calder.  And I topped off the trifecta of missed stakes selections when odds-on favorite Sittin At The Bar was a dismal 5th as the heavy favorite at the Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Champions Ladies' Sprint.  The 8th at Gulfstream we were on the turf.  I liked Rope A Dope, and so that's who Ed went with.  Note my betting advice......"PASS."  Not only did he win, but he paid $19.80.  Sigh..... To add to my "misery" I had doubled the bet on the first of three graded stakes at Hollywood Park.  Temeraine was the 7/5 second choice and she forged to the lead at the top of the lane, but was caught nearing the wire to be SECOND.
 And then the race that at the end of the day summarized the day for me personally - the feature at Gulfstream Park, the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl.  There were six fillies and mares slated to start and four of them all did their best running in front.  It looked like an easy handicapping decision, who was the best finisher?  But the closer I looked at it, I thought that R Free Roll was the quickest of the quick, especially in breaking from the gate and through the opening quarter.  What if she broke right on top and cleared the field?  Suddenly a contested pace picture would become a "Lone Speed" pace picture.  And so that's how I bet the race.  Sure enough, when the gates sprung open R Free Roll cleared the field, and EASILY, in the first three jumps.  She was loose on the lead as they moved into the turn.  At this critical point where she needed to save energy for the stretch drive she was challenged by a longshot and she had to start to run with earnest.  She dismissed this rival and led into the final 16th..

I saw the closer coming, but she was inside the final 100 yards and I really thought that while it would be close, she had the finish line......oh so close, 2ND AGAIN. So typical of the day - can't win on the lead, coming from off the pace, with the chalk, with the price play.  Disappointing.  I was well beaten with the 7/5 favorite at the Fair Grounds and with the 6/5 favorite at Hollywood before FINALLY getting my lone win of the day on track. 

The 10th at Gulfstream was a claiming event on the turf.  I liked Target Sighted.  The conditions for the race read for runners who had run for a $16K tag without having won three races, OR not having won a race since June 13.  Well, Target Sighted only showed ONE race for a tag and that was a WIN for $25K; in fact she had finished in the money twice in stakes races!  AND she had four wins!  But, here's the key, her last win had come in May, so she met the restrictions.  She sat mid pack, saving ground on the rail through the turn and looked to have plenty of energy if she could get through.  Sure enough, a seam opened on the rail and she EXPLODED through to win by double digits under a hand ride.  The best part was she paid $6.00.  For the day, Ed cashed on four tickets, and had a winning day.  Me, I'd cashed on one ticket at Gulfstream.  As we walked out through the second floor simulcast area I saw the first of my "late races" flash by the wire, I had WON had Hawthorne in their feature, the Illinois Futurity.  I later watched the replay and Ramblin Richie had no problem dominating his rivals.  Paid a mere $5.00, but I cashed for $25, and I was happy just to have my pick finish in front! 

In the 9th at the Fair Grounds, the Louisiana Champions Juvenile Conteau Ridge was the even money favorite.  I liked the fact he would be tracking the pace because front runners never hold on in New Orleans.  He pressed the second choice who was on the lead and as they turned for home the rider asked, but the front runner just kept going, second, again.  I was off the board at 7/2 in the La Champions Classic before winning my first race at Hollywood Park.  Street Status had the best last race Beyer despite coming off a nine month layoff. Today he dropped from maiden specials into maiden claimers.  As expected he romped home as the 4/5 favorite. 

I was off the board in two of my last three, all of which were stakes.  And in the Grade 3 Native Diver I had finisher Hear the Ghost.  The leader was under pressure throughout setting it up for me, but when I came to him at the furlong marker he would not stop......second yet again.  For the day I'd cashed on six winners from 27 selections, a low 22% :(  Not what I was hoping for today.