Days 10 & 11

BET of the Day - WINS

UPSET of the Day - WINS

A mixed bag of results for today, but considering the weather, the company, and the bottom line it was a good day overall.  After the big day Thursday that saw me cash ten tickets from just 18 selections the Friday card was one of the weakest I've ever seen at Gulfstream.  I struggled to find any horses that I liked, and on many races any to even talk about having a more than reasonable chance to win.  In retrospect I probably would have been well advised to simply pass the entire day, but I found three runners that I thought had enough of an edge to bet on.  A Chad Brown first-timer on the turf went off at 2/1 and was a non-threatening sixth; a Peter Walder GP Handicapper 40% Club play was second best at 2/1 and finally, a Todd Pletcher debuting juvenile was third at 4/5.  Zero for three on the day, but I was looking forward to Saturday's adventure.  I had several selections that while I figured them to be short prices, I also figured them to be very likely winners.  The plan was for Kim and I to head out to Gulfstream for a day of racing and then dinner, and to be joined for the action on track by her gal-pal Elaine.  We arrived in plenty of time for the first race and took "our seats" - Section 101, Seats 5 & 6 - and then asked the lady who "guards" the seats & takes tickets to take a photo of us....it turned out great! 

Then it was time for the opener.... I had mixed feelings about the opener because I believed my pick was a near-certain winner, but I can't remember ever having my "Bet of the Day" being in the first race of the day.  A loss to start the day would not be the way I wanted to begin.  Still, I found Black Karma too good on paper to pass up, check his pps: 

Not only did he look good on paper, but I had a little historical background on him.  He'd been my top selection a couple weeks ago as a MTO horse, but the race stayed on the turf so he scratched.  Then a week ago Thursday I thought he had a legitimate upset chance against Todd Pletcher's budding star Zaikov in an open allowance test.  But, if you remember the journal from that day Black Karma scratched out of that spot as well.  So he shows up here today for a $25K tag in a "beaten" claimer.  He just laid over the field, but I still had two reservations......first, if his connections considered him good enough for open allowance company, what was he doing in here for a mere $25K?  And second, his two dominant wins had com at 5 1/2 furlongs and 6 furlongs.  When he tried the added 16th two back he led into the lane and weakened - was that a distance issue or simply facing first time winners?  Because today we were going SEVEN furlongs - would he weaken again?  In the end my reasoning was.....

Team Calabrese has so many horses in the barn that they nearly always put them in spots to win, period.  Even if it is a weaker group than their horse should be running in; they figure they'll take the claiming price and the purse and go get another horse.  As for the distance, I thought he just looked too fast and too talented NOT to win.  When I first went to the windows he was sitting at 1-9 on the board - even Black Karma did not deserve those kinds of odds.  But I made a "prime time" bet on him.  He floated to 1/5 which was fair, then 2/5 which I was happy about, and then 3/5 which I thought was a real overlay for his legitimate chances to win.  And as they broke out of the gate he was an excellent 1/2.  When they flashed past the opening quarter and the odds came up on the screen, he'd taken a TON of late money and was back to 1/5!  He led comfortably to the final 16th before beginning to tire, but while a long shot was coming to him he was never going to get there before the wire......winner, winner, chicken dinner!  WHOOO HOOO! 

My next four races were all losses, and was a preview of the way the day was going to go.  In the second I went against what I was sure would be a short-priced favorite at Aqueduct in favor of a first-timer for Team Pletcher.  I got a good price 3/1, but he was never in it - 5th. Then at Tampa, Gulfstream and again at Aqueduct I got a trio of thirds.  At Tampa I was in striking position, but never made a threatening move; at Gulfstream we were on the turf and before they hit the first turn I was next to last....rallied nicely but was way too far back to really threaten; and finally a big surprise at Aqueduct.  It was the Don Rickles Stakes for two-year-olds, and while I admit that Beyers must be taken with a grain of salt in juvenile races (and with maidens for that matter), Pure Sensation's last two efforts not only were better than all sixteen efforts of his rivals today, but were double digit better than 15 of the 16 races run.  It doesn't get much better.  He stalked the pace, and then could not get by the second choice.....and was run by late by another - third!  Sooooo, I bet a horse who's clearly superior on figures and not only does he lose to another horse who runs his lifetime best, but a second runner ALSO runs a lifetime best?  Wow. 

Next up was my second-most likely winner at Gulfstream.  Take Time to Pray was entered in a non-winners of two lifetime event.  He was another Team Calabrese runner, and trainer Kirk Ziadie sported 42% winners with class droppers, good enough to make the Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club!  Jockey Luis Saez was a huge 50% winner for the outfit over the last two years and he just looked much the best.  I tripled the bet and he rolled wire-to-wire! 

No sooner was that race official and they were off at Aqueduct in the 4th.  It was 1 mile and seventy yards for maiden special juveniles.  I liked Todd Pletcher-trained, Michael Repole-owned Monopolize.  He'd broken dead last from a wide post last time in his debut then rallied strongly, but still earned a field-best speed figure.  He was bet down to 4/5 and as they spun out of the far turn he was third behind the second choice and a 30-1 longshot with lots of work to do.  I think even at the furlong marker if you'd offered to buy my ticket I would have sold it!  But inside the final 16th Monopolize found another gear and accelerated past the 30-1 longshot to score!  Two in a row!  That one went official and they were off at Tampa.  I debated back and forth about backing the obvious favorite, Floor Money.  He was dropping from open allowance into a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event.  On paper he looked much the best, especially with a weight break due to a ten-pound apprentice rider.  Floor Money sat third to the turn and then glided up to poke a head in front mid-way on the turf with little effort.  As they turned for home the front-runner hugged the rail and the apprentice (or perhaps the horse, but it's the jockey's responsibility) floated wide, losing at least two lengths.  Still, he had the momentum and within a hundred yards he had collared the leader again and still had not been asked.  But the leader would not give in and it became an all out battle to the wire.  It was awfully close, and fifty yards out I would have told you the inside front-runner had the edge, but on the wire I got the final bob.  Just to be certain I watched the slo-mo replay and the outside horse, the #9, Floor Money was in front.  Guys all around me were swearing because they'd bet against the favorite!  THREE IN A ROW, so I went outside to video the sequence of winning selections.  Then I came back in to cash my tickets.  Gulfstream winner - $24; Aqueduct winner - $18.50; Tampa winner - "I'm sorry, that ticket isn't a winner" said the clerk.  She ran it through again, and I said, "That's not right, it was a photo finish, and I saw him win.....then she printed out the official prices.  It said that in the 4th at Tampa, the #9 ran second.  I know you can't argue with the computer, but still, I thought something had to be wrong......I turned to the monitors and they were showing the replay......I watched, I was sure I won.  Then the photo came up......

I am even more sure I won.....look at it, isn't my horse's head - the dark nose of the #9 on the outside in front the winner?  Still, I'm thinking, something must not be right with my bet or my ticket.  Then the official prices come up - the winner #1, second #9.  WOW.  As if I needed any kick-start to a series of oh-so-close-without-winning races......the racing gods must have had a field day over the next three hours torturing me.  Third at 7/1 over the Calder turf when I made a threatening move on the turn making me think I had the winner; a surging second at Gulfstream where as I watched on the rail I thought I'd caught the front runner; a best-of-the-rest second at Tampa over the turf; a fast closing second at Gulfstream where again at the top of the lane I thought, and the way announcer Larry Colmus called it HE thought, Kaigun would win.....second again.  At Calder, I ran second, AGAIN, then after a non-threatening fifth at Gulfstream I was second in the feature at Aqueduct, the Gravesend Handicap.  My pick, Palace, was on a three-race win streak, had a perfect pace set-up, and had just beaten the second choice in the Grade 3 Fall Highweight.  But today when I came running, the second choice didn't stop.....you guessed it, SECOND, AGAIN!  Non-threatening finishes (4th and 5th) at the Fair Grounds and Calder before finally I hit the winner's circle after three long hours of "close, but no cigar" finishes. 

It was the second race at Hollywood Park, a 6 1/2 furlong claiming event.  The logical horses did not inspire me, but on the rail Courtside intrigued me.  Going back through his past performances he had once been a very quick horse, but age seemed to have caught up to him.  In his last several he ran slower and struggled to get to the front.  Today he was coming off a layoff, and here was the first thing that caught my eye - he had two razor-sharp workouts in :59 and change.....that's sizzling time my friend!  Today he drew the rail, so you know his rider would send him to the front, and best of all, there did not seem to be any other horses who wanted the front.  I thought he'd break sharply, clear the field and the riders on the logical winners would allow him to go "knowing" he'd stop once they turned for home.  As they were loading into the gate he was 6/1.  As he raced past the opening quarter pole the odds flashed up at 8/1!  A guy standing next to me was talking out loud, "that's right, save him on the rail, control the pace.......don't push him, don't ask him yet...."  He's seen the same thing I did.  They turned for home and Courtside was comfortably in front by four and had yet to be asked.  At the furlong markers the favorites began to move, but that's when our rider asked for more and Courtside spurted clear.  The guy was cheering out loud as Courtside flashed under the wire.  He looked down at his program and I said, "much the best....." - he looked up with a smile and I said, "MUCH the best!"  He chuckled and said, did you see those works in :59 and change?  Oh yeah I said, I saw them.  Then the prices came up - $18.60 to win.  And best of all, I'd not only labeled him my Hollywood Park UPSET Special, I'd doubled the investment! 

I was going to cash for nearly $100!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Especially on days where I am not cashing a lot of tickets I purposefully do NOT add up how I'm doing for the day.  It's clear I'm not winning money on the day, so why discourage myself and either (a) lose confidence in my picks, or (b) begin to chase money by increasing the bets or changing my picks to longshots.  I've found if I just go with what I had already decided the outcomes will eventually even out - if not today, then on another day.  Still, as I flipped though my picks, I saw several minimum bets, and with a near $100 return here, I thought I might have just "saved the day" from being a big losing day. 

My good fortune didn't last too long as moments later at Gulfstream I was second AGAIN, this time at 3/1.  Then at Tampa I was third at 4/5 when I could not catch the dueling front runners over the turf.  As they loaded into the gate for the Gulfstream feature, the Grade 3 Dania Beach at a mile on the turf for two-year-olds I explained to Kim and Elaine that my top pick was my pick for the same reason I was afraid he would NOT win.  They looked at me puzzled and I explained that Bon Accord had last run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf where he finished a close fourth beaten by two top Europeans (the winner paid over $14 and was my top pick!) and arguably the best US two-year-old turf runner, Bobby's Kitten.  So he outclassed the field.  But, I continued, very often horses exiting the Breeders' Cup do not run well in their next start.  I concluded by saying, I went with him though because of the eight horses lined up today, at least six of them want to be in front and he will come from off the pace, which gives me a tactical advantage!  No sooner had I said that than the gates sprung open and the stretch-out sprinter burst to the front in the first fifty yards.....but then with rush from between horses here came the #6 to grab the lead - who's that?  BON ACCORD!  Kim turned to me before they even hit the first turn and said, "Didn't you just say he would NOT go to he lead?"  Sigh......as they rounded the turn I replied, "...well, if he wins, then the jockey was smart because the turf has been playing well to front runners.  I set the pace through the far turn and when heads turned for home I had a short burst to hold the lead, but then here came the closers and I gradually faded to sixth.  Figures.......I went inside to watch Hollywood's 4th - a Bob Baffert second time two-year-old with go-to rider Martin Garcia on board, automatic bet.  Right to the front and long gone.... to the final fifty yards where he was caught and finished second!  The finale at Gulfstream was one guy's "BEST" of the day, and Twigazuri Strait looked to be the best on paper.  He was a generous 3/1 at post time came running late....to be third.  Sigh......

Kim and I said goodbye to Elaine and were about to head to "The Yardhouse" for dinner when my next pick, the Tenacious Handicap from the Fair Grounds went to post.  The way the race was bet surprised me.....there were two local horses, allowance runners at best, who drew the most attention.  I had centered my attention on multiple-graded stakes winner Prayer For Relief.  Just this summer he'd been a photo finish nose second in a $200K race.  While I'll admit he wasn't nearly the same horse he was a couple of years ago, he was exiting the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, AND his career earnings of $1.5 million was more than the COMBINED earnings of the rest of the field.  I believed that the drop from Grade 1 company to a $75K overnight/listed stakes would be just the spot for him to show his best.  As they moved down the backstretch he sat in third, with a pocket trip behind battling front runners, while clear of the rest of the field.  As they approached the far turn the rider sent him through and opening on the rail and you could just read his mind thinking, "....I'm going to win this race RIGHT NOW!...." as he accelerated away from the field.  By the time they all straightened for home he was clear by two and it was all over by the shouting as he drew off to score by six widening lengths!  Better yet, the crowd had let him go off at 7/2 odds - his payoff of $9.00 along with my double investment netted me nearly $50!  Kim and I headed over to the restaurant and had a nice dinner.  This also allowed the crowd/traffic to thin, and when we left a little after 7 pm we had an easy drive home! 

I still had four races on my selection sheet, so as soon as we got home I opened up twinspires.com and watched the replays.  In the 9th at the Fair Grounds, another listed stakes on their "Super Santa Saturday" card my pick, former Grade 1 winner King David made a mild late rally but was sixth across the line.  At Hollywood I had another upset selection and it looked like Horse-for-the-Course Foxy Boss might score as she threatened moving through the turn at 9/2.  But she flattened out through the lane.  Curls For Girls had run really well to be second off the layoff and had a bullet work for today's maiden special race at the Fair Grounds....top rider Rosie Napravnik sealed the deal.  She was 9/5 and never in it - 8th.  I scored my final win of the day in the finale at Hollywood.  It was the Soviet Problem Stakes for two-year-olds.  Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was going for a Hollywood Park stakes record for a fall meeting, looking to surpass legendary Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham.  Top rider Rafael Bejarano was on board the favorite, my pick, Swiss Lake Yodeler who was a neck away from a perfect 3-for-3 record.  As they came out of the turn she was wide and in fourth and looked to be struggling to gain ground.  At the furlong marker she was slowly wearing down the two survivors of the pace duel, but she was not accelerating enough to win......but as they came to the 16th pole she found another gear for Bejarano - who never went to the whip - and she blew by to score.  My double investment netted nearly $20. 

For the day I had only cashed on six selections, while running second or third on THIRTEEN occasions.  But because of the two big payoffs late in the day my losses for the day were "normal" and I could honestly say that if any two of my close finishers had scored I would have profited for the day despite the low win percentage.  Tomorrow is the last day of racing before Christmas week, but more importantly it's closing day for Hollywood Park - forever.  After 75 years of racing ownership is selling the property because the commercial area it is located in makes it too valuable a piece of property to keep.....never mind the history and tradition that will be bulldozed under.  I was happy to learn Jeff and Antoinette will be in the clubhouse for the final day of racing.