WIN - WIN - WIN To Start The Day!
I was very pleased with the way the races turned out today - scored 50% on the day; hit with three out of four added money investments, including the two co-best selections; and nearly had a $10 horse in another race. I had six selections on the day and the first three were the "big bets" of the day. After the way Saturday had gone I didn't know what to expect.
In the 3rd race my top selection was Scatter Joy. It was a nw2L sprint and the fact that Scatter Joy had never been entered for a tag, much less a conditioned claiming tag AND that he was lightly raced would have made him the top pick. But as I looked through the field he was facing a woeful field of runners. He looked to have the race sewn up if he just showed up with any kind of effort. I thought he had enough speed to clear the field and take them gate to wire if necessary, but he also had a great stalking post if someone wanted to go stupid-fast to the front. He was hammered down to 3/5 at post time and rocketed out of the gate to quickly go clear of the field. The opening quarter was fast, but not too fast to worry.....but when the half was posted in :44 and change I was worried he had gone too fast, too soon. Not to worry, long gone as the rest ran to their paper form. I'd doubled the bet and collected over $15.
In the 4th I had what I thought was an even bigger standout. It was a one-turn mile claiming event and Toh's Grey Cat was my selection. He was being sent out by trainer Peter Walder who is a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club member with seven different angles. 'Cat qualified on three of those: second start off a layoff (44%), class dropper (43%), and running in a dirt route (43%). All of this pointed him out as the pick, but on Thursday my BEST of the day had been a Walder runner who had also qualified on multiple 40% Club angles. That one had wired a one-turn mile field by going way-too-fast, but just kept running. I was thinking today would be much the same.....and it was! He was in command from the get-go and was L-O-N-G GONE! WHOOO HOOOO! Two in a row!
And right back in the 5th I had another big-time investment. This time it was a Todd Pletcher runner. As I wrote in m analysis, Catron was the prototype profile of a Pletcher winner at Gulfstream. He'd debuted months ago with a dominant win, then went to the shelf and now showed up here. His works were good, and the fact that Pletcher is the CEO of the Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club with three working angles here (dirt sprinters-42%, wins early at GP-40%, and steps up in class-47%) just solidified the selection. Unlike the first two picks, he was quickly outrun through the opening quarter. And the way speed had appeared to be holding I was a little worried when he was over six lengths behind them to the far turn. But then Javier Castellano said GO! and he quickly reeled in the leaders and ran away in ultra-impressive fashion! Three in a row and I was guaranteed to profit on the day!
I wish I had an answer for why I handicapped and bet the next two races. Both were two-year-old maiden races on the turf, and both had Todd Pletcher horses. I say all the time that "you are either with Pletcher or not" and "you can't guess when he's live".....and yet that is just what I did. I would say for myself that Pletcher's weakest angle is turf routers and that has seemed to be the case through the first eleven days, but still. I passed on Canzoni (5/2) in the sixth going two turns, and backed Sandowner (2/1) in the 7th, a turf sprint. You can probably guess, but he first one won and Sandowner was second. Even worse, Canzoni was allowed to float up to 7/1 and paid $17. My standard bet on a Pletcher horse is $10, so I passed up on an $85 payout.....sigh.......you'd think I'd learn.
In the eighth my pick was Chad Browns turf runner All Star Kitten. And as you can imagine from the name, she was owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey. She was allowed to go off at 4/1. She sat the perfect trip, just off a slow pace set by a longshot, and she opened up in the stretch. But then here came another 'Kitten runner for different owners and it was a stretch duel. It was oh so close and I honestly didn't know which way the finish would go. The photo came up and I was second by the narrowest of margins. And in the last race on my selection sheet Neck 'n Neck ran an even fourth in the Harlan's Holiday Stakes. The last thing worth noting for the day was that today was the final race card at Hollywood Park in California. After 75 years of history and tradition the property is being sold because it is on prime commercial real estate....sad. Click here to visit the web page with photos from my visit there in November 2011.
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