TEN WINS!
AN AMAZING DAY!
What a way to start the week off, and as is typically the case, what a great story yesterday was. When I handicapped the Thursday card - yes, we've moved to a four-day-a-week calendar as of this week - I found seven of the ten races that I liked a runner and two that qualified for "Prime Time" investments. The weather has been fabulous all week, with today supposed to be the last day of the coolish temps, so I thought today would be a great day to spend at the races. As I wrote on my Facebook status, "Five years ago I would have said, a beautiful Thursday like today, and I'm inside working....when I retire, on days like today I can enjoy being outside at Gulfstream Park!" And, there I was! Once I'd made the decision to head out to Gulfstream for the day I considered if I wanted to get the DRF and handicap other cards. In the end I decided that I didn't want to make it an all-out assault on the track, I wanted a more laid-back day, but at the same time I wanted to have more races than once every 30 minutes or so. I decided to resurrect an old handicapping formula of mine which I called, "Handicapping the Handicappers." I used to do this frequently during the Summer Racing season when I'd spend all day Friday handicapping, go to the races all day Saturday, and then want to play on Sunday. But it's been a while, especially since I've retired that I have done this. So, here's how it works/worked......I went online to see which tracks that I like to play were running today, AND which ones had an online handicapper's analysis of more than just their projected winner. I found four such tracks, but Turfway didn't have a first post until 6:30 pm so I tossed those. I was left with three tracks that I frequently handicap: Aqueduct, Hawthorne, and the Fair Grounds. Then I printed out the analysis for each of their handicappers.....
Here's the odd thing, which makes today such a great story......at Gulfstream I was only 1-for-7! And the ten races where I'd handicapped the handicappers I cashed tickets on nine of the ten races I'd selected! Three of them were NOT the favorite either! OH MY! So let's take a quick look back at the day's action, track-by-track, starting with Gulfstream......
In the Gufstream opener I went with what turned out to be the post-time favorite, Todd Pletcher's debuting 2-year-old Coach Inge. He looked like the best of the two Pletcher runners and had top rider Javier Castellano on board, but he broke slowly and had too much ground to make up, 4th. In the second I had the second choice on the turf, Kingofalldiamonds. Jockey Paco Lopez gave him a great ground-saving trip and as they turned for home he easily galloped to the front while skimming the rail. Announcer Larry Colmus even called out at the furlong marker, "Paco Lopez confidently has him under a hand ride." Then here came the favorite roaring through the lane. No problem, Paco would ask for a little acceleration and that would be that.....no response, ran right by him in the final fifty yards - 2nd. Seriously? In the fourth it was DRF's Mike Welch's "Best" of the day, and I doubled the investment on Laura Golightly. She was another Pletcher runner stretching out to two tuns after a sprint debut. Not only did she look good, but none of the eight others had anything I could say positively about their chances. She was 6/5, but trailed from the beginning and never picked up her feet - 8th (typical for a Welsch "best" I've found). In the fifth Team Calabrese and 40% trainer Kirk Ziadie sent out Distinctive Move. He was dropping in class and got Luis Saez to ride, a 35% winning rider for the outfit. The only caveat was that he'd run second in back-to-back races, in photo finishes, as the odds-on favorite. Today he was outrun by a 30-1 shot and rallied belatedly to be second best, again. I kept thinking that my "BEST" bets were coming up, just hang in there. In the 6th was the first of the two. And honestly I had considered making Sonja's Angle a BIG Best Bet, while keeping the later one as a "prime time" bet. But in the end I kept the bets of equal value. Sonja's Angel dueled through a wicked :22 and change opening quarter going a mile - way too fast of a pace, especially under pressure; then an absurd :45 and change half while under pressure. I thought as they hit the far turn, "there's no way she hangs on unless Peter Walder, her trainer, had some magic up his sleeve, because Sonja's Angel qualified as a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play on FIVE different angles! As they turned for home, Sonja drew away from the pace rival in a 1:09 split, and surprisingly no one was gaining! She walked with it! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
And here's an oddity, my wife's high school number in all three varsity sports and still her favorite number is 43 - four of the five angles that Walder scored at 40% or higher were 43% win percentages! As I wrote in my analysis, that can't be a coincidence! I cashed for over $30 and was close to even locally. It was a cool moment when I went to cash my ticket because in the fifteen minutes prior to Sonja's Angel winning, I had won races at all three of the other tracks and my cash payout was $99.00!
In the 8th Workin For Hops (who'd won for me last winter) was my upset pick, 6th at 4/1. And finally my last "Best" in the 9th. Ready to Act had scored with authority in her turf debut for Chad Brown. Then she was the favorite in Woodbine's Grade 2 Natalma Stakes; she opened up in mid-stretch well on her way to a win when suddenly she made a sharp left hand turn into the rail and tossed the rider! Brown sent her to the Breeders' Cup and in the Juvenile Fillies Turf she dueled from the far outside post all the way into mid-stretch before fading. The drop into this nw1x allowance spot should be a perfect confidence builder for her. She rated off the pace, moved to the front at the top of the lane (but without the kind of acceleration I was expecting) but was then run down by an 8/1 longshot who Gulfstream analyst Christina Bossinakis had given out, not only over the local monitors, but to a national HRTV audience. Well done Christina!
Let's back up and review at Aqueduct......the second race saw St. Sincere hammered down to 3/5 as part of a powerful entry. They ran to their odds and finished 1-2....in the 4th I went with Boundy Pink. I thought I might get a price as she was moving from turf to dirt after a dismal last race effort, but as Beer pointed out, trainer Linda Rice had used this same move (also a dull turf effort) with a winner last week. She galloped home as much the best at 1/2, I cashed again! In the fifth I liked Street Thug the best of all the Aqueduct selections, so I doubled the bet. He had once been considered a talented runner for Todd Pletcher, but had never realized his potential. Today he was dropped into a non-winners-of-two-lifetime claiming event and he was either going to be tons the best or off the board.....he was tons th best at 4/5. The last play at Aqueduct was in the 6th. Possetivevibration was Beer's "BEST" of the day, but I was only going to go in for the minimum. She was being well bet and he was on a roll, so I went back to the windows and doubled my bet.....she drew off as MUCH the best and I was home free with another winner and another $20! That topped off a perfect 4-for-4 afternoon in snowy New York!
A big tip of the hat to Mike Beer......one reason I had doubled the bet on Possetivevibration was I had gone back and checked all his picks after my win in the fifth.....he was second in the opener; won the second (with me), won the third, won the 4th (with me), won the 5th (with me), and then won the 6th (with me). I considered betting his last three but decided to stick with my original decision only to watch his top choices win the 7th, 8th, and 9th.....he was an amazing NINE-for-TEN on the day. Very well done Mr. Beer!
At Hawthorne I scored in the second when Queen of Scioto stalked the pace and then drew off as much the best. Much to my delight she was 7/2 on the board, and I was cashing for over $20! I doubled the bet on odds-on chalk Abuginmymargarita in the 3rd. She went right to the front but was nailed inside the final fifty yards, second. But I came right back to win with Baba Lucy in the 6th. That was interesting because it was one of my two final bets that were scheduled to go off after I left. But the traffic was so bad I was stuck at a light and so I opened my phone up for the replay and watched it on my phone at the light. She scored at a nice $6 and put me into the black for the day!
The final track on my selection sheet was the Fair Grounds from New Orleans. I like to follow Katie Mikolay's picks, especially since she is so good looking and I've met her, spent some time with her. But she is on maternity leave and so Brian Spencer is the local analyst this winter. I liked what I'd read in three of his races, the first of which was the third. I was outside watching Sonja's Angel win the 6th at Gulfstream when the race went off, so as I walked in I looked up at the monitor and I saw a runner at the Fair Grounds blow by the front runner and draw off with authority....what's the number? "6" I recognized from the gold character on the black saddle cloth....my pick, Happisoutback is number 6! And best of all, the final odds flashed up.....she was 7/2! The payoff was $9.60 and I was cashing for nearly $25. Interestingly this was in the same sequence when Queen of Scioto scored at Hawthorne at $9.00! Next in New Orleans was the 6th where Spencer had written, "Hopeful Notion is clearly the one to beat. He returns off the bench for a barn that owns serious sats in all the applicable categories and brings a solid series of works with him." That my friends is a handicapper telling you he LIKES this horse a lot! I doubled the investment. Well, he won - that's the good news - but he struggled to put away the second choice until the final fifty yards. But hey, a win is a win, and I was collecting another $15. The final race for me at the Fair Grounds was the last race on my sheet and I had to watch the replay online once I got home. I had backed Isanford, who was not Spencer's top pick, but I liked that he'd described him as a potential lone speed. Everyone knows speed rarely wins at the Fair Grounds (turf or dirt), so I thought I'd get at least his 3/1 program odds. Nope, the crowd bet him down to even money and he did indeed wire the field with ease!
So I ad TEN wins from just 17 selections, nearly 60%! And a clear profit on the day. It was nice to get a pack of winners as I'm nearly certain I've been below my typical 30% so far in this opening month. Just three picks on a weak Friday card tomorrow, then a full slate on Saturday as Kim and I are hosting one of her good friends to a day at the races!
No comments:
Post a Comment