Day 55

February 23 - An AMAZING End To The Day!

Even as I was handicapping for today I had nagging misgivings that I was over-betting. But I looked back at each pick and thought I was on solid ground. Even when I printed off the Gulfstream online handicapping selections I was even more confident that I was on solid ground. But with each passing race my worst fears were coming to pass. Off the board 6th with my first bet when I doubled the investment on Red Brunette.  The next selection was in the first running of The Ten Palms Stakes, a $100K event going a mile on the turf.  My pick, Byrama showed SIX starts in rade 1 races in her last eight starts, including a WIN.  Today was her first start off a long layoff for new trainer Bill Mott.  She pressed the pace, had no where to run into the stretch, then snuck through on the rail; had a clear lead with the in deep stretch only to be caught on the wire (inside in yellow silks) - 2nd.

Off slowly and dead last in the 5th race; Tripled the bet on a Pletcher horse - Super Sky.  She was coming off a two month break last out and stalked an honest pace.  Second starters at the meet for Pletcher win at a 49% clip.  Not today, late running at a big 3/1, but not good enough - second again! In the seventh it was Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti's "Best" of the day, and my top pick - Easton Arch.  I thought it was a two horse race, easily.  I wrote it would go to who ever had the best trip and last out Easton had broken from a wide post and was wide itno the lane in his US debut. Rallied belatedly at 7/2 to be 3rd, behind the "other horse" I said was obvious at 7/2.  Sigh..... First of two co-best bets was next in th 8th.  Love y Empire was first off the claim for Michael Maker, for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, with Javier Castellano riding.  Duh!  She sat second at even money.....right on the hip of the longshot leader into the lane, asked to run....stopped and faded to 6th. Six losses in a row and a nice chunk of change down the drain.

As we headed into the finale I had my last co-BEST of the day in Get In Line, a Maker-Ramsey runner. He'd been claimed last spring for $50K and then set the pace in back-to-back graded stakes. Here he raced for a $30K tag off the bench before fading. Second off the shelf today he was dropping into a nw3-lifetime claimer. He was perched on the far outside in post 11. Meanwhile the Rainbow 6 has been building and today was worth over $2 million. The only way to win the whole pot is to be the ONLY ticket-holder of the six winners. As they went to the gate for the finale there were four such tickets, one on #3 Mr. Baker. Speed had been carrying all day and Castellano quickly established himself as the pace setter into the first turn, down the backstretch and gained some separation into the lane - see the top left photo. Then Mr. Baker came flying from out of the back.....collared Get In Line and put his head in front (2nd & 3rd photos above).....the guy with the Rainbow Six ticket had to be beside himself, but then Get In Line re-rallied and surged to the front on the wire!

The best part, he'd gone off as a very tepid 7/2 favorite and paid a juicy $9.80. My $20 "prime-time" investment netted me $98. So for the day, I'd won only one-of-seven.....but had bet a total of $80, and won $98! Over six hours of losing cured in one fifty yards of turf when Get In Line surged to the wire! WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Check out the exciting race on this video:

 

Day 54

It was a great day at the races today!  I was dressed for the "event," there was a HUGE crowd that roared as they came down the stretch, I cashed a LOT of tickets, and in the end I had a bottom line profit on the day.  Does it get any better (unless you're talking a truly big dollar profit)?  The day started as I was about 20 minutes into the drive to Gulfstream when I realized I did NOT have my phone.  My first inclination was to turn around, but I'd miss the first race AND I knew parking was going to be an issue even with my early arrival.  My next thought was how to record everything for this journal and my web page; and then the thought crossed my mind that this could be a harbinger of a rough day ahead.  I told myself that forgetting my phone has nothing to do with my handicapping, but sometimes......So I arrived over an hour before post time and the lot was nearly full already.  They were having a special giveaway today, a bobblehead of leading jockey Javier Castellano.  You just had to purchase a Daily Racing Form or a program.  I already had a Form so I got in line for the bobblehead.  I picked up my ticket for my reserved seat and settled in.  I would normally have looked up the scratches online, but I had to revert to the "old fashioned" method of watching the scroll on the TV monitors.  By the time that was done it was only about fifteen minutes to post. 

I had three bets in quick succession, first up a double investment in the opener at Gulfstream.  11-Divine Oath was my pick in this nw1x allowance turf event for three-year-olds.  Trainer Todd Pletcher has many GP 40% Club angles, three of which were I play here.  He is 45% with runners coming back in 31-60 days; 47% with runners making a move up in class; and best of all, 49% with runners making their second start of the meet.  As they broke out of the gate for this 7 1/2 furlong test, two longshots set sail on the lead through an insane :45 half-mile split.  You know the closers were going to come running, and leading the pack of closers was Divine Oath.  Right by the surviving front runner and held off the deep closer!  WHOOO HOOOO. 

He had gone off at 8/5 and with my double investment I cashed for a quick near $30 return.  About ten minutes later I was parked under the simulcast flat screens and they left the gate at Aqueduct.  I had tripled the bet on Irsaal who looked to sit a perfect stalking trip after running second (five clear of the show) last out to a former stakes winner.  Sure enough he was right there as they came out of the turn, but was behind a wall of four horses.  He split the second and third to make a move, but a closer had gotten the jump on him and there was a pace survivor directly in front of him.  Jockey Irad Ortiz dove to the rail with a 16th of a mile to go and pushed the "GO" button.  Irsaal responded and edged clear to win!  Cashed for nearly $30 again!  That was no longer official and they were loading into the gate at Calder.  I thought Distinct Affair looked TONS the best.  All the other trainers were a combined 13-for-172 while 'Affair's trainer alone was 21-for-93!  He was 4/5 as they loaded into the gate, which I thought was stealing.  But as they left the gate he was pounded down to 1/5.  Well, as everyone left the gate BUT Distinct Affair.  Dead last after a poor break.  But by the time they hit the far turn he was in fourth and advancing.  But as they turned for home the leader spurted away by nearly five lengths and 'Affair didn't seem to be making up any ground.  The rider asked, and he found another gear.  He ran right by the leader and was clear by daylight on the wire!  THREE IN A ROW and I'm ahead and I've nearly doubled my money to start the day! 

In the next two races at Gulfstream I was third and sixth.  I though my pick would wire the field in the second, but he was outrun to the lead and that one wired the field.  And in the third I went with a Pletcher longshot, who ran like a 6/1 horse.  I picked a longshot in the Kings Point Stakes at Aqueduct.  Moneyinyour Pocket was 9/1 and tracking the leaders through the turn but had no response when asked to run through the lane - sixth.  I then went on another "winning binge!"  In the third at Calder Smart Humor was being sent out by a barn that was winning 51% first off the claim.  Right to the front at odds of 1/2 an wire-to-wire!  I missed at the Fair Grounds at 6/1.  Then in back-to-back races at Gulfstream I scored.  In the fourth Normandy Invasion was making his return to the races for Pletcher.  He was last seen running fourth in the 2013 Kentucky Derby!  So the drop out of three straight graded stakes, and four straight 90 Beyers laid over the field.....IF he was ready.  He was sitting fourth to the turn and looked to be not interested, but then Javier Castellano shook the reins and he EXPLODED right by the field and drew off under wraps as TONS the best!  His final time for the mile was a new track record!  ULTRA-IMPRESSIVE! 

It was a good half hour until my next investment, the next at Gulfstream.  I sat in my reserved seat in "my section" and had the nicest chat with two older ladies.  So I decided to stay there to watch Global Strike run in the 5th.  It was a MSW for three-year-olds.  Yes, he was a Pletcher runner, and yes, Castellano was up!  He stumbled a bit out of the gate, but was sent right to the front.  He was immediately engaged by another.  And the pace duel was on, and lasted through the entire nine furlongs!  And remember, he'd stumbled at the break!  I was sure he'd give in, but instead in the final fifty yards he edged clear!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

I had doubled the bet and was going to cash again, this time for over $15.  I had invested "prime time" in him, and was counting my lucky starts as they loaded in the gate and he was 1/2.....but the late money knocked him down to 1/5.  Back inside to watch Scotus be way too far back at 4/1 in a one mile claiming event - sixth.  And then I won again, my seventh on the day, at the Fair Grounds with Deciptive Vision.  This guyhad been out last exactly 365 days ago, on February 22, 2013.  But he'd won two of three career starts and if able to run anything close to those races he would win.  He did, and he did with authority.  He paid a generous $6.60, but I only had the minimum on him.  They had no longer crossed the line than I made my way to the rail for Gulfstream's 6th.  As I headed towards the rail a young guy gave me "that look" and I paused - is he a former student?  He said, "Are you Mark?"  I said "I am," and he stuck out his hand and introduced himself as my oldest son Jeff's good friend.  I said, you're the video guy from Miami aren't you?  He said yes.  And as we waited or the sixth to start we discussed Jeff's situation trying to get the head Video Coordinator job at the University of South Florida in Tampa.  We are sooooo hopeful to have him, Antoinette, and our grandson Cameron only a few hours away!  My pick in the 6th was Constitution, who I'd seen run an AMAZING race in his debut a month ago.  Broke behind the field, raced up to press the :44 and change pace and then drew off going seven furlongs.  Today he was trying to stretch out to 8 1/2 furlongs around two turns for Pletcher and Castellano.  Right to the front and under mild pressure all the way to the top of the lane where the pressers made their bid.  Constitution was having NONE of it and drew off to score as MUCH the best! 

I was just amazed that the crowd had let him go off at better than 2/1, so his payoff of $6.60 resulted in a return of almost $50 to me!  WHOOO HOOOO!  I'd run off five wins in seven selections over a span of an hour......what a great day I'm having!  And several of the tellers have remarked how nice I look today!  I missed with Dave Liftin's "best" at Aqueduct when Woke Up Tired was a non-threatening third and then Macho Bull was 6th at 6/1 as the DRF "best" of the day at Calder.  But then I came right back to score two quick ones in a row.  Salsita was my co-best of the day at Santa Anita.  On the negative side she was a SIX time maiden.  That's stretching my limit on how many starts I'll bet a maiden.  But......all six Beyers were ALL better than anything her rivals had ever run; the other trainers were a combined 2-for-47 and Salsita's trainer, Peter Miller was 16-for-79; ad she had the rail as the LONE speed!  WOW.  Couldn't get much easier, and that's the way it played out.  She went right to the front and when one came to her heading for home she opened up and it was all over.  Unfortunately she too was odds-on and I didn't make much money.  BUT, I'd invested prime time and was rewarded for being right by putting my money where my mouth was.  Next up was the feature at Tampa Bay Downs.  It was the Super Stakes at seven furlongs.  liked Our Double Play who had run in back-to-back Grade 1's late last spring and early summer and had been off since then.  But he'd fired THREE bullet works over this deep Tampa track for today.  He stalked the leader, was pushed four wide coming out of the turn, but turned on the jets at the 16th pole and scooted away to win by daylight! 

I had tripled the bet and he paid $4.40, resulting in a pay off of over $30 for me!  My TENTH win of the day!  Todd Pletcher's barn is so stocked that not only did he appear to be loaded here at Gulfstream but he had the odds-on favorite, and my "best" at Calder in their featured Pica Slew Stakes for three-year-old fillies.  Co Cola had been second in the Old Hat to her stablemate Sweet Whiskey, so she looked heads and shoulders above these local runners.  She broke slowly and could only rally late for second. I then missed with back-to-back 13/1 runners.  Gourmet Dinner made a middle move in the Stymie at Aqueduct but flattened out; and then Donna's Fly girl set the pace into the stretch over Tampa's turf before giving way.  Enough of this losing!  And I embarked on another streak......The first was at the Fair Grounds where Glacken Too was trying for the third time to break his maiden.  But his back to back seconds had come, unfortunately, to two of the most impressive MSW three-year-old winners in New Orleans.  Today was his day - right to the front and drew off with authority!  I had doubled the bet on him.  Five minutes later at Santa Anita I thought it was oh-so-obvious that Room For Me was an easy loose-on-the-lead winner.  But she went off as the second choice at 8/5.  She set the pace, running in hand while the 4/5 favorite pressed her.  When that one tried to gear up as they turned for home Room For Me took off and drew off convincingly!  Nearly $30 on that one!  Then At Calder I thought the field was a set up for Her Special Way.  She looked to stalk the pressured pace and draw off.  She was first time out for Bill White - a $50% win angle and he had top rider Edgar Zayas up.  The gate opened and Zayas sent her right to the front!  Wire to wire at a nice 2/1 price.  I cashed for another $30.  Then it was time for the co-feature here, the Grade 2 Davona Dale for three-year-old fillies.  It was the prep for the Gulfstream Park Oaks on Derby Day in five weeks and then on to the Kentucky Oaks. Todd Plecher's Onlyforyou was my "BET of the DAY" here at Gulfstream.  It was only her fourth start, but she'd won as TONS the best to kick off her three-year-old season; came back to run even better in the Grade 2 Forward Gal.  And the only question today was her ability to negotiate two turns.  She broke right on top and set the pace to the far turn.  The pressers made their move as they spun out of the turn and straightened for home, but she was clearly in a class of her own.  In spite of drifting out some in the final 100 yards she won by daylight!  YES!  My fifth win on the day at Gulfstream, I'm having a G-R-E-A-T day! 

With her mutual pay off of $4.20 I cashed for over $60!  I missed with a 10/1 longshot to close out the Aqueduct card.  Then in the Bayou Handicap at the Fair Grounds Eden Praire led into the stretch but was nailed late.....second.  I was a late running fifth down the hill at Santa Anita and 6th at 6/1 in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf here.  IN the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds - their prep for their Oaks stakes later this month, I commented that Untappable was sitting on a big race, NEXT time out and would be my pick in the Fair Grounds Oaks.  But she was ready today and dominated, leaving my pick, a Bob Baffert shipper I the dust.  It was time for the Fountain of Youth.  I was on the rail and did NOT like Pletcher's Commissioner, nor did I like the late-running favorite trained by Shug McGaughey.  I also did not like Wildcat Red who had been second in the one mile Gulfstream Park Derby but dominated the Hutcheson a few weeks ago.  I did like Michael Maker's General A Rod with Javier Castellano on board.  Remember, he's the subject of the bobblehead giveaway?  Well heading into this race he'd won SIX races on the card!  The gates opened and Wildcat Red and General A Rod went at it. On the turn the General poked a head in front, then Wildcat Red seemed to have the advantage as they turned for home as he cut the corner on the inside.  But with a hundred yards to go General A Rod was even, maybe a nose in front.  All this in spite of an insanely fast :46 half mile going two turns!  The surged to the wire, PHOTO FINISH!  Here's the oh-so-close finish: 

I thought they announced the winner awfully quickly, and trust me, it was closer than this photo shows.  Yes, I'm on the outside :(  Finally I watched Daddy Nose Best rally too late in the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap over their turf.  So I headed to the car after making my last five bets.  As I went to the car I did a quick count.....for the day I was 14-for-36, nearly 40% and up about $20.  But with the late bets I needed to win two of them to end up with a profit.  How ironic I thought, if I were to lose them all.....have 40% wins, including my "BET of the Day" and not one but two prime-time bets and still end up behind.  But I also thought, sometimes it's like that.  For me it's the handicapping, being right, and enjoying the adventure, especially on a day like today when I'm dressed up with big crowd at the track.  Still........

So, I get home - and oh, did I mention, two of the five bets were my "best" at other tracks?  I was sure I was a profitable winner for the day as I sat down to watch the replays.  In the Gulfstream finale nearly every card ends with a Maker-Ramsey-Castellano winner on the turf.  Ghost to Ghost was such a runner and was 5/2.  Late run......then nothing, sixth.  Not good.  At the Fair Grounds in the Grade 3 Risen Star, their prep for he Louisiana Derby, my "best" of the day was Vicar's In Trouble who'd won the prep for this impressively and had a double BSF advantage over the field with top rider Rosie Napravnik.  Bold move on the turn, then seemed to hang.....third, double not good!  And the winner was a Pletcher shipper from Gulfstream with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith up....sigh.  My "Best" at Santa Anita was in their featured Sensational Star Stakes down the hill.  Lakerville under Gary Stevens looked much the best and was the 4/5 favorite......second....oh, really not good.  My chances of finishing with a profit seemed lost.  The next to last race on the replay list was the last of the graded stakes at the Fair Grounds, the Grade 3 Mineshaft.  Prayer for Relief was the favorite and I had him three back, but he had been dull two back as my pick and a heavy favorite.  I was against him.  And I didn't see a standout.  So I backed Bradester.  On New Year's Day 2013 he was ultra-impressive at Gulfstream.  I waited all year for him to score for me, but he was second in an allowance at Saratoga when I was there for he Travers; then second in the Grade 3 Indiana Derby.  But last out he was really impressive winning an allowance here at Gulfstream.  The move to this graded stakes might be an indication that trainer Eddie Kenneally thought he'd turned the corner.  I doubled the bet and he was 6/1 in the program.  He left the gate at 3/1 and he was perfectly positioned right off the leader from the start through the far turn.  Then leading FG rider Rosie Napravnik asked him and he responded!  He drew even and pulled away late! 

The payoff was a giant $15.40....and with my double investment I would be cashing for $77, and that my friends guarantees a winning day! I though I'd add to the totals when Profire looked like the lone speed in the Santa Anita finale, but he pressed the pace and was four wide turning for home, which cost him when he was a very close second :(  But, a great day with FIFTEEN wins, well over 40% and a flat bet profit!  Check the video, lots of highlights!

Day 53

33% - Again / Near Mirror Image Of Thursday!

Not only were the numbers the same, but just like yesterday, I started the day off by running second!  Grand Jetsetter looked to have the perfect style to stalk the early pace and finish, and he was dropping in class.  But as he zeroed in on the leader (my second choice) at the top of the lane he could never get by, while finishing well clear of the rest of the field.  The second bet of the day was my "BET of the Day."  It was a nw1x allowance test going 8 1/2 furlongs on the main track.  Majestic River had debuted here and was a decisive winner last winter over a next-out runner-up.  In her next start she ran up against what turned out to be multiple Grade 1 winner Emollient; and I her third start she ran into another future Grade 1 winner in Midnight Lucky.  Off to the shelf, before returning today for top trainer Todd Pletcher.  She had several sharp works and figured on several of Pletcher's Gulfstream 40%Club angles.  She sat just off the 10/1 longshot leader to the far turn, then got into high gear and was a decisive winner! 

The prime-time investment netted me nearly $40!  Whooo Hooo!  In the fifth Lucky Empress had been a close third in her last, but the winner was a filly named Charade who was a dominant winner last Saturday.  So I picked her hoping for a repeat of that last race.  She was flying at 5/2 from the back of the back into the stretch, but then did not finish, checking in at fifth.  I got my second winner in the 7th, an entry level allowance sprint.  Six Queens had debuted last February - yes, a year ago - as a four-year-old and delivered a WOW performance, drawing off by six widening lengths to earn an 80 Beyer.  Today she was making her third start off a break and with paired figures looked to take a step forward.  She was hammered down to even money as they left the gate.  She stalked the leaders into the stretch, split horses and was up in the final strides! 

Unfortunately I'd only bet the minimum, so I only cashed for $10.  The day ended with Rumblefortheroses pressing to the stretch in the 8th for Todd Pletcher, then wilting to be 8th at 7/2 and in my last selection of the day White Rose was 2/1 and was no better than fifth with a belated rally.  So, for the week I've won with four of twelve, and am very excited for the giant stakes day tomorrow on Fountain of Youth Day!

Day 52

33% on the Day!

So at the end of the day I had a good winning percentage while losing just a touch.  But in spite of the racing results, the highlight of the day was the fact that I FINALLY was able to get all the Florida Derby tickets for our group.  I already had my original ten tickets, so today I picked up an additional 18!  It will be a very exciting day on Saturday March 29!  The  racing day started when I had On Parole at 7/2 in the opener.  He was turning back from a turf route to a 7 furlongs dirt sprint.  He sat a good trip and appeared to blow the race open when he cleared off the three lengths in the stretch, but was just caught nearing the wire.  So close!  In the second I liked Todd Pletcher's Simon Bar Sinister who was debuting.  He was bet down to 2/1 and I thought that was an inflated price.  But when the gate opened he didn't seem interested in running....trailed throughout and was a dead-last finisher.  I didn't have another play until the 7th when I had settled on Cambiata, listed at 6/1 in the program for this claiming event going a mile on the turf.  She was a good third in the Juvenile Filly Turf on Sunshine Millions Preview Day in late November, so you know she had the class.  She dueled up front into the stretch, look the lead and then was outfinished to end up third.  Finally got into the winner's circle in the 8th.  It was a nw3x optional allowance event carrying a claiming tag of $100K.  The handicapping just seemed way too obvious - of the five slated to run, four of them wanted the front.  Only Happy My Way had shown a consistent running style of stalk and finish.  In his last two starts he'd earned figures of 101 and 100, which were BOTH better than any lifetime figure owned by any of the other four.  So I tripled the investment.  The gates popped open and instead of a four-way duel on the front end, it was HAPPY MY WAY who was loose on the lead!  Oh no!  I thought.  But jockey Joe Bravo knew what he was doing as he went wire-to-wire as MUCH the best! 

She only paid $3.20, but I cashed for nearly $25.  In the 9th I liked One Fast Frog who was sprinting over the turf for trainer Michael Maker and jockey Javier Castellano.  She was well bet to be 2/1, but from the get-go, much like Simon Bar Sinister earlier, she trailed throughout and was a disappointing second.  In the finale It was another claiming event on the turf going 8 1/2 furlongs.  I landed on Vanquisher who not only was getting a big jockey improvement to leading rider Javier Castellano, but he was an ELEVEN-time turf winner at the distance (including four here at Gulfstream).  Took up a good stalking position and as they swung out of the turn he took over and was driving to the wire to score! 

He paid a very nice $8.40, which enabled me to close the day by collecting over $20.

Day 51

February 17 - President's Day

Close The Week With 33% Day

The long six-day-week of racing came to an end with a nice 3-for-6 day, but like many of the days this week, the "BEST" of the day failed to fire and I struggled to get close to even at the end of the day. The first play of the day was a minimum bet and I was glad that I had my own opinion of Unleash the Talent - who I thought had a small edge to score, enough to play, but not enough to even double the bet. He was sent out at 1/5 by the crowd and could not get the job done - 2nd. But then the "score of the day" came in the 4th when What A Party scored on the turf (left) at a nice 5/2, leading to a nearly $40 payoff.

But the "BEST" of the day had a troubled trip and did not fire when asked later in the card. Sigh......In the finale it was a stakes-quality field and I went with what I thought would be a nice price play in Integrity. I thought he was a good investment because he appeared to be the LONE SPEED. But instead, he rated three-wide into the turn through a slow pace considering the quality of the field. But as heads turned for home he was in front and despite strong late runs from not one but two rivals he gutted out the win! HORRAY! Unfortunately the crowd also went against the more "obvious" runners and sided with Integrity as the 9/5 favorite, so I only cashed for about $15.

I made a good decision when I WANTED to bet Strong Mandate in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. But having seen how Will Take Charge was not fully cranked for the Donn last Sunday, I thought D. Wayne Lucas had his eye on the Kentucky Derby and would not have his sophomore colt fully cranked.....good call Mr. Mark as he ran 2nd at even money!
For the week I was a credible 15-for-54, 28% - but not the kind of week I wanted. A short week, but a HUGE Saturday with the Fountain of Youth and multiple stakes on the card. Maybe double-day visits to Gulfstream with Kim having baby shower plans on Sunday!

Day 50

Bookend The Day With Wins

Another day of "that's not what I was expecting" from my handicapping.  I know at the end of the month when I do the three month totals I will be pleased overall, but here's the thing.....I was HAPPY with the way January went and was hoping that the entire rest of the meet / winter would go that way.  Too much to imagine?  Probably so.  The day started, like Thursday - like Saturday - as though it could be a really good day.  In the opener at Gulfstream I doubled the bet on Discussion Closed.  This older sprinter "appears to tower" over his rivals I wrote.  He was last seen in a $10K spot at Churchill Downs and was second by a nose....AND was claimed by Michael Maker for Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  Javier Castellano was riding AND he was dropping into a $6.25K spot.  The Gulfstream 40% Club angles:  40% with any runner below $40K for Maker, and 50% with any class dropper.  The race went just as expected and I was a winner just like that! 

I came back in the second and it seemed really obvious that it was one of two runners who would win. He's So Proud looked to be the favorite an had rattled multiple wins in a row - but they were either two-turns at Calder or one-turn miles here.  I liked Horned Frog, who figured to be second choice.  Another Maker-Castellano partnership AND he had won four of his last five races at this distance.  He tracked He's So Proud, moved strongly through the lane and just couldn't quite get there.......second.  I decided to pass both the third and fourth, and made the choice to pass the fifth because Blockade Runner would be a likely favorite for Maker & Castellano again.  He'd never gone beyond six furlongs and today he was going a mile.  The crowd let him go at his 4/1 program odds and he won easily - $10 and change and I should have had it.  In the 6th it was a MSW for sophomores and I backed the Todd Pletcher $625K daughter of Malibu Moon, Hanalei Hailey.  I figured she would not be the favorite but I did not like the favorite who'd already run second three times.  As I watched on HRTV reporter Caton Bradar told the audience that the first two fillies she ran second to came back to dead-heat in the Grade 1 Schyulerville on Opening Day at Saratoga and that trainer Dale Romans thought she'd run really big today.  Made me nervous.  Rightfully so.  Hanalei went off as the 5/2 second choice and tracked the favorite, but was no match late while second by daylight.....but that's the thing - second.  Pecky's Boy was a disappointment in the 9th running 5th as the 8/5 choice.  In the featured Grade 3 Sabin there were two Pletcher runners.  I did not think that likely short-priced contender Sweet N Discreet would win, so I went with the "other Pletcher" runner, Private Ensign.  Well, I was half right - Sweet N Discreet was second; but my third choice set a track record while winning - with Castellano up - wow - and Private Ensign struggled in last all the way around the track.  In the finale, on the turf, I again went with Pletcher, only to see another Maker-Ramsey-Castellano "Kitten" win and pay $14.  Talk about zigging when you should have been sagging! 

I was fortunate close the day's racing with a win with my "Best" of the day.  I had bet on Don't Tell Sophia at Oaklawn in the Pippin Stakes and she won with breath-taking ease.  Today she was looking for a repeat in the Bayakoa Stakes.  She was the favorite, of course, but when they left the gate she was not only last, but a "way-back" last as they hit the back stretch.  I knew the pace was quick, but she was loping along like nobody's brother without a care in the world apparently.  About mid-way up the backstretch it was like she said, "well, ok, let's get this thing done" and she began picking off runners without even really running hard.  By the time they hit the far turn she was fourth; by the time they were mid-way on the turn she was three-wide and moving out of third into second; as heads turned for home she effortlessly ran right by the leader and was in front by daylight....again, without being asked to run.  She drew off under a hand ride and was eased through the final 16th.  Ultra-impressive.  Didn't pay a lot, but I'd made her my best bet and she ran like it!  Special holiday card tomorrow and then a much-needed two-day break after six consecutive days of racing and handicapping before we head towards Fountain of Youth Day on Saturday!

Day 49

February 15 - Late RALLY Brings Me To 33%!

 

It was a fast start, a S - L - O- W middle, and a close with a rush as far as my selections went today.  The day started out like it was going to be a GOOD day as I cashed on three of my first six races.  In the opener at Gulfstream I'd doubled down on Move over who was 2/1.  When he raced near the back of the pack I knew I was in trouble.  He never threatened and was 6th.  Aqueduct cancelled so the next on the list was out, and then my triple investment at Calder scratched so I had nothing until the third at Tampa.  I doubled the bet on Giancarlo, and while that may not seem like much, he had just gone down in flames at Calder in his last start at odds of 1-9 - YIKES!  But he'd been ten plus clear of the show and if he ran his race he was MUCH the best of these.  He pressed the long shot pace setter to the turn, accelerated to the front and drew off as a 6/5 runner should.  I was delighted to win at Tampa as it's not been the best of winters at the Oldsmar facility for me.  In the third at Gulfstream De Price had dominated in his last race.  A repeat of anything close to that would win here.....5/2, fourth - not a close reproduction of his last. I then had an entire 30 plus minute break as I waited for the third at Gulfstream, only to be disappointed when Harbor Mistress was an even fourth at a juicy 6/1.  She had moved to 2nd on the turn, but no late punch. 

 

Finally returned to the winner's circle, and this time with back-to-back "Lucky" winners.  In the 4th at Calder I did TWO things I rarely do.  First, in handicapping the race I was drawn to Luck Be The Lady.  I'd seen and bet her last out in a $10K nw2L where she'd looked like a Grade 1 winner facing allowance horses at 6/5.  I had only had the minimum on her and had wished I'd gone in deeper.  Well, today she was stepping up to $12.5K nw3L.  It is rare indeed that I bet a last-out 2-lifetime winner right back, especially moving up in claiming price.  But she had literally just cantered by the field like they were tied to the rail.  So I doubled the bet.  She was being pounded at the windows so I re-examined the pp's and I thought that even if she regressed she looked TONS the best here.  So I doubled my own double bet to make her prime-time!  I was fortunate that she floated up to 1/5.  And she ran a near-identical race as the last.  Sat off the front runner to the turn, inhaled that one without ever being asked and blew by to win by opening lengths even while geared down.  Ultra impressive effort again!  Less than five minutes later I was on the rail to watch Todd Pletcher's Lucky For You race in a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds.  I was delighted when he was hovering between 5/2 and 2/1 while the crowd was betting another runner down to 8/5 favoritism.  That one was near the back while Lucky For You pressed the pace and blew by on the turn to run away from the field.  I was disappointed when the odds flashed up under the slo-mo replay that he'd been well bet late to be the 8/5 favorite, but I'll take the nearly $30 I cashed out for! 

 

Then it was "the stretch" - from 2:40 pm when Lucky For You crossed the wire until 5:28 - when I was getting ready to head home.  In that stretch I went ONE-for-thirteen.  Not only is that a long time with only one winner, but with no racing at Aqueduct and a couple of scratches I was just "hanging out" for 20-to-30 minutes between most of those races.  And through that period I had one and one only second place runner, and two non-threatening thirds.  So it wasn't like when I finally had a race that I had any excitement to tide me over to the next selection.  Most disappointing were...... Unikat at 7/2 at Gulfstream set the pace to the top of the stretch and then stopped - I had tripled the bet; El Lagado was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite at Calder and looked to be the lone speed.  He was outrun to the first turn and the rider decided to settle off the pace.....wrong move, the front-runner went wire to wire because there WAS NO SPEED!  Duh.....prime time loss. 

 

Todd Pletcher's Athens was off slow and didn't hit the board at 6/5.  In the first of the two graded features at Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Very One my second choice won at odds of better than 10/1 while my pick struggled to be an even-finishing fifth at 9/5.  And my "BEST" of the day in the other graded feature, the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida was Bill Mott's Slumber.  He was a fair 2/1 but could not keep pace through the lane with the favorite, my second choice - third.  The lone win came at the Fair Grounds when jockey Robbie Albarado sent Fancy Ticket right to the front in a maiden claimer for sophomores going a mile on the turf.  You have a hard time winning on the front end on the main track, but on the turf, that is darn near impossible.  AND she was under pressure from the beginning.  But the longer they raced through the stretch, the more determined she was!  I had doubled the bet on the 7/5 favorite and collected nearly $25. 

 

With two races left to watch before heading home I made my last series of eight picks and collected my tickets.  At the Fair Grounds it was their featured Sarah lane's Oates Stakes for three-year-old fillies on the turf.  The field was a combined 2-for-12 on the inner course while my pick, Artist Cry was a perfect 2-for-2.  She was a closer, but that style plays well at the New Orleans track. Yet, as they turned for home - not heading into the stretch, but turning for home - she was DEAD last.  As the camera zoomed in on the top five at the 16th pole, still no Artist Cry.....but in the final 100 yards, here she came flying along the OUTSIDE rail to run by them all to score!  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  I saw the payoff of $5.60, meaning I'd cash for nearly $30 before I went outside to watch the finale over the Gulfstream turf.  Even though it was reserved seating today, the vast majority of the crowd was gone, so I could take my "normal seat" in the grandstands.  My pick was Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Charade.  Trained my Michael Maker and ridden by top jockey Javier Castellano he just looked MUCH the best to me.  I tripled the bet.  He pressed the pace to the far turn, ran right by the pace setter and was clear into the stretch.  The closers were coming but they were never a real threat. 

 

He went off at 6/5, so I was going to have another winning ticket - this time or over $30! Just before I left I saw Cowtownmary lead all the way to mid-stretch over the Santa Anita turf before being caught late.....2nd at 9/5.  When  got home I was able to open up Twinspires - after enjoying pizza! - and watch four late races.  Both Santa Anita picks failed to score as Brad Free's "Best" - Souperlooper was a bad 7th at 9/2 and Famous Alice did not go to the front down the hill, but tried to rally, only to be a close second at 2/1.  But it was better luck at the Fair Grounds.  First Southern Dude gunned right to the front from the rail in an optional claimer.  He was much the best as he dropped out of back-to-back stakes races. 

 

Wire to wire without any real concerns.  He was my "best" at the Fair Grounds on the day.  And then right back with Rugged who I thought would be flying down the middle of the turf course in a turf sprint.  Exactly as I saw it....he was the "best price" of the day, paying $6.40, but I only had the minimum on him.  Still, I had one last race.  I had read in the "Handicapper's Edge"- an online racing newsletter - that in Sam Houston Race Track's co-featured Two Altazono Stakes for three-year-old fillies, Fiftyshadesofgold was making her long awaited return to the races after running sensationally at Saratoga.  Her connections think she is a Kentucky Oaks kind of filly.  She had been working super for this state-bred seven furlong event.  Rosie Napravnik had flown to Houston after riding all afternoon in New Orleans to take the mount.  If she ran to her natural ability she would be long gone in here.  But there was the layoff to consider.  Still, I made her my "BEST" and went prime time on her.  She was fourth early, got her legs under her down the back side; gathered momentum as she moved into second on the turn.  Then opened up and drew off without being asked for her best in a daylight score! 

 

She was a short $2.80 winner, and it was typical of the day's results.  I had ended up with nine winners from only twenty-seven selections - an excellent win percentage, but with only one $6 winner and only two $5 winner it would be hard under any circumstances to make a profit.  It's a special holiday weekend so the racing goes on both tomorrow and Monday.  Then next Saturday is a H-U-G-E day as it's Fountain of Youth day locally and the comparable set of stakes at the Fair Grounds on their Risen Star Stakes Day.

 



Day 48

Happy Valentines Day!

WIN With One of Two BEST BETS

Overall disappointing with the racing today, despite only having three selections on the card.  Let's start with the Valentines Day info.....over the past several years Kim and I give each other an "experience" - we go to a Broadway Show or on a Get-Away weekend.  But this year we couldn't find either one of those that was to our liking.  So we decided to give each other a wall mural to hang above the new 65" big screen television.  We wanted a panoramic photo of from one of our trips and narrowed to either Australia or Alaska.  Finally we chose a breath-taking view of the mountains in Denali National Park where we had flown in a bi-plane and landed on a snow-covered glacier.  Here is a sequence of photos from our visit to the glacier......

And here is the mural we bought.....

On to the racing.....My first pick was in the 4th where I thought Goodtimehadbyall would rally into a speed duel to score late.  It all went according to play as my second choice, Bernie the Maestro surged to the front at the top of the lane with Goodtime flying late.....oh so close on the wire, but second :( 

The first of two "BEST BETS" came in the very next race, the fifth where we were going a mile on the turf in Starter Optional Claiming company.  My pick, Longhunter had scored for me wire-to-wire when stretched to this distance a few weeks ago and he looked like the lone speed again today for Javier Castellano.  The team of trainer Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey has collected multiple wins at the meet and this was another decisive win......LONG GONE, just as expected! 

I was 4th in the 7th when Defiant set the pace, in much the same manner as Longhunter, to the top of the lane but he had no response when the closers came.  Then in the last bet of the day, the other "BEST," Calistoga was a HUGE disappointment.  She was everyone's best of the day and the key to nearly every multi-race wage.  She had won in her debut here and come right back to draw off against winners.  Then after a poor break she nearly won the Grade 3 Eight Belles on Derby Day.  Trainer Bill Mott had her geared up for today.  But jockey Joel Rosario sent her right to the front dueling through an insane :44.1 pace going seven furlongs with an obvious non-win candidate a nearly 12/1.  She survived the duel to forge to the lead as heads turned for home but she had nothing left - especially coming off a layoff - for the stretch and didn't even hit the board.  Seems like several times this meet Rosario has given my picks questionable rides that I my opinion cost me the win.  I'll be headed out to the races tomorrow for a full day of selections, both on track and around the country.

Day 47

A "That's More Like It" Day!

After a disappointing Wednesday today I "returned to form,"  as I scored with my "Best" of the day and on two of four selections. As my Mom and I left the races yesterday it started to rain, and by the time we had come home from a good dinner at Tropical Acres the skies opened up as though it were a summer Tropical Storm! The winds were howling, palm fronds were flying, and the rain came pelting down. The result was that for today's races we were off the turf. That cost me three of my selections. So I was down to four picks on the day. The first selection on the sheet was my "BEST" of the day with Quiz Whiz in a Starter Optional Claiming event sprinting six furlongs. There were several "need to lead" types in the field and Quiz Whiz was a strong finisher. In his last four starts he'd earned race-best figures of 85-83-88-85 and had "stumbled badly" at the start. He looked much the best to me and I tripled the bet. Sure enough, two front runners went streaking to the lead with two others pressing from just off the lead. Quiz sat fifth to the top of the turn then glided up three wide to inhale the field. He opened up into the lane and held on comfortably to score!

Cashed for $30, and I'm off to a good start to the day. I was a close second in my next race when my second choice wired the field under Javier Castellano and my top pick couldn't get by. Then in my third pick, a non-winners of two lifetime sprint Making Havoc was the easiest kind of front-running winner. I rarely bet a nw2L runner who's lost at this level. But Making Havoc was going first off the claim for trainer Jane Cibelli. She's a Gulfstream 40% Club member with one angle - first off the Gulfstream claim! With one of the best riders of the jockey colony riding - Joel Rosario - I thought I had an excellent shot to win.

NEVER in doubt! Whooo Hooo!  In the final selection on the day I stuck with Roman's Avenue in the 9th even though the race came off the turf.  He'd scored wire-to-wire for me last time in a big upset at better than 9-1, but showed some good main track form when stalking the lead.  Today he was sent off at 7/2 and really was never a threat, fifth.  So for the day I finished with 2 wins and a second from four selections and a double-digit profit.  That truly is more like it!

Day 46

Wednesday February 12

So I thought I was going to have a big day......before my Mom and I went out and the first bet confirmed it.  The third race was my first bet of the week and I'd tabbed Dale Roman's debut runner, Talons of Tuscany as my top pick.  He'd been flashing really quick works for today and I thought he'd be a fair price.  But once the betting opened he was hammered to 3/5.  For fifteen minutes he went no higher than 1/1, and so I made a command decision.  When a first-time starter is taking that kind of money AND comes from a barn that is not known for scoring with debut runners, "somebody knows something!"  So I decided to double the investment.  The second choice took the lead and Talons of Tuscany was right on his hip.  They raced this way into the lane, separating themselves from the rest of the field.  But as they continued to race towards the wire I was NOT going past the long-time leader.  But finally in the final hundred yards he drew clear!  HORRAY!  One bet for the week, and one WIN. 

Great decision to up the ante Mr. Mark!  In the 4th I thought Take My Time would be a fair price for trainer Jane Cibelli.  She's a Gulfstream 40% Club member with runners first off the Gulfstream claim, like Take My Time was.  The crowd made him the 9/5 favorite.  I had written that the value play of the race was Chad Brown's Monomoy who was debuting today.  But I also noted that most of Brown's winners at Gulfstream were on the turf.  You don't have to guess......even though it was a photo, it was Monomoy who wired the field at 3/1 while I could not get by and was second.  In the 5th I thought Steel Guitar had a real chance at 12/1 in the program.  But he trailed the field to the far turn and then only made up mild ground to finish a well-beaten sixth. 

Now it was time for the "BEST" of the day.  Kiss the Stars was 5/1 in the program and was breaking from post two in this one mile turf claimer.  He was 5-for-8 going the distance and was the LONE SPEED of the race.  I thought I'd get a fair price because jockey Kendrick Carmouche was winning only 9% at Gulfstream but was a 29% winner for this barn.  They broke out of the gate and he was loose on the lead.  As you can see in the sequence of photos below he had an easy trip with comfortable fractions and as they turned for home with Kiss the Stars two in front I thought I was home free.  As you can see, no such luck.  WOW. 

In the 7th, the last race we were going to watch live I had pointed out to Mom early in the day that I liked #7, Zindaya from the Christophe Clement barn, but that my fear was that the #2, Henry's Song would win because he was an uncoupled entry from Clement and would certainly be the bigger price.  But Zindaya stood out to me.  He'd been twice but had a zillion excuses last time out.  He was a deserving 4/5 favorite.  He stalked the leader into the stretch, surged to the front inside the final 16th.....only to be run down by, yes, wait for it, yes, his stable-mate who paid over $9.  DOUBLE WOW.  We headed for home and I watched the replay of my last bet....set the pace to deep stretch at 7/2 before being caught by two closers.  Sigh......after the big start, no more wins. 

We had a great dinner at Tropical Acres and then the torrential rains, very much like a summer Tropical Storm came down all evening.  We'll be off the turf tomorrow, but I still have a few horses I like.  Time to cash some tickets and get that average back up to the 30% plus range for the month!

Day 45

One of the B-E-S-T Racing Adventures Of The Season

It was not a day filled with wins like the 18-win day last month; it was not a day that saw me score a profit of over $100 like the one mid-day afternoon on January 15.  But it WAS a GREAT day of weather, racing, and stories I'll recall for a long time. The Gr 1 Donn is one of the signature races of the meet and it was originally scheduled to be run yesterday, but this year the Fox Sports Network is televising a series of big races and they wanted the Donn to be the first in the series.  But for some reason it fit their schedule best to go on Sunday so Gulfstream moved the race and it's accompanying Grade 1, the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.  I headed out to Gulfstream early with Mom and Kim and we were going to meet our good friends Stephanie and Jim Anderson.  I told them that we were coming early because I anticipated a huge crowd and parking to be a problem.  That had been the case on Sunshine Millions Day when I came out with Ed, and that day is not nearly as big a deal as today.  But when we arrived there were parking spaces abound!  I even got a front row spot just three in from the corner.....what the ?????  I commented to the lady that collects tickets in "our section" and her reply was that the word around the facility was that a lot of people were very unhappy that the race had been moved to Sunday.  I thought, as the day went on that it was a very big crowd, but it was not any bigger than any Saturday when there had been graded stakes, so for that I was a little disappointed.  But, the weather was excellent, especially for my Mom who cannot be out in the Sun.  It was in the upper 70's or low 80's from start to finish with a nice breeze and quite a lot of cloud cover.  You could always see blue in the sky but rarely was the sun beating down on the crowd.....we would have been in the shade, but as you can see in the highlight video of the races below, it generally was not a sun-splashed scene.  In fact, if anything as the day went on it was a bit "chilly" by Florida standards.  Kim went so far as to say that she would not have sat outside if she had not had her sweater on! 

I had debated about handicapping more cards for the day or just enjoying a more leisurely day with the family.  In the end I decided I would get the Racing Form and try to be very selective.  So when Kim and I went for coffee Saturday morning we stopped where I get the Racing Form and the delivery had not been made yet.  OK, that's the racing gods way of telling me to just focus on Gulfstream I figured!  The racing began with two races going a one-turn mile and I did not win either.  In the opener I liked Helluva Hunch.  He stalked the leader to the turn and surged to the front.....only to be run down in the final 16th, second at 2/1.  In the second I liked Todd Pletcher's Dewey Square.  First, he was making his first start for Pletcher - and that nearly always results in a big effort; second he was running for a claiming tag, which is a big percentage win for the barn; and he was dropping in class.  All this led to him being the 8/5 favorite.  He stalked the pace in third, dropped back, but re-rallied....not enough, third.  But it was in the third I notched my first win.  It was a claiming event and we were on the turf.  My pick was another Pletcher runner, Hothersal.  I thought I had a fair price play as he had not won since scoring on the main track back in 2012!  But his first win was actually HERE over this turf course.  He had run some big races in graded company without winning then was gone for 18 months.  He came back last summer/fall to run three big races, earning Beyers of 90-91-89 without winning, but all in allowance company.  In his most recent he set he pace for more than a mile of a marathon turf event.  Today he dropped into the claiming ranks for a first time tag, and that is a big 47% win angle; but even bigger, when Pletcher runs horses for a tag of less than $40K it is a 54% win angle!  But when the betting opened he was on the board at a miniscule 1-9!  Someone had dropped a TON of early money on him.  His price floated up as they approached post time, but instead of being a nice 5/2 or 2/1 he was 4/5.  He pressed the pace from third, moved strongly on the turn and held the field at bay to the wire!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

The best part was that this was my biggest bet of the day so far and so in spite of being an odds-on favorite I was now in the black for the day!  Next up was, for me, the most anticipated race of the day.  It was the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie going 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt.  And the star attraction was two-time Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll!  She has been on my "Wall of Fame" for two years now and I thought after big score in this past fall's Breeders' Cup she would not race again.  But her new owners decided to take one more shot at the Met Mile.  A poor trip compromised her chances and I really think they wanted her to go out with a win.  That and she was still training like she meant business.  So I'd read a couple months ago that she would conclude her career either at Gulfstream or at another track, but she had one more race to go.  When they picked this spot I was delighted and had circled this date on my calendar - before they even moved the Donn to today.  As late as Friday the racing office was having trouble getting opposition to run against here with only two rivals signed on to take on the champion!  So they doubled the purse from $100K to $200K and go a field of seven.  I had told myself that even though on paper she looked like much the best, there was a realistic chance that maybe her best days were behind her, especially with the she's retired - no she's not - yes, now she is - wait, one more race back and forth thinking.  But I was going to bet her like she deserved to be bet.....as a Breeders' Cup Champion running in a Grade 3.  She was hammered down to 1-9, but floated up to a fair 2/5 at post time.  Then the gates opened and she was left flat footed in the gate some ten plus lengths behind the field.  Visions of the movie "Seabiscuit" when he dropped back like he was no longer interested in racing went through my head and I thought what a sad way to end her career.  But as the closely bunched field sped up the backstretch she was gaining ground on them heading into the turn.  You could see she'd found another gear and was beginning to pass horses mid-way on the turn, but she was wide and having to make up a lot of ground.....could she sustain the bid?  She was FIVE wide as they turned for home, and then in a blink of an eye she'd sprinted to the front.....that was amazing enough, but it was like Groupie Doll, was saying to the cheering fans, "...you think that was something, watch this!....." and she hit overdrive and opened up with a turn of foot that was sensational - dazzling and drew off by open lengths just missing the track record!  It was truly one of the more memorable race moments I've ever seen live.  And when she jogged back to the stands it was to an ovation from a full house of racing fans. 

VERY cool - as was my winning $50 "BET of the DAY" ticket that netted me a return of $70!  In the fifth I thought that Darley Stable's Gratitude had a real chance to take down the likely favored Pletcher runner.  Well, I was right that the Pletcher horse would not win, but it wasn't Gratitude - who was the 3/2 favorite - who won....he ran evenly to be 4th.  Pletcher ran second to a longshot.  I passed the 6th, a turf sprint that seemed impossible to decipher; the winner paid over $40!  In the 7th I liked first-time for Marty Wolfson Vita Vittoria - horses making their first start for him win at a big 30% clip.  But she stumbled so badly she went to her knees, but recovered and sprinted up to challenge for the lead through the turn.  No way she'd be around at the finish.....and she did, in fact she deserves credit for hanging around as long as she did to mid-stretch before finishing sixth.  In the eighth it was my "Upset of the Day."  Mr. Besilu had been my pick as a first-time starter last June at Downs After Dark.  As a $4.2 million purchase running for Bill Mott and the powerful Besilu Stables he HAD to have some ability....but he was fifth that night.  His next was on the turf and he ran a credible third.  Two more misses since and now today he was coming back in a short seven days.  As I wrote in my analysis the only time I've seen conservative Mott do this was with Emollient last year when she came out of the Gulfstream Oaks to run on the synthetic Keeneland surface seven days later in the Grade 1 Ashland and she scored at a big price.  Today Mr. Besilu was back in seven days and changing surfaces.....uh oh.  But he ran evenly at 5/1 and was fortunate to finish fifth.  In the 9th I backed another Mott runner, this time because John Velazquez was on board.....they have scored at a 57% rate over the last two winters.  AND last weekend they teamed up on my "Best" at $12.40 and the next day at a $38 payoff.  Sward was 14/1 as they left the gate.  He made a bold move on the turn to reach third and I thought, uh oh, here we go, my "Day-maker!!"  But he faded to be 6th. 

The third and final "great story" of the day came in the 10th.  I had told Stephanie and Jim early before the racing started that I figured I needed and should win four races to make money today.  And I really thought I had a big chance at a big day....but I also knew I had a lot of picks that were NOT the logical win contenders.  So here we are in the 10th and I only had two winners so far.  My pick was Sapphire Blue on the turf - it was just a minimum wager for me, check out the analysis.......

As I looked over my analysis I thought, "why am I not at least doubling the bet with all these positive angles?"  I walked in to see the Double and Pick-3 payoffs and on the screen was a "DRF Formulator Fact:  Trainer Michael Maker and jockey Javier Castellano are winning at a 40% rate together this winter at Gulfstream!"  That's it, I'm TRIPLING the bet I thought!  His past performances showed three good turf efforts, two of those showed him coming from mid-pack or farther back and once he stalked the leaders from two to three lengths off the leader.  So I figured his off-the-pace style would off-set the outside post.  My only concern as they approached the gate was that speed has seemed to be really hard to run down on the turf course; and while you could make a case that the closers were either not the best horse or were pace-compromised earlier today on the turf Castellano had wired a field going a :22 and change and then :46 and change on the lead and had held on, in spite of it being a maiden event going nine furlongs.....there was no way that horse should have held on....that was a course-biased wire-to-wire win.  So when they loaded into the gate I was hopeful he'd have Sapphire Blue close to the leaders.  But as the latch sprung Castellano gunned Sapphire Blue right to the front.  He handily cleared the field and was off to the races.  The pace was a reasonable :47 and change and as they turned for home he was in front by daylight.  While there were a couple of pressers being asked for run, it was clear to me that There was more than enough gas in the tank to hold on.  HORRAY!!!!!  

And even better, not only had his post-time odds floated above 9/5 to 2/1, but it was well over the flat 2.0-1 as he paid $6.60.  And since I'd tripled the bet I was cashing for nearly $50!  I did a quick mental calculation and determined that I'd nearly break even regardless of how the next two races played out.  I was MORE than happy with that if I was unable to score in either of the features.  In the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap I did not like any of the four obvious favorites; they all had issues that I thought would compromise their chances of winning.  I wasn't avoiding them because I thought the price was too short compare to their chances to win, I did not think they'd win, period.  I went with the only Grade 1 winner in the field (old racing adage, "Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses), and that was Boisterous.  Granted, his lone Grade 1 score was a weak Grade 1 event.  And all his wins were on less-than-firm turf.  But today he was making his first start since being transferred to Todd Pletcher's barn and he'd worked a quick bullet workout recently.  I was willing to gamble that Pletcher had put more speed in him and would improve him enough to run well on the firm course......especially since I thought the others had problems that would prevent them from winning.  He stalked the pace and was in the right place midway on the turn, but had no stretch kick.  To my credit NONE of the favorites were able to get to the wire first either!  Instead the winner was a horse who three back had broken his maiden and in his last he won a nw1x allowance race - hardly Grade 1 credentials!  And I read later it was the first-EVER Grade 1 win for the barn or the jockey.....no wonder he paid $80.60! 

And in the featured Grade 1 Donn I had originally thought it would be a good place to go against the three-year-old champion Will Take Charge.  But try as I might no one looked qualify to do so.  No one, as I wrote had faced company like he had in his last two in Mucho Macho Man and Game on Dude.  But when Game on Dude failed miserably on Saturday in the Grade 2 San Antonio I had second thoughts.  I heard trainer D. Wayne Lucas comment that "you always wonder about how a horse will run off a layoff, that isa concern...."  But like I told Kim he simply looks like the best horse here.  The one I was afraid of was Lea - I'd bet him last time in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope when trainer Bill Mott put him on the dirt for the first time and he won and paid $14 and change.  I looked hard at him to try and come up with some rationale that he'd go today's nine furlongs.  But his best races were all at a mile, like the Hal's Hope.  I also thought that in spite of the reputation of being a closer from well off the pace, Will Take Charge showed several races where he was only four or five off the leader.  And being fresh off a layoff I was sure he'd want to be more involved early.  Finally, I just figured they would not have sent him 20 hours in a van (that's how he was shipped) if they weren't serious about trying.  The race unfolded and he was laying less than four off the dueling leaders, saving all the ground on the rail.  Perfect position, and he'd been allowed to float to 7/5 odds - a great price on the lone Grade 1 winner in the field.  As they swung through into the turn I thought, all he needs is a seam he'll get one as the leaders separate.  But halfway through the turn jockey Luis Saez physically pulled Will Take Charge farther back off the pace and let five horses go by so now he was sixth coming out of the turn, just so he could get outside for a clear run.  Well by now it was too late.  Lea, the horse I feared most had surged to the front and had plenty left to outfinish the fast-closing Will Take Charge, 2nd.  Sigh......still, it was a great day!  The Groupie Doll race was well worth the price of admission in and of itself!

Groupie Doll - Groupie Doll - G-R-O-U-P-I-E  D-O-L-L-L!!!!!!!

 

 Donn Handicap Video Recap