Bookend The Day With Wins
Another day of "that's not what I was expecting" from my handicapping. I know at the end of the month when I do the three month totals I will be pleased overall, but here's the thing.....I was HAPPY with the way January went and was hoping that the entire rest of the meet / winter would go that way. Too much to imagine? Probably so. The day started, like Thursday - like Saturday - as though it could be a really good day. In the opener at Gulfstream I doubled the bet on Discussion Closed. This older sprinter "appears to tower" over his rivals I wrote. He was last seen in a $10K spot at Churchill Downs and was second by a nose....AND was claimed by Michael Maker for Ken & Sarah Ramsey. Javier Castellano was riding AND he was dropping into a $6.25K spot. The Gulfstream 40% Club angles: 40% with any runner below $40K for Maker, and 50% with any class dropper. The race went just as expected and I was a winner just like that!
I came back in the second and it seemed really obvious that it was one of two runners who would win. He's So Proud looked to be the favorite an had rattled multiple wins in a row - but they were either two-turns at Calder or one-turn miles here. I liked Horned Frog, who figured to be second choice. Another Maker-Castellano partnership AND he had won four of his last five races at this distance. He tracked He's So Proud, moved strongly through the lane and just couldn't quite get there.......second. I decided to pass both the third and fourth, and made the choice to pass the fifth because Blockade Runner would be a likely favorite for Maker & Castellano again. He'd never gone beyond six furlongs and today he was going a mile. The crowd let him go at his 4/1 program odds and he won easily - $10 and change and I should have had it. In the 6th it was a MSW for sophomores and I backed the Todd Pletcher $625K daughter of Malibu Moon, Hanalei Hailey. I figured she would not be the favorite but I did not like the favorite who'd already run second three times. As I watched on HRTV reporter Caton Bradar told the audience that the first two fillies she ran second to came back to dead-heat in the Grade 1 Schyulerville on Opening Day at Saratoga and that trainer Dale Romans thought she'd run really big today. Made me nervous. Rightfully so. Hanalei went off as the 5/2 second choice and tracked the favorite, but was no match late while second by daylight.....but that's the thing - second. Pecky's Boy was a disappointment in the 9th running 5th as the 8/5 choice. In the featured Grade 3 Sabin there were two Pletcher runners. I did not think that likely short-priced contender Sweet N Discreet would win, so I went with the "other Pletcher" runner, Private Ensign. Well, I was half right - Sweet N Discreet was second; but my third choice set a track record while winning - with Castellano up - wow - and Private Ensign struggled in last all the way around the track. In the finale, on the turf, I again went with Pletcher, only to see another Maker-Ramsey-Castellano "Kitten" win and pay $14. Talk about zigging when you should have been sagging!
I was fortunate close the day's racing with a win with my "Best" of the day. I had bet on Don't Tell Sophia at Oaklawn in the Pippin Stakes and she won with breath-taking ease. Today she was looking for a repeat in the Bayakoa Stakes. She was the favorite, of course, but when they left the gate she was not only last, but a "way-back" last as they hit the back stretch. I knew the pace was quick, but she was loping along like nobody's brother without a care in the world apparently. About mid-way up the backstretch it was like she said, "well, ok, let's get this thing done" and she began picking off runners without even really running hard. By the time they hit the far turn she was fourth; by the time they were mid-way on the turn she was three-wide and moving out of third into second; as heads turned for home she effortlessly ran right by the leader and was in front by daylight....again, without being asked to run. She drew off under a hand ride and was eased through the final 16th. Ultra-impressive. Didn't pay a lot, but I'd made her my best bet and she ran like it! Special holiday card tomorrow and then a much-needed two-day break after six consecutive days of racing and handicapping before we head towards Fountain of Youth Day on Saturday!
No comments:
Post a Comment