Day 41

UPSET of the Day WINS!

Makes My Day Profitable

With my Mom arriving this week and Kim having a doctor's appointment on Thursday, today was the only week day that I could enjoy a day at the races.  Before we get to the races for the day, just how lucky am I?  The weather all across the country is so very cold and covered in ice and snow while here it was sunny and in the 80s.  As I posted on my Facebook page
distinctly remember MANY days like today sitting in my classroom and thinking, "I am so looking forward to retirement because on a day like today, I will go to Gulfstream and enjoy live world class racing in gorgeous Florida winter weather."  And now, today I did!  AND cashed tickets while making a nice profit on the day!  My original plan was to bet the opener online, drive out there to arrive in time for the third and stay through the end of the day as I only had one other "pass" through the afternoon.  But a scratch meant I'd have not one but two breaks through the second half of the card.  So I audibled my plan, which would also enable me to beat the rush hour traffic, and headed out for the opener.  In the first I liked Benny's Baby Girl.  The other trainers in the race were 21-for-315 combined, while Michael Maker ALONE was 22-for-76.  That was enough for me.  This one was the DRF's Mike Welsch's "Best" of the day, and I briefly considered upping the bet.  But based on multiple seasons where I picked "against him" on a daily basis I know his "best" bets are hardly top picks (unlike Brad Free in California and Dave Liftin in New York).  So I held my wager at the minimum.  Jockey Javier Castellano showed why he's the best down here when he saved all the ground and scooted up the rail to the front turning for home.  But, Benny was only fourth best today at 2/1 odds.  Passed the second where my second choice won the race.  In the third I was pretty confident I had my first winner of the day in Todd Pletcher's Aspen Sky.  She'd been wide in her last and I thought she'd be yet another of the many, many Pletcher sophomores to break their maiden here.  She was flying late at 4/5, but could not catch the loose-on-the-lead winner, second.  Next up was the 4th, a maiden claimer for older runners.  When I first wrote my analysis I was going to pass the race.  But as I looked at the analysis I thought it was a good place to take a price play.  Here's what I wrote: 

After the Aspen Sky race I went back into the paddock, in the shade because it was actually HOT in the sun :).  I looked up at the board and the #5 was being well played at even money.  The #1 was 4/1, but instead of being a good price, Elusive Success was the 7/2 second choice.  Really, I thought......this was supposed to be a long shot.  But then I counseled myself that $9 was not a bad price at all.  So after checking out the horses in the walking ring I made my bet.  I walked to the rail with about five minutes to post and Elusive Success had drifted to 7/1.....that's nice I thought;  then it was 8/1, then 9/1.....I thought, could I actually cash for nearly $50?  Then 10/1 as they got in the gate.  I told myself that if the race ran the way I thought it would I would NOT take a photo of the finish, but I'd video it on my phone.  The favorite went to the front, but I knew, I KNEW as they moved up the backstretch I was going to win.  Elusive Success was pressing the pace just off the leader while running in hand and the top two were at least for clear of the field.  As they came through the final furlong I filmed the stretch run........

OH MY!  Winner-winner, chicken dinner!  While Elusive Success had dropped down to 9/1, the $20.80 payoff was good enough to indeed cash for over $50!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

I quickly calculated that even if I went a mere 1-for-7 today I would nearly break even, and a win in ANY of the last four races would lead me to the promise land of profits!  I thought I had an excellent shot at this in the last race before heading home.  Secret Fascination had multiple excuses in her last and today was dropping in class.  She was also Gulfstream's Christina Bassinakias' "Best" of the day.  She went off at a very fair 5/2, but was no better than an even fourth.  I left the bright blue skies and sunshine for the trip home and by the time I arrived back in Sunrise it was raining!  And it stormed most of the afternoon.....but it continued to be sunny at Gulfstream as I watched the races on HRTV.  In the 7th Underestimate Me went off at 3/1 and was a non-threatening sixth.  Passed the 8th and then in the 9th it was a wide-open, stakes quality Optional Claimer for a $100K price tag.  Several of these were exiting stakes efforts, but I thought they all had "issues" to overcome, while my pick, #2-Golden Lad, was riding a two-race winning streak for Todd Pletcher.  I thought would be just enough to carry him to victory over the more "proven" runners.  As they turned for home Golden Lad was on the lead but here came the classy Suns Out Guns Out, who I'd seen at the Breeders' Cup right to his neck!  They had a stirring stretch duel all the way to the wire..... PHOTO FINISH! 

The 2/1 price was juicy and I cashed for $30, making my day a profitable one with my "Best of the Day" yet to come in the finale.  EVERYONE liked Strategic Keeper in the turf finale.  Chad Brown was dropping this one from $35K to $25K and he's won at an amazing 71% over the last two years with his class droppers.  The 4/5 price seemed very fair to me.....but he could not catch the long-time front-running price horse and had to settle for second.  Still, nearly 30% winners and a flat bet profit on the day!