Day 45

One of the B-E-S-T Racing Adventures Of The Season

It was not a day filled with wins like the 18-win day last month; it was not a day that saw me score a profit of over $100 like the one mid-day afternoon on January 15.  But it WAS a GREAT day of weather, racing, and stories I'll recall for a long time. The Gr 1 Donn is one of the signature races of the meet and it was originally scheduled to be run yesterday, but this year the Fox Sports Network is televising a series of big races and they wanted the Donn to be the first in the series.  But for some reason it fit their schedule best to go on Sunday so Gulfstream moved the race and it's accompanying Grade 1, the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.  I headed out to Gulfstream early with Mom and Kim and we were going to meet our good friends Stephanie and Jim Anderson.  I told them that we were coming early because I anticipated a huge crowd and parking to be a problem.  That had been the case on Sunshine Millions Day when I came out with Ed, and that day is not nearly as big a deal as today.  But when we arrived there were parking spaces abound!  I even got a front row spot just three in from the corner.....what the ?????  I commented to the lady that collects tickets in "our section" and her reply was that the word around the facility was that a lot of people were very unhappy that the race had been moved to Sunday.  I thought, as the day went on that it was a very big crowd, but it was not any bigger than any Saturday when there had been graded stakes, so for that I was a little disappointed.  But, the weather was excellent, especially for my Mom who cannot be out in the Sun.  It was in the upper 70's or low 80's from start to finish with a nice breeze and quite a lot of cloud cover.  You could always see blue in the sky but rarely was the sun beating down on the crowd.....we would have been in the shade, but as you can see in the highlight video of the races below, it generally was not a sun-splashed scene.  In fact, if anything as the day went on it was a bit "chilly" by Florida standards.  Kim went so far as to say that she would not have sat outside if she had not had her sweater on! 

I had debated about handicapping more cards for the day or just enjoying a more leisurely day with the family.  In the end I decided I would get the Racing Form and try to be very selective.  So when Kim and I went for coffee Saturday morning we stopped where I get the Racing Form and the delivery had not been made yet.  OK, that's the racing gods way of telling me to just focus on Gulfstream I figured!  The racing began with two races going a one-turn mile and I did not win either.  In the opener I liked Helluva Hunch.  He stalked the leader to the turn and surged to the front.....only to be run down in the final 16th, second at 2/1.  In the second I liked Todd Pletcher's Dewey Square.  First, he was making his first start for Pletcher - and that nearly always results in a big effort; second he was running for a claiming tag, which is a big percentage win for the barn; and he was dropping in class.  All this led to him being the 8/5 favorite.  He stalked the pace in third, dropped back, but re-rallied....not enough, third.  But it was in the third I notched my first win.  It was a claiming event and we were on the turf.  My pick was another Pletcher runner, Hothersal.  I thought I had a fair price play as he had not won since scoring on the main track back in 2012!  But his first win was actually HERE over this turf course.  He had run some big races in graded company without winning then was gone for 18 months.  He came back last summer/fall to run three big races, earning Beyers of 90-91-89 without winning, but all in allowance company.  In his most recent he set he pace for more than a mile of a marathon turf event.  Today he dropped into the claiming ranks for a first time tag, and that is a big 47% win angle; but even bigger, when Pletcher runs horses for a tag of less than $40K it is a 54% win angle!  But when the betting opened he was on the board at a miniscule 1-9!  Someone had dropped a TON of early money on him.  His price floated up as they approached post time, but instead of being a nice 5/2 or 2/1 he was 4/5.  He pressed the pace from third, moved strongly on the turn and held the field at bay to the wire!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

The best part was that this was my biggest bet of the day so far and so in spite of being an odds-on favorite I was now in the black for the day!  Next up was, for me, the most anticipated race of the day.  It was the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie going 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt.  And the star attraction was two-time Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll!  She has been on my "Wall of Fame" for two years now and I thought after big score in this past fall's Breeders' Cup she would not race again.  But her new owners decided to take one more shot at the Met Mile.  A poor trip compromised her chances and I really think they wanted her to go out with a win.  That and she was still training like she meant business.  So I'd read a couple months ago that she would conclude her career either at Gulfstream or at another track, but she had one more race to go.  When they picked this spot I was delighted and had circled this date on my calendar - before they even moved the Donn to today.  As late as Friday the racing office was having trouble getting opposition to run against here with only two rivals signed on to take on the champion!  So they doubled the purse from $100K to $200K and go a field of seven.  I had told myself that even though on paper she looked like much the best, there was a realistic chance that maybe her best days were behind her, especially with the she's retired - no she's not - yes, now she is - wait, one more race back and forth thinking.  But I was going to bet her like she deserved to be bet.....as a Breeders' Cup Champion running in a Grade 3.  She was hammered down to 1-9, but floated up to a fair 2/5 at post time.  Then the gates opened and she was left flat footed in the gate some ten plus lengths behind the field.  Visions of the movie "Seabiscuit" when he dropped back like he was no longer interested in racing went through my head and I thought what a sad way to end her career.  But as the closely bunched field sped up the backstretch she was gaining ground on them heading into the turn.  You could see she'd found another gear and was beginning to pass horses mid-way on the turn, but she was wide and having to make up a lot of ground.....could she sustain the bid?  She was FIVE wide as they turned for home, and then in a blink of an eye she'd sprinted to the front.....that was amazing enough, but it was like Groupie Doll, was saying to the cheering fans, "...you think that was something, watch this!....." and she hit overdrive and opened up with a turn of foot that was sensational - dazzling and drew off by open lengths just missing the track record!  It was truly one of the more memorable race moments I've ever seen live.  And when she jogged back to the stands it was to an ovation from a full house of racing fans. 

VERY cool - as was my winning $50 "BET of the DAY" ticket that netted me a return of $70!  In the fifth I thought that Darley Stable's Gratitude had a real chance to take down the likely favored Pletcher runner.  Well, I was right that the Pletcher horse would not win, but it wasn't Gratitude - who was the 3/2 favorite - who won....he ran evenly to be 4th.  Pletcher ran second to a longshot.  I passed the 6th, a turf sprint that seemed impossible to decipher; the winner paid over $40!  In the 7th I liked first-time for Marty Wolfson Vita Vittoria - horses making their first start for him win at a big 30% clip.  But she stumbled so badly she went to her knees, but recovered and sprinted up to challenge for the lead through the turn.  No way she'd be around at the finish.....and she did, in fact she deserves credit for hanging around as long as she did to mid-stretch before finishing sixth.  In the eighth it was my "Upset of the Day."  Mr. Besilu had been my pick as a first-time starter last June at Downs After Dark.  As a $4.2 million purchase running for Bill Mott and the powerful Besilu Stables he HAD to have some ability....but he was fifth that night.  His next was on the turf and he ran a credible third.  Two more misses since and now today he was coming back in a short seven days.  As I wrote in my analysis the only time I've seen conservative Mott do this was with Emollient last year when she came out of the Gulfstream Oaks to run on the synthetic Keeneland surface seven days later in the Grade 1 Ashland and she scored at a big price.  Today Mr. Besilu was back in seven days and changing surfaces.....uh oh.  But he ran evenly at 5/1 and was fortunate to finish fifth.  In the 9th I backed another Mott runner, this time because John Velazquez was on board.....they have scored at a 57% rate over the last two winters.  AND last weekend they teamed up on my "Best" at $12.40 and the next day at a $38 payoff.  Sward was 14/1 as they left the gate.  He made a bold move on the turn to reach third and I thought, uh oh, here we go, my "Day-maker!!"  But he faded to be 6th. 

The third and final "great story" of the day came in the 10th.  I had told Stephanie and Jim early before the racing started that I figured I needed and should win four races to make money today.  And I really thought I had a big chance at a big day....but I also knew I had a lot of picks that were NOT the logical win contenders.  So here we are in the 10th and I only had two winners so far.  My pick was Sapphire Blue on the turf - it was just a minimum wager for me, check out the analysis.......

As I looked over my analysis I thought, "why am I not at least doubling the bet with all these positive angles?"  I walked in to see the Double and Pick-3 payoffs and on the screen was a "DRF Formulator Fact:  Trainer Michael Maker and jockey Javier Castellano are winning at a 40% rate together this winter at Gulfstream!"  That's it, I'm TRIPLING the bet I thought!  His past performances showed three good turf efforts, two of those showed him coming from mid-pack or farther back and once he stalked the leaders from two to three lengths off the leader.  So I figured his off-the-pace style would off-set the outside post.  My only concern as they approached the gate was that speed has seemed to be really hard to run down on the turf course; and while you could make a case that the closers were either not the best horse or were pace-compromised earlier today on the turf Castellano had wired a field going a :22 and change and then :46 and change on the lead and had held on, in spite of it being a maiden event going nine furlongs.....there was no way that horse should have held on....that was a course-biased wire-to-wire win.  So when they loaded into the gate I was hopeful he'd have Sapphire Blue close to the leaders.  But as the latch sprung Castellano gunned Sapphire Blue right to the front.  He handily cleared the field and was off to the races.  The pace was a reasonable :47 and change and as they turned for home he was in front by daylight.  While there were a couple of pressers being asked for run, it was clear to me that There was more than enough gas in the tank to hold on.  HORRAY!!!!!  

And even better, not only had his post-time odds floated above 9/5 to 2/1, but it was well over the flat 2.0-1 as he paid $6.60.  And since I'd tripled the bet I was cashing for nearly $50!  I did a quick mental calculation and determined that I'd nearly break even regardless of how the next two races played out.  I was MORE than happy with that if I was unable to score in either of the features.  In the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap I did not like any of the four obvious favorites; they all had issues that I thought would compromise their chances of winning.  I wasn't avoiding them because I thought the price was too short compare to their chances to win, I did not think they'd win, period.  I went with the only Grade 1 winner in the field (old racing adage, "Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses), and that was Boisterous.  Granted, his lone Grade 1 score was a weak Grade 1 event.  And all his wins were on less-than-firm turf.  But today he was making his first start since being transferred to Todd Pletcher's barn and he'd worked a quick bullet workout recently.  I was willing to gamble that Pletcher had put more speed in him and would improve him enough to run well on the firm course......especially since I thought the others had problems that would prevent them from winning.  He stalked the pace and was in the right place midway on the turn, but had no stretch kick.  To my credit NONE of the favorites were able to get to the wire first either!  Instead the winner was a horse who three back had broken his maiden and in his last he won a nw1x allowance race - hardly Grade 1 credentials!  And I read later it was the first-EVER Grade 1 win for the barn or the jockey.....no wonder he paid $80.60! 

And in the featured Grade 1 Donn I had originally thought it would be a good place to go against the three-year-old champion Will Take Charge.  But try as I might no one looked qualify to do so.  No one, as I wrote had faced company like he had in his last two in Mucho Macho Man and Game on Dude.  But when Game on Dude failed miserably on Saturday in the Grade 2 San Antonio I had second thoughts.  I heard trainer D. Wayne Lucas comment that "you always wonder about how a horse will run off a layoff, that isa concern...."  But like I told Kim he simply looks like the best horse here.  The one I was afraid of was Lea - I'd bet him last time in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope when trainer Bill Mott put him on the dirt for the first time and he won and paid $14 and change.  I looked hard at him to try and come up with some rationale that he'd go today's nine furlongs.  But his best races were all at a mile, like the Hal's Hope.  I also thought that in spite of the reputation of being a closer from well off the pace, Will Take Charge showed several races where he was only four or five off the leader.  And being fresh off a layoff I was sure he'd want to be more involved early.  Finally, I just figured they would not have sent him 20 hours in a van (that's how he was shipped) if they weren't serious about trying.  The race unfolded and he was laying less than four off the dueling leaders, saving all the ground on the rail.  Perfect position, and he'd been allowed to float to 7/5 odds - a great price on the lone Grade 1 winner in the field.  As they swung through into the turn I thought, all he needs is a seam he'll get one as the leaders separate.  But halfway through the turn jockey Luis Saez physically pulled Will Take Charge farther back off the pace and let five horses go by so now he was sixth coming out of the turn, just so he could get outside for a clear run.  Well by now it was too late.  Lea, the horse I feared most had surged to the front and had plenty left to outfinish the fast-closing Will Take Charge, 2nd.  Sigh......still, it was a great day!  The Groupie Doll race was well worth the price of admission in and of itself!

Groupie Doll - Groupie Doll - G-R-O-U-P-I-E  D-O-L-L-L!!!!!!!

 

 Donn Handicap Video Recap