Day 74

Inside Information Day

Thirteen WINS!

 

The original plan for today was to head out to Gulfstream for a full day of racing and simulcasting selections.  But then the weather forecast came out indicating a 60% chance of thunderstorms, and when I looked at the future-cast radar it showed a big thunderstorm cell moving over Gulfstream between 1 and 2 pm and another one hitting around 3 pm and lasting for more than an hour.  As I checked that online it started to pour here.  Add in that my #1 ranked Florida Gators were playing at 12:25 pm in the 3rd round of the NCAA March Madness Tournament and I made the decision to stay home and play online while I watched basketball.  I was afraid that if I went there would be a lot of changes not only here, but at other tracks and I'd end up sitting around a lot as well.  Well, as it turned out it never did rain at Gulfstream....they were cloudy some of the day, and mostly sunny most of the day.  And from my original list of 33 selections there were only two scratches!  And it was a big 42% winning day for me! 

The winning started right away with the first race on my sheet, the opener at Tampa where I thought King Rock looked much the best as the favorite.  He'd won three of his last four, all here with the leading rider on board for all three wins.  In fact the only race he did not ride in that stretch was the loss.  King Rock was much the best and I cashed for a quick $15.  It was over an hour before my next race, the second at Gulfstream.  Exclusive Ute dropped from $65K to $35K in his last and was down to the bottom today.  But he was only second best at 2/1.  Right back into the winner's circle with Bings Express at Calder where he too looked like a much-the-best favorite.  Four of his last five Beyers towered over his rivals today and he ran to those numbers going virtually wire-to-wire.  Cashed for nearly $15 again.  Another miss at Gulfstream when Lovely was sent off at even money sprinting five furlongs on the turf.  But he broke slowly and was swung wide late to get third.  The next race on my sheet was my "BEST" in New York.  Tiger Tank was second in his last start in a Maiden Special at Gulfstream.  The winner that day, Social Inclusion ran a 103 Beyer and came right back in allowance company to run a 111, breaking the track record for the distance and defeating Kentucky Derby favorite, graded stakes winning Honor Code.  Social Inclusion is slated to start next out in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.  Everyone was on board and Tiger Tank left the gate at 1/5, which I thought was a fair price.  Stalked the leader to the turn and then took off, long gone for my third win on the day.  Missed at the Fair Grounds when I dueled to the stretch then faded to 4th and then was second at Calder after trailing by SIXTEEN lengths down the backstretch.....close, but not close enough.  But then it was back-to-back-to-back WINS!  Returned to New York where Bay of Plenty was easily best going wire to wire under wraps - cashed or nearly $30; Tampa was next.  I'd bet Press Baron in his last and he disappointed, but today he made no mistakes at 4/5 and I scored for nearly $20 more.  Topped the "trifecta" when Master's Degree dueled to mid-stretch and edged clear in a Fair Grounds maiden sprint.  A string of six misses dulled the "thrill of victory" - including a win by the Gators who pulled clear late to draw off by fifteen points.  But around 4 pm I five out of seven, including my first stakes score.

At the Fair Grounds, Bump Bump rallied from just off the pace when sprinting on the turf.  Trainer Tom Amos was 50% with maiden specials dropping in for a tag and 36% with his turn back runners.  Paid a healthy $8.40 leading to a $20 payout.  Right back with my "best" at Calder with Unseen Visitor.  Trainer Marty Wolfson has been stabled at Calder for years, but their meager winter program has led him to run nearly all his horses at Gulfstream.  But the three who had run here had ALL WON!  add in that jockey Edgar Zayas was scoring at a big 53% for Wolfson and I thought the post-time odds of 6/5 were a gift.  EASILY!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Cashed for over $30.  The second at Santa Anita was a turf sprint down the hillside - love those races!  The DRF's Brad Free had made La Sorella his "Best" of the day.  He wrote in his analysis that this particular trainer was winning 44% with his favorites sprinting down the hill.  Chalk up another as La Sorella wired the field under Mike Smith without ever taking a deep breath!  ANOTHER $30 plus!  After a close second at Aqueduct I got my lone winner of the day at Gulfstream when top rider Javier Castellano put Chad Brown's Madaket Millie on the lead and she never looked back. 

The only surprise.....she paid $10.20!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  The fifth win in the sequence was in Aqueduct's feature, the Grade 3 Excelsior.  Long River was the obvious choice having won back to back stakes with top figures.  Had a sharp work for a 42% jockey-trainer team as well.  Long River made his move on the turn, and dueled with the leader to deep stretch.....but couldn't get by!  NO WORRIES!  The winner was his entry-mate!  Ha ha ha!  Whoop whoop.....winning without picking the winner! 

Two stakes disappointments followed - Vagabond Shoes was the favorite in Santa Anita's Grade 2 San Luis Rey and was making his move down the backstretch when he broke down.  Sad :(  Then in Gulfstream's featured Grade 2 Inside Information trainer Marty Wolfson entered three.  One figured to be late running to get a piece, but not the win; the other two were a toss-up.  Heart Stealer had won the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl but Centrique was a perfect 3-for-3 over the course and was 4/2-0-1 at today's seven furlong distance.  DRF's Mike Beer liked Heart Stealer as she would be the best price of the three, but for me it was significant that top jockey Javier Castellano had ridden both of these fillies in their last win here and he went with Centrique.  Good enough for me.....sure enough she was the 7/5 favorite, but Heart Stealer won the race and paid double-digits....sigh.  No time to cry over spilled milk as my "Best" of the day in New Orleans was up next in their featured Red Camellia Stakes.  I Dazzle was breaking from post ten but had a rallying style so I wasn't worried.  She moved on the turn, collared the leader as heads turned for home and then literally "dazzled" to score as MUCH the best! 

And the final win of the day came with my "BEST" of the day at Santa Anita in their co-feature, the Pasadena Stakes for 3-year-olds going a mile on the turf.  Jockey Gary Stevens for trainer Tom Proctor for Glen Hills Farms....duh!  And add in that this colt was a perfect 2-for-2 at this distance, over this course with one of those being a stakes win!  Stevens had him perfectly placed tracking the leaders and began moving entering the turn, but was stopped when he clipped heels and nearly went down.  But the Hall of Fame jockey got him back in rhythm and he moved three wide to the front and looked to be a winner drawing off when a closer with all the momentum came flying.....oh, so close......but on the wire Enterprising had his nose down first!  The 7/5 odds led t nearly $50 on my last winning ticket!

Days 72 - 73

March 20 - 21

The last two days of the week saw me get inconsistent results. On Thursday I had two of four horses outrun early taking them out of any real chance of scoring, and two horses set the pace under what looked like comfortable fractions, only to give way late. The lone winner on the day was a remarkable score in the 6th. Ulanbator was away slowly in a one turn mile Maiden Special for sophomores. As he tried to come up the inside under "I always find trouble" Julian Leparoux where he was too close to the front runners, clipped heels and nearly went down. Not to be denied, he regained his footing and came up in between horses when in tight. Finally got free on the outside and seemed to have the 4/5 favorite measured, but could not get by until the final head bob (below left).

On Friday I scored twice in back-to-back races when my horses were TONS the best....but were no secret as either to the crowd as they both went off at 3/5. In the third Palatine Hill had set a absurdly fast pace the last time going 8 1/2 furlongs when fresh off a layoff. I thought Javier Castellano would sit just off Sir Edgar today and blow by on the turn.....the race went EXACTLY as I had envisioned it. The only surprise was when my pick came to the front runner he looked like a gargantuan monster - Palatine HIll is a HUGE horse! Romped home as TONS the best (middle) as my "Best" of the day.

Right back in the fourth when Take Time To Pray utilized the same kind of trip to score in a huge way. He might have been a vulnerable favorite coming off a career best speed figure when loose on an easy lead. But his previous race had also earned a solid figure and those two together were BOTH better than anything his rivals had ever run. Hard to look past Double Beyer horses. Easily best.

In the 8th I had a 12/1 horse who made a threatening move on the turn but flattened out behind my second choice who paid over $9 and probably SHOULD have been my top pick. Not the biggest of weekends coming up in terms of stakes or big horses running, but heading out for the first time in two weeks!

Day 71

A  G-R-E-A-T  Start To The Week!

What a wonderful way to start off the next-to-last week of the Championship meeting.  For the Wednesday card I had selected seven runners from the ten race card.  As a side note, it's interesting to me that every winter when I handicap Gulfstream I always seem to have multiple picks on a daily basis while the rest of the year I don't have nearly as many on any card at any other track.....not sure if it's because I WANT to play Gulfstream or if I truly have runners with an edge.  All I know is that I enjoy the racing at Gulfstream very much!  So the day started off with a Maiden Claimer in the third.  My pick was Sneaky Blowout.  He was a solid second in his debut at the tough Saratoga meeting for a $50K price tag.  He was claimed away by Michael Maker who had run him in Maiden Specials since.  His last was a failed turf experiment, so today's surface switch and a turn back to seven furlongs seemed to be the right move.  Add in that Maker has been a Gulfstream 40% Club member with an amazing 50% win rate with class droppers over the last two winters.  He was the 1/2 favorite and he dueled through the lane to JUST get up. 

Unfortunately I only had the minimum investment so my payout was a meager $7.50.  Right back in the fourth with a turf claiming event I made Kanagaro my top choice.  Three years ago in an allowance race that wrapped up the Florida Derby card I had put him on top.  He was narrowly beaten that day by a promising colt named Za Approval who has gone on to be a multiple stakes winner.  Last summer Kanagaro had won back-to-back events at this one mile distance, but over the synthetic track at Presque Isles.  So I knew he liked the distance and I felt he was a turf runner - based on my previous handicapping.  He had back to back bullet works so I thought he was ready to fire.  He was listed at a generous 3/1 in the program and the crowd let him go off at that same price.  He made his move on the far turn and then blew the race wide open by romping home by daylight!  WHOOO HOOO! 

The $8.40 payoff netted me over $20 in spite of the minimum investment.  I was going for the "trifecta" by putting Ooohs and Aaahs on top in the fifth.  This was a 2-lifetime sprint going seven furlongs on the main track and I thought this was one of "those races" where my pick was either MUCH the best or had gone so far off form he'd finish off the board.  He had scored in just his second career start and was a solid third against allowance company in his next.  But then he was vanned off in a failed stakes try.  He was sent off at 5/1 in allowance company but was well beaten over a sloppy surface.  So the question for me was the drop into a $20K 2L event a fire sale or a reasonable drop to get a confidence boosting win?  I went with the latter and doubled the event.  He was listed at 5/1 in the program and the crowd must have had many of the same concerns as I did as he left the gate at 3/1.  He stalked the pace to he turn, moved up the rail and then drew off under wraps by six or more widening lengths!  AWESOME!   My THIRD WIN IN A ROW! 

He too paid a generous $8.40 which meant I cashed for over $40!  Guaranteed to profit for the day now!  In the 7th I led from the moment the gates sprung open in a mile and a half maiden special event.  But she was run down late to be third.  In the eighth Molly Morgan was my "surprise package" of the day.  She was 12/1 in the program, but left the gate at 6/1.  I thought the race was ripe for an upsetter and she stalked the pace like I thought then made her move entering the stretch.....not good enough to get to the front, third.  But in the ninth I was in the winner's circle again.  Drunken Love had won three of his last five turf starts and was a NINE time winner at the distance.  He had enough speed to get to the front from post nine but I thought he could also stalk.  I knew he'd be the favorite, but I also was aware that he had no room for error.  No worries!  Broke sharply out of the gate, right to the front and took the field to the top of the lane in :21.4 - :43.3 with a couple of close-up pressers.  But then he spurted clear to win comfortably! 

The $5.20 payoff led to nearly $30 to me.  The final race of the card, and on my selection sheet was an optional claiming event going a flat mile on the turf.  Angel's South was the most likely winner of the day I thought.  She was dropping out of back-to-back stakes tries including a hear-breaking third in a three-way photo to behind multiple stakes winning Byrama in the Ten Palms last out.  She dueled to mid-stretch on the lead, then cleared from the field, an apparent winner......only to be caught on the wire.  Soooo close.  But for the day I'd hit with four of seven and made over $35 for the day!  WHOOOO HOOOO.

Day 70

March 16 - A Tale of Two Decisions Gone Wrong

After the great day on Saturday it was such a disappointment that Sunday turned out to be the third time in as many weeks that I went winless. It was a combination of bad racing luck, horses not running to their paper form, and most especially two decisions that went wrong. After losing with my "Upset of the Day" with my first selection in the 2nd (Lighthouse Sound who was 8/1 - not the best of trips) it was foreshadowing on the day when I lost the 4th, a Maiden Special event. When I scanned through the past performances I first noted that Taketothestreets was a likely vulnerable favorite at a short price, and I tabbed Pazolini to spring the upset. So my analysis was as it appears below, next to Pazolini's past performances. I continued through the card and then I got to the 7th race, a nw1x optional allowance event and I thought that Todd Pletcher's Accelerare was a standout. Then I noted that Accelerare had just beaten Taketothestreets. Hmmm, my opinion of one of these must be off - if Taketothestreets is vulnerable then that would make Accelerare a vulnerable favorite. So I looked at the latter's past performances. Accelerare had been second prior to his last out win to a horse named Moreno. That colt had come right back to win the Gr 2 Dwyer and then run second in back-to-back graded events - just missing in the Travers and then clearly second best in the Pennsylvania Derby. To me that makes Accelerare a strong runner, so by default that makes Taketothestreets a much stronger pick. So I backed up to the fourth and rewrote the analysis to put Taketothestreets on top.....you see how that worked out.

Back to the live action after Pazolini wins at nearly $7 - I would have cashed for over $30 - the 5th was my "BEST" of the day with Tea's Two Step. Trainer Saffie Joseph, WHO?, was a Gulfstream 40% Club member with a single angle - class droppers. This situation had occured only seven times over the last two winters and he'd won four of them and second in two others - that's a 57% WIN average! Got one of the worst rides as Joel Rosario did not get him away cleanly, then when among horses in the second flight behind a trio of front runners he took him all the way to the back of the field. He made a late run and went by everyone, but the winner. WOW. That would have been another $60 - good pick, bad racing luck. Then came the seventh with Accelerare. You have to figure, if Taketothestreets was a vulnerable favorite, that Accelerare would perform similarly.....he was, finishing 6th at 6/5, as the winner was 30/1 and the second place runner was 18/1. The day continued it's doward spiral when in the 8th it was another Maiden Special for sophomores. As I began to look through the past performances I stopped on #5 - Size. Bill Mott is not one to win with debut runners, and the works usually reflect that they aren't working swiftly. But this gal looked live. Hmmmm, might be a nice price if there isn't a Pletcher runner. Then I got down to #12 Hanalei Hailey. She had debuted with a trouble line and the winner had come right back to surprise as second best in a listed stakes last Sunday. So I dismissed Size and relegated her to my second pick and put Pletcher on top....see my analysis. Size was up in the final strides as Hanalei Hailey faded to the back of the pack - and look at the price Size paid! Even a $5 investment would have returned $75. Two bad decisions probably cost me over $100 and a profit on the day; toss in another $60 for bad racing luck - and then the topper to the day was in the 10th where I did not win because the race was declared a "No Contest" due to a fallen jockey impacting the running of the race. The only good news to the day was that I still made a profit of more than $50 for the weekend, and barely in the black for the week.

Day 69

What A  G - R - E - A - T   Day!

Finally - One of "THOSE" Days!

Profit = $139!

Finally, after multiple days of winning my fair share, but not making any money, I had a big day.  Ironically it came after changing plans to drive Kim up to Orlando for Lauren's bridal shower, so it meant no simulcast handicapping, and no visits to the track.  I handicapped the Saturday card on Thursday and of the eleven races I found eight where I thought I had an edge.  None of them inspired me to go "prime time" or even triple the investment, but all of them were worthy of a double investment.  I passed the opener but in the second I had an upset selection.  As I wrote in my analysis, "....he does not have outstanding credentials for the win spot here, but then, do any of them?  - but he has one very solid angle that makes him my top selection....today he goes first off the claim for trainer Michael Pino....." As I noted, Pino is a Gulfstream 40% Club member with a single angle....first off the claim.  Over the last two winters he has scored with a sharp 42% of those.  And at a generous 5/1 in the program I doubled up on him.  On With The Show broke sharply and dueled to the turn before forging to a short lead.  As they turned for home he was still under pressure and I would not have been surprised to see him fold, but instead he kept going and drew clear late to score by over a length.  And the best part was he was 6/1 at post time, producing a payout of $15! 

With my bet that meant I was cashing for $75 and had nearly paid for the day's eight race slate already!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Next up I was third with Chad Brown's first time starter Pink Poppy at 5/2; and failed again in the 4th when Sea Queen was no better than fourth at a very short 3/5.  But my second winner, which guaranteed a profit for the day came in the 6th where we were going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  Hey Leroy had first drawn my attention five races back when Major Marvel was defeated at odds-on by 'Leroy who earned a career best 90+ Beyer that day.  Since then he'd run 90's in two of his next four despite running second in four straight.  But upon closer examination I was willing to excuse all four of them!  Four back he was second best behind a loose-on-the-lead stakes winner who dropped into the allowance conditions and handily went wire to wire.  Three back he was second best to another loose-on-the-lead multiple stakes winner.  Two back he was ran and was steadied; and in his last he was the 2/1 favorite but was moved to the front prematurely by a low percentage rider.  Today he got Elvis Trujillo, a veteran of multiple graded wins over the turf.  He had him in the right spot today and turning for home he wore down the front runner, who was an 11-1 loose-on-the-lead pace setter!  Just edged up in the final sixteenth, and considering the rest of the field regularly topped out in the mid-80s on the Beyer scale the 3/1 post-time price was generous. 

The tote board flashed up $8.40 when it was official and I was cashing for over $40!  Awesome!  Todd Pletcher's first time starter, American Bond was allowed to leave the gate at a big 6/1, but ran to those long odds when 8th.  Right back to the winner's circle in the ninth however with Bill Mott's Pinball.  I'd picked him on top last time when he made his initial turf start off of three straight dirt scores.  He wired the field that day and paid over $7.  Today he was the only one in here with a win over the course and that Mott is a Gulfstream 40% Club member with two applying angles:  John Velazquez riding - 57% and moving up in class - 42%.  I thought he might rate today, but Velazquez had him battling on the lead to the top of the lane and then he spurted clear.  He was all out to hold off the closers, but safely under the wire at yet another good price. 

This time the board showed $6.40 which meant I was cashing for over $30!  In the Grade 2 Honey Fox I just could not bet Centre Court with Julian Leparoux, and besides I have always been a fan of Bill Mott's Tapicat....who was a perfect 3-for-3 over the course. Tapicat was the tepid 5/2 favorite and was a non-threatening fifth while Centre Court defended her 2013 Honey Fox title.  The last race of the day and on my betting slate was a Maiden Special for sophomores.  Lawn Party was a Todd Pletcher first time starter for Javier Castellano, for the powerful Stonestreet Stables....duh.  She was the 3/1 second choice in the program, and while Pletcher is not nearly as effective on the turf, his prices there are often more generous.  Such was the case when the crowd let her go at a giant 6/1!  She sat fourth into the turn and then Castellano asked the $675K daughter of Medaglia d'Oro to run.  She exploded four wide to inhale the field and set sail for the wire as CLEARLY the best!  The payoff was an astounding $14.00....on a Pletcher debut sophomore?  For real? 

FOR REAL!  I was cashing for $70 to run my record for the day to:

8 / 4 - 0 -1

Wagered $80 / Collected $219.00

TOTAL PROFIT:  $139.00

 

Truly, one of "those days" and it boosted me to a clear profit for the week!

Day 68

March 14

Yet another day in the continued procession of my horses not running to their form....sigh.....In the third we were going a mile on the turf and Heaven Help Me was my pick. Sent off at a fair 5/2, she set a reasonable pace, and was easily on the lead - spurted clear at the top of the lane, nailed inside the final 100 yards to be second. But I bounced right back in the 4th. This could easily have been a stakes race with all five of them former stakes winners. But the key here was all five were also "off form." So the key would be to predict which would produce something close to his best form. I knew the crowd would settle on Apriority, who was the track record holder at this distance - but that was three years ago; since then he'd only won one time, and that was three back in a spot like this. He had run the best, last-race figure as well, but he seemed untrustworthy to me and I noted that ever big effort was followed by a bounce. The likely pace setter, which would be dangerous if loose was Cajun Breeze....but he had a 5-for-125 rider for an 0-for-13 trainer. Seemed unlikely to hold on. So, I landed on Action Andy who two years ago had been a sharp stakes winner. But his two runs this season were better than they looked. He was wide in his 2014 debut in a very fast paced affair that didn't give him a chance; in his last, the Super Stakes he faced a very talented winner and ran deceptively well to be third while well clear of the rest of the field. I projected him to stalk Cajun Breeze and blow by in the stretch, and all he had to do was hold on over the out-of-form closers, like Apriority. The gates opened and the race went EXACTLY as I saw it.....the only thing I did not forsee was that Action Andy was under a hand ride the entire time and won under wraps!

Like so many of the previous days, it was only the second race and the payoff of nearly $30 put me in the black to start the day.  But Street Trick in the 5th was a disappointing 5th; then Best Behavior who looked much the best on paper was a fading 3rd at 6/5 and Aunt Ruby's Kitten showed little when sent off at 8/5 and finishing a beaten fifth.  And so it's another day of showing red ink at the bottom of the ledger.

Day 67

March 13 - 14

The good news was that to start the week I went a combined 3-for-9 over the two day span. The bad news was that on BOTH days I failed to reach a profit. On Wednesday, I had Horse-for-the-Course Blues and Silvers in the second, my first bet of the day.  He was 3-for-4 over the course and looked to be able to take these wire to wire.  He got an early pace challenge, but the fractions were not too fast;  I thought he easily could have dismissed that rival and had plenty left for the stretch.  But I did not think our chances evaporated when the rider let the longshot go and stalked the pace.  Blues and Silver moved easily to the front, but could not withstand the late closer and was a close-up second.  No problem as I came right back to score in the third when I supported Team Calabrese's Tale of Peace in a non-winners of three lifetime sprint with top rider Javier Castellano on board.  Moved to challenge on the turn and wore down the leader in deep stretch while being confidently handled! 

Cashed for a mere $13 with the minimum.  I only had two other plays and El Gran Joyful was the price play in the fifth at 7/1.  Never a threat, checking in eighth.  So, it came down to Honor Code winning the feature to launch his 3yo campaign and he disappointed in second. Not surprised after hearing Shug McGaughey say they just wanted him to have a good race. But he still should have EASILY run down that loose-on-the-lead last-out maiden winner. Sigh......

Then on Thursday I won four of the ten races. Sadly I only bet on five of the races and one of the two wins that I missed was when I listed a $19.00 winner on top with the comment that, "....may be worth a shot in this evenly matched group....." then decided against investing.  In the fourth I went against the 4/5 favorite (who was my second choice) in Veramundo.  He was the class of the field, dropping out of the Grade 1 Donn into this $25K optional claimer, but as a deep closer over the speed-favoring Gulfstream main track, not for me. I went with Bernie the Maestro who was the second choice at 9/5.  He led to the top of the lane and then Vermundo came flying like a freight train, right on by.....second.  Much like Wednesday I bounced right back, only this time I won with not only the next race but the NEXT TWO!  In the 5th, a maiden claimer on the turf, I went with Main Man Mike.  His first three starts saw him line up in the gate with future graded stakes stars Revolutionary, Orb, and Jack Milton.  He had excuses in his last two and the rider upgrade to a jockey winning at a 43% clip for the barn.  He won at a nice 2/1, pulling away in deep stretch.  But I'd only bet the minimum, so I only netted $15.  In the sixth I came right back to score over the turf in a claiming event when Jesse Can Mambo was MUCH the best at even money. 

Castellano again was in the saddle for me and I cashed for $10.50.  In the 7th Be My Love was the 2/1 choice and I doubled the bet as she'd won three of her last four turf sprints.  Led into the lane, and weakened to be third.  Awesome Vow in the 9th was my strongest play of the day.  She was a 10x winner, including five of her last nine .  The trainer was a 35% winner in 2013 and off to a 28% start here this season.  She'd won at this level in AOC company nw1x FOUR times and was the LONE SPEED!  Right to the front and in the clear by two open lengths at the furlong marker......run down in the final 16th to be second at 6/5.
With the two wins I had being the two smallest wagers of the day, I got a strong 40% winning percentage in handicapping for the day, but lost money, again. Such is the trend at the present. Hoping for bigger and better things through the remainder of the week!