Day 70

March 16 - A Tale of Two Decisions Gone Wrong

After the great day on Saturday it was such a disappointment that Sunday turned out to be the third time in as many weeks that I went winless. It was a combination of bad racing luck, horses not running to their paper form, and most especially two decisions that went wrong. After losing with my "Upset of the Day" with my first selection in the 2nd (Lighthouse Sound who was 8/1 - not the best of trips) it was foreshadowing on the day when I lost the 4th, a Maiden Special event. When I scanned through the past performances I first noted that Taketothestreets was a likely vulnerable favorite at a short price, and I tabbed Pazolini to spring the upset. So my analysis was as it appears below, next to Pazolini's past performances. I continued through the card and then I got to the 7th race, a nw1x optional allowance event and I thought that Todd Pletcher's Accelerare was a standout. Then I noted that Accelerare had just beaten Taketothestreets. Hmmm, my opinion of one of these must be off - if Taketothestreets is vulnerable then that would make Accelerare a vulnerable favorite. So I looked at the latter's past performances. Accelerare had been second prior to his last out win to a horse named Moreno. That colt had come right back to win the Gr 2 Dwyer and then run second in back-to-back graded events - just missing in the Travers and then clearly second best in the Pennsylvania Derby. To me that makes Accelerare a strong runner, so by default that makes Taketothestreets a much stronger pick. So I backed up to the fourth and rewrote the analysis to put Taketothestreets on top.....you see how that worked out.

Back to the live action after Pazolini wins at nearly $7 - I would have cashed for over $30 - the 5th was my "BEST" of the day with Tea's Two Step. Trainer Saffie Joseph, WHO?, was a Gulfstream 40% Club member with a single angle - class droppers. This situation had occured only seven times over the last two winters and he'd won four of them and second in two others - that's a 57% WIN average! Got one of the worst rides as Joel Rosario did not get him away cleanly, then when among horses in the second flight behind a trio of front runners he took him all the way to the back of the field. He made a late run and went by everyone, but the winner. WOW. That would have been another $60 - good pick, bad racing luck. Then came the seventh with Accelerare. You have to figure, if Taketothestreets was a vulnerable favorite, that Accelerare would perform similarly.....he was, finishing 6th at 6/5, as the winner was 30/1 and the second place runner was 18/1. The day continued it's doward spiral when in the 8th it was another Maiden Special for sophomores. As I began to look through the past performances I stopped on #5 - Size. Bill Mott is not one to win with debut runners, and the works usually reflect that they aren't working swiftly. But this gal looked live. Hmmmm, might be a nice price if there isn't a Pletcher runner. Then I got down to #12 Hanalei Hailey. She had debuted with a trouble line and the winner had come right back to surprise as second best in a listed stakes last Sunday. So I dismissed Size and relegated her to my second pick and put Pletcher on top....see my analysis. Size was up in the final strides as Hanalei Hailey faded to the back of the pack - and look at the price Size paid! Even a $5 investment would have returned $75. Two bad decisions probably cost me over $100 and a profit on the day; toss in another $60 for bad racing luck - and then the topper to the day was in the 10th where I did not win because the race was declared a "No Contest" due to a fallen jockey impacting the running of the race. The only good news to the day was that I still made a profit of more than $50 for the weekend, and barely in the black for the week.