Day 68

March 14

Yet another day in the continued procession of my horses not running to their form....sigh.....In the third we were going a mile on the turf and Heaven Help Me was my pick. Sent off at a fair 5/2, she set a reasonable pace, and was easily on the lead - spurted clear at the top of the lane, nailed inside the final 100 yards to be second. But I bounced right back in the 4th. This could easily have been a stakes race with all five of them former stakes winners. But the key here was all five were also "off form." So the key would be to predict which would produce something close to his best form. I knew the crowd would settle on Apriority, who was the track record holder at this distance - but that was three years ago; since then he'd only won one time, and that was three back in a spot like this. He had run the best, last-race figure as well, but he seemed untrustworthy to me and I noted that ever big effort was followed by a bounce. The likely pace setter, which would be dangerous if loose was Cajun Breeze....but he had a 5-for-125 rider for an 0-for-13 trainer. Seemed unlikely to hold on. So, I landed on Action Andy who two years ago had been a sharp stakes winner. But his two runs this season were better than they looked. He was wide in his 2014 debut in a very fast paced affair that didn't give him a chance; in his last, the Super Stakes he faced a very talented winner and ran deceptively well to be third while well clear of the rest of the field. I projected him to stalk Cajun Breeze and blow by in the stretch, and all he had to do was hold on over the out-of-form closers, like Apriority. The gates opened and the race went EXACTLY as I saw it.....the only thing I did not forsee was that Action Andy was under a hand ride the entire time and won under wraps!

Like so many of the previous days, it was only the second race and the payoff of nearly $30 put me in the black to start the day.  But Street Trick in the 5th was a disappointing 5th; then Best Behavior who looked much the best on paper was a fading 3rd at 6/5 and Aunt Ruby's Kitten showed little when sent off at 8/5 and finishing a beaten fifth.  And so it's another day of showing red ink at the bottom of the ledger.