Day 65

FOUR WINS!

No Profit......Again

I knew when I handicapped the Sunday card that Javier Castellano was going to have a HUGE day today and even mentioned on my Saturday recap video that he and Todd Pletcher would be winning multiple races today.  Now I am realistic enough to know that I was not going to win with all nine of my selections or that Castellano-Pletcher would win with every one of their entries.  But, if you had asked me before the first race which one I was certain they would win I would have said the feature, and bet that way....only to have THAT one disappoint and cost me the bottom line.  The day started with a big win in the opener.  Courtney Ryan had won seven of her last ten and three in a row.  The only issue was that she likes to be on the front end and would probably have company.  But, as I noted in my analysis, she has shown the ability to track the leaders and win....and that is exactly what jockey Joe Rocco did.  She drew off comfortably coming out of the turn and was going away under wraps! 

She was 2/1 in the program but was bet down to 3/5, so I cashed for a little more than fifteen dollars.  In the second I backed off the bet to the minimum and put Todd Pletcher's Kingston Jamaica on top in a mile and a half marathon.  He was right there after a mile, but faded at 7/2.  In the third I doubled the bet on My Cousin Fay.  It wasn't so much that she towered over these in ability, nor that Castellano was riding for trainer Peter Walder first off the claim.  What led me to her was that her rivals today were awful!  What ability she had just dwarfed her rivals and man it showed as she hit the top of the lane.  She drew off by eight widening lengths without ever being asked!  WHOOO HOOOO, win number 2! 

She had been 5/1 in the program, but was bet all the way down to even money.  Collected an even $20 here.  In the fifth I had a good opportunity to seal a winning day when Console went first off the claim for Michael Maker who put Castellano up.  Console had run in seven consecutive turf sprits and today Maker stretched him out to a mile.  So I knew he'd be on the lead and fully expected Castellano to ration her speed.  Well, half right....she was a juicy 4/1 with my double investment and went right to the front.  When the half mile split went up in a wicked :45 and change I knew he was going to be cooked in deep stretch.  A lot of credit goes to him hanging in there to be a close third while tiring noticeably.  In the sixth I had Castellano who was taking a rare mount for Team Calabrese.  Reflected Cat was 6/1 going a flat mile.  Rated off the pace to the turn and was a little wide, but when asked to run, nothing.....sixth.  Next was the BEST of the day in the featured Any Limit Stakes.  When I first noted that graded stakes winner Sweet Whiskey was entered here for Pletcher and Castellano my initial reaction was what is she doing in a $75K race after competing in three straight graded stakes, winning the last, the Grade 3 Old Hat here.  But the more I thought about it, I recalled last winter when graded sprint winner Kauai Katie won two graded stakes early in the meet and wasn't seen again after Pletcher noted publicly that there weren't any more sprint stakes for three-year-old fillies.  So with this being the first running of the Any Time, I figured that this race was created to give Sweet Whiskey a spot to run in.  It certainly looked that way as you compared the rivals.  Sweet Whiskey had a debut maiden win, two graded losses and a graded win.  The rest of the field was made up on maiden winners, and one who'd won an allowance race from well off the pace.  Whiskey's last two speed figure bested all the career tops of the field with the exception of two - a last out maiden winner (unlikely to repeat in her first start vs. winners) and the allowance winner who scored as a deep closer at 17/1.....what are the chances that a closer repeats that kind of effort against stakes company over the always-speed-favoring Gulfstream trip.  And having seen Sweet Whiskey rate off the pace from the inside draw in the Old Hat I had no concerns over today's seven furlong distance.  NONE of this played out as I thought.  She broke on top and instead of letting someone else go on with the lead, Castellano put her on the lead.  I was ok with that if she's setting a moderate pace, but when the half was :45 and change AND she was being pressured I knew she wouldn't last.  She put her pace rival away turning for home and I was hopeful she'd open up on class, but she had no response to not one but TWO closers.....third.  Sigh.......  In the ninth I rebounded with My Miss Sophia.  She had debuted with a best-of-the-rest second and a field best 85 speed figure for Pletcher.  The only concern for me was the stretch to a mile today.  But the Gulfstream 40% Club angles of second start of the meet (49%) and stretching out (42%) and dirt routes (40%) all confirmed my double investment.   She tracked a 50-1 longshot to the turn and then drew off by a widening ELEVEN LENGTHS merely being ridden out! 

She had been a fair 3/1 in the program, but was pounded down to 1/2 at post time.  A winner, but only $15 to collect.  In the tenth I went with another Pletcher-Castellano runner.  Riverboat Queen had debuted here last winter and was second by a neck after an awkward start, but came right back to score with authority.  She ran well in her first start, a listed stakes at Belmont, but then ran her two worst races at Monmouth.  She was a fast-closing fifth at the always tough Saratoga meet and off since.  I thought there was a good chance she just didn't like the Monmouth facility and with the return to the site of her two best races she'd run well for Pletcher.  She was 7th of 9 when they hit the turn, but accelerated into contention by the top of the lane, took over at the furlong marker and drew off as MUCH the best, my FOURTH winner on the day! 

She had been 5/2 in the program but was bet down to 9/5.  So I cashed for nearly $30.  I knew I the finale that Pletcher's Lusaka (6/1 in the program) was a chance to score.  And as I wrote in my analysis, even though on paper he did not seem a clear winner, I was NOT going to be one of the many handicappers who watched Pletcher  and Castellano top off a big day with a double-digit score and me not be aboard.  He'd not shown anything when I bet him in his 2014 debut last out, but the switch to Castellano gave me hope, as did the stat that Pletcher wins with 49% of his second-starters of the meet.  He did go off at 5/1 and he tracked the pace to the turn, moved up to challenge, and then.......faded to last :(  So for the day I scored with a big 44% of my picks, but like Saturday failed to show a profit.  Two factors led to this.....one, obviously was the loss by the BET of the Day.  But a more subtle cause was the way the runners were bet today.  My four winners WOULD have paid $165 if they had gone off at their program odds;  even a 20% reduction due to being bet down would have netted me over $125.....more than enough to profit for the day.  But they were bet down by OVER 50% and so I end up in the red for the day, the weekend, and the week.....while scoring with eighteen of my week's 59 picks.....over 30%.