Day 64

 

Tampa Bay Derby Day / Santa Anita Handicap Day

Gulfstream Park Handicap Day

It was a big day of racing all over the country - so many big races it made the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap look much less important than it was.  The day started very slowly for two reasons.....first, In two of my first three selections my horse had scratched; so from 12:25 until 2:00 pm I had only three races where I had selections.  And second, from 12:25 until 2:30 I was 0-for-6 with three seconds.  NOT the way I had foreseen the day going!  In the opener at Tampa Sugadadeze was the only runner who had not been in a conditioned claimer like this.  He went off as the 9/5 favorite but was five wide into the stretch - second.  The third at Tampa I really liked Splendoronthegrass.  He was dropping from an opening claiming event into a bottom-level 2-lifetime event.  In addition he'd shown speed last time, so the "Early speed / Class drop" angle was in play!  He went off at a generous 3/1 and set sail on the front end.  As they turned for home and I expected the class edge to kick in, he stopped....tenth.  WOW.  The third at Calder was an upset pick.  My Uncle Cardie looked to be the lone speed.  He had a consistent pattern of showing good speed and stopping, but today he looked loose on the lead and could be long gone at a price I thought.  Half right.....he was a good 5/1, but when another horse broke as sharply as he did the apprentice rider decided it would be a good idea to stalk the pace today.  Sigh.... a far back fourth.  My first selection at Gulfstream was Tiz Liberty.  He looked like the sneaky class of the race.....the last time he'd run for this claiming price he was a dominant winner with a 91 speed figure.  The only other time was a photo finish second after breaking poorly.  The crowd wasn't fooled - 4/5 favorite....but he was pinned inside the entire trip, couldn't get through until late - 2nd.  One of the most amazing losses came next at Aqueduct where the 4/5 favorite On The Whistle was LONG gone in mid-stretch.  Even at the 16th pole when you could tell that one closer was making up ground quickly, you still KNEW he'd never get there in time - he did.  It reminded me of last weekend's finale at Aqueduct where I WON with a miracle finish......today I get a taste of my own medicine!  Booo.  And finally, at the Fair Grounds, Ship's Telegraph was bet down to 8/5 favoritism.  His last effort was really poor, but two pack his pace figures put him on a clear and easy lead and LONG GONE.  He didn't break sharply - though not poorly either - while another runner did break on top.  With the lack of speed in the race, which I thought played into MY horse's wheel house, he was long gone....I was a dismal 6th. 

But finally I hit my "winning stride" - and I did so in a big way!  The 4th at Gulfstream was on the turf and my top pick was Gibson's Bullet.  He was the lone colt dropping out of Maiden Special company, which in and of itself would have pointed him out;  but the winner of his last came back to beat winners in his next start and the runner-up came right back to break his maiden.  It was further a positive sign that his back-to-back 71 Beyers towered over anything his rivals had run AND that the other six horses had a total of only three turf starts.  When I got to the Gulfstream I saw that GP Handicapper Ron Nicoletti had made Gibson his "BEST" of the day.  I considered upping the investment from the triple value to "prime time" but in the end didn't.  He was TONS the best in the final furlong, an I considered the $4.80 payoff a very generous payout. 

I cashed for nearly $40 - and now that's what I'm talking about!  Minutes later I was looking up at the simulcast monitor from Tampa Bay for my "BEST BET" of the day there.  In spite of three graded stakes on the card, I thought Bobby's Kitten was the standout on the card.  He had been my top selection on the Travers undercard last August when I was at historic Saratoga Race Track, with my brother-in-law Jason.  That day, in his maiden win, he'd shown a new dimension by going right to the front and wiring the field.....and that day my pick in the subsequent race had scratched, so I had doubled my double investment to make him a "Prime Time" investment.  Easily best that day.  In his next start he won the Grade 3 Pilgrim and then was the favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - where he was run down by the top two European juveniles, including the winner Outstrip, who paid over $15.

Today marked his first start since that November Breeders' Cup run.  He was a Double Beyer advantage horse; he had a bullet work for his comeback; and best of all, he looked like the lone speed breaking from the rail.  My original plan was to make him a "prime time investment" but I upped the investment to $30 to win.  He cleared the field easily and as they moved down the backstretch you could tell that jockey Javier Castellano had "his feet in the dashboard" as it's said.  And as they moved through the turn, the second choice was being hard ridden to stay with striking distance while Castellano was motionless.  As they hit the stretch Castellano still had him under wraps and he won off handily.  MUCH the best!  H had been 1/9 trough most of the betting, and eventually floated up to 1/5 which I thought was a very fair price.  But as they moved through the lane his price was up to a nice 2/5. 

I cashed for over $40 :)  Bobby had no sooner crossed the finish line than they were loading into the gate at Calder.  The favorite was on the rail and bound to show speed, but he'd quit in his debut and with no drop in class I didn't see any reason that he'd take these guys wire to wire.  The actual betting favorite was a debut runner I did not like.  My pick was Gumara who was also debuting.  But his trainer was scoring at an amazing 57% with first time starters, and at 44% with today's jockey.  He was 9/5 at one point, then 2/1 at post time. And amazingly when they crossed the finish line he was an even better 5/2!  Cashed with my third in a row for another near $40!  I had a good handicapping pick in my next at Tampa in Etna's Anger at a huge 11/1.  Made a nice run, but only good enough for third.  Good pick, just no reward.  But I scored right back with my "Calder Best" with Longer Terms Doug.  He looked to be th LONE speed today for top local rider Edgar Zayas.  But with the outside draw and the seven furlong distance it was a big plus that I felt he could comfortably stalk the leaders and make a move into the lane.  The race could not have been scripted any better in my analysis.  He sat fourth through the first quarter mile, then slipped into second by himself as he dropped down inside.  Zayas looked confident that the leader was well within his sites - and as they began to spin out of the turn he said "GO!"  Doug was L-O-N-G gone! 

 

My prime time investment netted a $30 payoff :)  I missed on three straight - Gulfstream where my turf pick Rapscallion was simply outrun (5th); Igetsoenotional over the Fair Grounds turf saved all the ground and then had nothing for the stretch run (4th); and Todd Pletcher's Holy Wildcat tried to break his maiden fro off the pace but could not make up much ground on the top ones (4th).  Then it was time for the Grade 3 Hillsborough at Tampa, going nine furlongs over the turf.  I had seen Waterway Run make her North American debut on Feburary 7 at Gulstream going a mile. That day he broke slowly, trailed the field through a glacial pace (:51 and change), was fanned seven wide (at least) into the stretch and STILL only lost on a head bob.  Here she was today stretching out, and moving into graded company.  With any kind of trip I thought she had an excellent chance to score here, so I made her a "prime time" bet.  Apparently many handicappers though so as well as she left the gate at 7/2.  Today she was right behind the leaders saving all the ground on the rail under Jose Lezcano.  Through the turn she was behind a wall of four horses crying out to run, but he had no where to take her.  But as they came out of the turn the rail opened and he accelerated through to the lead.  The local winner of the prep for the race was in full flight for her and drew up within a half length, but at the 16th pole she seemed to break open again and was nearly a length clear.  But then the other mare accelerated and it was a head bobbing finish.  One bob before, one bob after and I cash for $80 and have a winning day.  But on the wire, well, here, you look for yourself.....

SO close, so very, very close.  I didn't know at the time that this would cost me my profit, but I was so right in making her my pick.  Sigh...... No time to cry over spilled milk as they were in the gate at Santa Anita for my first selection there.  Ferocious looked to be sitting in a perfect spot right behind the leaders - on paper - with a good finishing kick.  Instead he was pressing while three deep the entire way through a wicked :44 and change pace call.  But inside the final 16th as four of them were across the track he was the one who was able to reach down and score.  I missed at Calder when Discreet Ed pressed the pace at 4/1 odds but gave way on the turn.  Back to "my seat" in Section 101 to watch the 8th at Gulfstream.  It was a MSW for three-year-olds on the turf going nine furlongs.  My pick was Todd Pletcher's Picozza.  In his debut he'd come from well off the pace and hit the board.  Then in his last he tried to wire the field.  Breaking from post nine I thought John Velazquez would have him stalking the pace and finish best of all.  Instead he gunned Pecozza right to the front!  He dueled on the inside of a longshot leader and as they came out of the turn I thought he would probably be out of gas.......how wrong was I?  He accelerated and blew the doors off the field! 

Wish I'd bet more, but still I cashed my second Gulfstream ticket!  Disappointed at the Fair Grounds when Strong Willed Lady was the 5/2 choice and showed nothing (8th) and at Tampa where I played "track psychology" by taking the "other Chad Brown" horse in Kitten Kaboodle.  I had had her in her win in the Grade 3 Jessamine and today she had the rail and Javier Castellano.  The favorite was his other filly in post 12, and I thought this was a perfect day for playing the longer price of an uncoupled entry.  Nope, only 7th while the favorite blew by in the stretch.  Then I changed my bet in the Grade 2 San Felipe, the local prep for the Santa Anita Derby to Shoolofhardknocks based on Jeff Seigal's analysis.  My original pick was second, but he was never going to win at 2/1.  And at least I got a bit of a thrill as my new pick accelerated on the turn at 9/2, but flattened out.  The winner, California Chrome had won two straight in state-bred stakes and was sent off as the 7/5 choice.  He was amazing.....after setting a :45 half mile pace he drew off to win easily.  For the ump-tenth time I thought about Game on Dude in the Big 'Cap later wonder if speed could hold today?  More on that woeful tale later :(  

Now it was time for the 9th and featured Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap.  As I'd told Kim on our walk this morning, my pick here was one of several that I felt strongly enough that they'd win, but there were plenty of reasons that afterwards if they did not I couldn't argue with anyone that told me it was a bad pick.  Palace Malice had been a favorite three-year-old on the Louisiana Triple Crown trail, but he'd let me down.  I had him again I the Bluegrass and again he let me down after drawing clear in the stretch.  But he'd fired big time to win the Grade 1 Belmont and then again to be much the best in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy.  I did not like him for the Travers and he didn't win, but to be fair he had a troubled trip.  He'd not been out since then and today's race was a 1-turn mile - too short for him?  But I thought that he was simply the class of the field and with Todd Pletcher at the controls, I thought he'd come back running.  I did not like either of the other top two betting choices, Itsmyluckyday - who'd won the Grade 3 Holy Bull here last winter then was second in the Florida Derby and the Preakness.  Nor did I like Falling Sky who had surprised the Gulfstream Sprint three weeks ago.  But as they hit the top of the stretch it was those three across the track.  Palace Malice had been wide the whole way and had every excuse not to preserve, but he surged to the lead!  No longer had he done so than the off-pace runners came to him and passed him - both Uncaptured and Golden Ticket.  Now after a clear run on the outside pressing the pace, Palace Malice would have to rally up the rail behind two closers with all the momentum.  But I could tell he was not done and he re-broke for Johnny Velazquez and surged to the wire in front in one of the most courageous efforts I've seen live, ever.  WHOOOO HOOOOO, my third winner at Gulfstream! 

He had gone off the betting favorite and I'd only made a double investment, but it's always good to win the feature at Gulfstream.....well, it's always good to be right, period!  Three more misses - Aqueduct a price play never fired and in the Tampa Bay Derby I didn't have a strong opinion and went with a minimum bet on a logical longshot.  I missed with my BEST at the Fair Grounds when Delaunay was a SEVEN time open stakes winner, including a Grade 2 winner, taking on a field of runners without a single open stakes win!  There was a former claimer who'd rattled off four in a row on the front end drawn on the rail.  I fully expected that one to gun to the front and Delauney to be close to him, then exert his class turning for home and blow by.  Never got to him ..... long gone.  Sigh......

But I was re-energized with a win in the China Doll Stakes for three-year-old fillies at Santa Anita going a mile on the turf.  I had seen Diversy Harbor in her maiden debut - she was going 6 1/2 furlongs down the Santa Anita hillside course.  I liked her because trainer Tom Proctor has a long history with newly un-retired jockey Gary Stevens and always does very well with horses from owners Glen Hill Farms.  Well, as they crossed the main track into the stretch she was TENTH, buried on the rail behind an army of runners.  Stevens slid her to the outside for clear run and she INHALED the field in one of the most breath-taking runs I've seen since Goldikova in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Mile.  So today, stretching out to two turns didn't seem like a big deal to me.  I thought that she, like Waterway Run, had an excellent chance to score at a price.  The pace was quick, but the favorite was clear at the furlong pole and Diversey Harbor was no where to be seen in the back.....but I knew she was coming.  She accelerated to the front in the shadow of the wire to WIN! 

As a side note.....normally I am a quiet observer at the races, especially in front of the TV monitors.  But every once in a while some other fan gets under my skin for what ever reason and I become a loud, rabid, vocal fan :)  Well, they had just broken out of the gate and this guy behind me is not only loud and obnoxious about his "cheering" but he's using every swear word in the dictionary to describe his horse and jockey in his "cheering."  So as they turned for home I opened up and thoroughly enjoyed cheering and WINNING! :)))))  Another disappointment in the next at Gulfstream.  Just as I thought Todd Pletcher would have Palace Malice ready off the layoff, I was even more sure he'd have multiple graded stakes winner Unlimited Budget ready off the bench in her 2014 debut - in allowance company in particular.  She went off at 3/5 and was never a threat, fourth.  I made my last sequence of bets, filmed my most recent winners, and headed into the box seats on the finish line to watch my final selection at Gulfstream.  It was a maiden claiming event, on the turf.  Golden Rifle did NOT look to have a lot of talent, but she had a lot going for her.....She was lightly raced and all but two others were proven losers.  Those other two were badly beaten recently and unlike 'Rifle, they were not dropping in class.  Last time she was the tepid 3/1 favorite coming off a layoff for new connections and she was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths.  She was - on paper - tons better than her rivals today AND dropping in class.  She stalked the leader the length of the backstretch and through the turn, and I knew...I KNEW it wasn't a question of if she'd win, it was going to be by how much.  When given her cue she accelerated and won by half the length of the stretch! 

My FOURTH win at Gulfstream....no matter what happens the rest of any day at the races, if you can pick four winners on one card at Gulfstream Park!  I knew that with the loss by Waterway Run, Delauney, and Unlimited Budget....and NONE of my horses paying anything that I was unlikely to be a winner on the day.  But I did want to get my 30%+ winners.  As I walked to the car I knew I need to win at least one to be close - to would get me to 30% and three would be even better and make for a more "reasonable" loss on the day....and maybe, just maybe if Mucho Macho Man went off at a price in the Big 'Cap and I won with four of the six I might be able to eek out a profit.  When I got home I watched the replays and scored with my first of them, the finale at Tampa.....and at a price when Royal Hill was 4/1 and I had a near-$30 winning ticket. 

Missed at the Fair Grounds at 2/1....grrrr.  But then it was time for the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita.  I thought Winning Prize would be a short priced favorite and a likely winner.  But as I watched the replay his odds were an amazing 7/2!  I didn't think he'd be on the lead, but would be pressing the lead.  But that's why I am NOT the jockey.  Right to the front, dueled opened up, was challenged but fought on to the wire to score over a Gulfstream shipper.  The payoff was a NICE $9.60 meaning I got back another near-$50 and now the day was already a "reasonbable" loss. 

In the Big 'Cap I had gone back and forth about Game On Dude.  He's been my pick in every big race out west for several years and I have not hesitated to bet $50, $75, or even $100 on him at miniscule odds.  I KNEW he'd be an unbelievable price today but his last three - all of which I had bet him - he'd not only lost, but two of the three, especially the last, he did not seem himself.  Then I read and heard trainer Bob Baffert's pre-race comments.  Not the most ringing endorsement I thought.  I told Kim that I wanted to bet Game on Dude, but that Mucho Macho Man had run exceptional every time he'd been to Santa Anita, and he looked the part.  If Game On Dude was not on his "A" game the 'Man would be tons the best.  Sigh.....Game on Dude WAS himself, and wired the field and paid an ultra-amazing $13.20.  Even a $10 bet would have got back $66 and I'd been even; a mere $20 gamble and I'm a big winner.  But I went against my gut.  Sigh.....still, inspite of it all, a win by Waterway Run would have made me a winner on the day. 

But on the day I was 11-for-34, a solid 32%, and it had been a great day at the races!