Day 59

Mixed Reviews On A Fun Day At The Races

Today was one of those days which was truly all about which is the overriding feeling - how much I enjoy being at the races & winning my "normal" solid 30% vs. having a profitable day at the track.  I won with 32% of my selections......scored with not one but TWO BEST bets on the Aqueduct card; and my BET of the DAY.  But, on the flip side, when I got to Gulfstream I knew I'd have to wait for the start of racing because I had a pick in the Aqueduct opener at 12:25 but Gulfstream wasn't starting until 1:05 starting today.  So as I was waiting in between races I checked the scratches only to find that not one, not two, not three, but FOUR of my selections had scratched out on the Gulfstream card.  Toss in the fact that I did not handicap the Santa Anita track due to their monsoon weather and so it was bound to be a lot of waiting around. 

That, in and of itself, probably would not have been bothersome, but (and you can see the highlights of this on the recap video), in four of the five seconds I had on the day I SHOULD have been the winner.  The first two were typical of the way my bottom line came out in the red.  In the 3rd at the Fair Grounds I had the LONE SPEED in Michevious Mama.  She set an absurdly slow 1:16 pace for three quarters and was multiple lengths in front heading into the turn.  Caught in the final 100 yards at a big 7/2 - that alone would have returned enough to make a profit on the day.  But in the very next race at Calder Macho Bull rallied from WAY back while at least ten wide into the lane and missed by a nose......couldn't win alone on the front with the price horse, couldn't win closing from the back with the favorite.  But enough with the negatives, here's the good time stories....... After running third and fourth in the first two I came back with four races, all with added investments.  In the third at Aqueduct I made Mean Season my "Best of the Day" in New York.  She was unbeaten in two straight - both daylight wins under wraps, and the latest had earned a huge 105 Beyer.  Add in she was clearly the lone speed and it's easy to see why she was 1-9.  And she ran like a 1-9 shot, never taking a deep breath!  The only bad news was on the jog out her jockey got off and there was obviously something amiss with her.  She looked ok standing there, but that filly has some talent. 

I missed in the third at Tampa before making a nice score at Calder.  In their second it was a Maiden Special sprint and I did NOT like the favorite who had shown early speed and then given it up.  Had he been dropping in class, maybe.  But to come back at the same level I saw no reason he'd suddenly have more stamina.  Then I noted that Gukumatz was a first time starter for a trainer who was winning an amazing 50% with his first time starters at a HUGE $7.57 ROI (albeit with limited starters); and the rider was winning at 43% for the barn.  The race ran just as I pictured it with the favorite setting the pace with Gukumatz right on his hip.  The only thing I did not forsee was that my pick would run right by the favorite without any resistance from that one.  The nice $6.40 payoff led to over $30 in payoff!  WHOOO HOOO! 

The fourth at Aqueduct was the first of three graded stakes.  It was the Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap.  Strapping Groom, on paper, was tons the best.  But his lone loss recently was when he also looked much the best and I had bet him.  I could not bet against him, so I doubled the bet hoping that in spite of coming off a quarter crack issue, he'd run to his numbers.  He stalked the dueling leaders to the far turn and it looked like the perfect set up.  But as they turned for home he was still three or more lengths back and seemed to be spinning his wheels.  But as they hit the sixteenth pole he seemed to get an inspiration and began eating up ground.  Top rider Irad Ortiz knew he had the leader measured and never went to the stick as he cruised by in the final strides!  NICE! 

To top off the run of winners was the third at Gulfstream.  Anchor Down had won at first asking earlier in the meet for Todd Pletcher - no surprise there.  BUT....he'd done so earning a 90 Beyer in spite of hitting the gate to start his racing career!  Today he stalked the leader into the turn, poised to take over and sprint clear to the wire.  But as they came out of the turn and he poked his head in front, another rival split horses and took the lead!  I was concerned that after one pace duel he would come up empty trying to fight off another challenge, especially going the added sixteenth of this 6 1/2 furlong distance.  But he was plenty best and drew off through the final furlong.  I had planned to double the bet, but when he was so well bet I upped it to a triple investment!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Now I am having a great day with four wins in my first seven bets - winning all the added investments! 

But then the foreshadowing of the day started.....I was third as the 6/5 favorite in New York; then I took a clear lead into the stretch in a turf sprint at the Fair Grounds...caught to be second.  Sat the perfect trip on the Tampa turf and outfinished, second again.  Off for over an hour only to come back with the aforementioned Michevious Mama and Macho Bull dual second place runs.  WOW.  But I "eased the suffering" with my two biggest bets of the day next. 

The eighth at Aqueduct was the second of their graded stakes, the Grade 2 Top Flight.  The race looked to come down to the up-and-coming front-runner, Teen Pauline for Todd Pletcher and the multiple graded stakes winning Summer Applause who came from off the pace.  In this race last year Summer Applause was making her second start off a layoff and was my pick as a prime time bet.....and she scored as much the class of the field.  I could see the same thing happening today, but last year she had a race under her belt.  Today she was FIRST start off a layoff.  And given no pace pressure I thought Teen Pauline had a very good chance to go wire-to-wire at a better price.  About fifteen minutes before post time I looked at the odds and Teen Pauline was 1-9!  What the heck?  Then I noted there was a scratch out of the race, the number 4......looked it up, Summer Applause!  Well now it's a slam dunk.  So I doubled my triple investment to a full $30 to win.  I walked to one of my favorite tellers and told her briefly about the back-to-back seconds, she shook her head and then I said "Aqueduct, $30 to win on the 2, and Fair Grounds, $50 to win on the 6!"  She looked at me with surprise and said, "You come back with a vengeance!"  I walked back over to the monitors and Teen Pauline had drifted "up" to 1/5, which was a fair price.  And I looked over at the Fair Grounds monitor.....my pick, the #6 was 36-1.  Trust me, I wish I had $50 to win on a 30-1 horse, but the #5 was 1-9, THAT was my BET of the DAY, Sunbean in the Star Guitar Stakes.  I quickly went back and exchanged the ticket!  Whew!  Then went into the gate at New York and as the starter let them go Teen Pauline went to her knees and was quickly fourth......seriously?  Quickly recovering she burst through to take command into the first turn.  But did the burst of early energy cost her, especially going today's extended nine furlongs.  The pace fractions came up on the screen....:25 and change for the quarter and :49 and change for the half.  Oh my, she is WALKING on the front end, I am home free!  Sure enough she coasted to the wire!  WHOOO HOOOO, two best bets in New York, two WINS! 

Minutes later they were headed to the gate for the Star Guitar.  The Fair Grounds feature was named for recently retired Star Guitar who was virtually unbeatable in state-bred stakes.  I must have cashed at least a dozen tickets on him, he was a winning machine.  And now here's Sunbean - over his last seven state-bred races, he had won seven in a row!  And the best part.....he has the same owners as Star Guitar!  How fortunate are they?  He stalked the two leaders into the turn.  Moved three wide without being asked.  Slid to the front by about a half length as they moved through the stretch, still without being asked.  The late runners started to cut into the lead and the rider asked for more.  And that my friend was that.  Sunbean opened up effortlessly and was long gone, finishing under wraps!  Now we're back on the winning path, or so I thought. 

At Tampa Spring to the Sky was the mild 2/1 favorite in their Turf Dash Stakes....pressed to the stretch, ready to pounce - no finish, fourth.  Hevvaarat was the 3/2 favorite in a Gulfstream maiden event.  Stalked the leaders to the turn and stopped - tenth.  In the third of the New York graded events it was the Gotham, their prep for their final step towards the Kentucky Derby, the Grade 1 Wood.  In this Gotham Stakes, the top two photo-finish runners of the Grade 3 Withers were back.  And while one was unbeaten and the other was a Pletcher, I didn't care for either and went with a Maryland shipper at 6/1.  The two favorites put on a real show with a three-way stretch duel and a three-way photo finish with the unbeaten colt winning again.  Still not a believer.  Next up a Gulfstream turf.  I really liked Lochte, who had won three of four including an $80 upset of the Grade 1 GP Turf Classic last out, but he was on the AE list and didn't get in.  I went with my main body pick, War Dancer who was the 5/2 tepid favorite.  Tracked the pace and had nothing for the stretch run and was 6th.  The finale at Aqueduct was my next, and final win.  It was a bottom level claimer, without any standouts.  But I thought that Real Estate had an upset chance.  He was a ten-year-old first off the claim for David Jacobson.  First, he's a top claiming trainer; second, you don't claim a 10yo unless you think they can still run.  And he was a nice 9/2 as they left the gate.  He made a middle move to be fifth into the stretch but seemed to be running evenly on the inside behind three leaders, blocked on the rail.  Then with only a sixteenth to go, clearly not enough time to get up to win he seemed to get a new lease on life and slid outside.  His acceleration through the final one hundred yards was remarkable and he scored!  The $11.80 payoff led to my final collection on the day, a nice near $30 payoff. 

My top pick in the featured Grade 2 Swale Stakes, Todd Pletcher's Havana, scratched from the race.  So it was officially a "pass" for me.  I took my own money and made a "side bet" on unbeaten No Nay Never who was the 1/2 favorite.  He cruised to the lead in mid-stretch but was nailed by a $30 winner at the sixteenth pole.  In the Grade 3 Palm Beach it was my "Best of the Day" at Gulfstream.  I had not been a fan of Storming Inti in either of his previous starts, but today he looked to be the lone speed on the rail and got Javier Castellano for trainer Chad Brown today.  I saw this race as going much the same way as the Teen Pauline race in the Grade 2 Top Flight.  My only concern was letting last-out maiden winner for Todd Pletcher, Gala Award go off at a price.  But I saw an interview with Pletcher on HRTV on Friday and he said he thought he was better on the dirt, but wanted to give him one more shot on turf because he seemed to like it.  Storming Inti went right to the front and was under more pressure than I thought he'd be, but still he spurted clear into the lane.....but then here came the #9 flying in the final strides to win.  Who was that?  You guessed it, Pletcher's Gala Award who paid $18.00.  Sigh......how many times do I have to say "don't guess when Pletcher is live and when he's not."  WOW.  Lost the 8th at the Fair Grounds when top jockey Rosie Napravnik moved Gold Megalilah to a clear lead in mid stretch, only to be caught, second, again.  And in my "get even" race, the finale at Gulfstream, legitimate longshot Gentlemans Code made a mild move at 7/1, but settled for fourth.

Can't argue with 32% wins and THREE BEST Bets.  And I have to be happy with my numbers through three months at the always tough Gulfstream meet, with a solid 34%!