Day 74

Inside Information Day

Thirteen WINS!

 

The original plan for today was to head out to Gulfstream for a full day of racing and simulcasting selections.  But then the weather forecast came out indicating a 60% chance of thunderstorms, and when I looked at the future-cast radar it showed a big thunderstorm cell moving over Gulfstream between 1 and 2 pm and another one hitting around 3 pm and lasting for more than an hour.  As I checked that online it started to pour here.  Add in that my #1 ranked Florida Gators were playing at 12:25 pm in the 3rd round of the NCAA March Madness Tournament and I made the decision to stay home and play online while I watched basketball.  I was afraid that if I went there would be a lot of changes not only here, but at other tracks and I'd end up sitting around a lot as well.  Well, as it turned out it never did rain at Gulfstream....they were cloudy some of the day, and mostly sunny most of the day.  And from my original list of 33 selections there were only two scratches!  And it was a big 42% winning day for me! 

The winning started right away with the first race on my sheet, the opener at Tampa where I thought King Rock looked much the best as the favorite.  He'd won three of his last four, all here with the leading rider on board for all three wins.  In fact the only race he did not ride in that stretch was the loss.  King Rock was much the best and I cashed for a quick $15.  It was over an hour before my next race, the second at Gulfstream.  Exclusive Ute dropped from $65K to $35K in his last and was down to the bottom today.  But he was only second best at 2/1.  Right back into the winner's circle with Bings Express at Calder where he too looked like a much-the-best favorite.  Four of his last five Beyers towered over his rivals today and he ran to those numbers going virtually wire-to-wire.  Cashed for nearly $15 again.  Another miss at Gulfstream when Lovely was sent off at even money sprinting five furlongs on the turf.  But he broke slowly and was swung wide late to get third.  The next race on my sheet was my "BEST" in New York.  Tiger Tank was second in his last start in a Maiden Special at Gulfstream.  The winner that day, Social Inclusion ran a 103 Beyer and came right back in allowance company to run a 111, breaking the track record for the distance and defeating Kentucky Derby favorite, graded stakes winning Honor Code.  Social Inclusion is slated to start next out in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.  Everyone was on board and Tiger Tank left the gate at 1/5, which I thought was a fair price.  Stalked the leader to the turn and then took off, long gone for my third win on the day.  Missed at the Fair Grounds when I dueled to the stretch then faded to 4th and then was second at Calder after trailing by SIXTEEN lengths down the backstretch.....close, but not close enough.  But then it was back-to-back-to-back WINS!  Returned to New York where Bay of Plenty was easily best going wire to wire under wraps - cashed or nearly $30; Tampa was next.  I'd bet Press Baron in his last and he disappointed, but today he made no mistakes at 4/5 and I scored for nearly $20 more.  Topped the "trifecta" when Master's Degree dueled to mid-stretch and edged clear in a Fair Grounds maiden sprint.  A string of six misses dulled the "thrill of victory" - including a win by the Gators who pulled clear late to draw off by fifteen points.  But around 4 pm I five out of seven, including my first stakes score.

At the Fair Grounds, Bump Bump rallied from just off the pace when sprinting on the turf.  Trainer Tom Amos was 50% with maiden specials dropping in for a tag and 36% with his turn back runners.  Paid a healthy $8.40 leading to a $20 payout.  Right back with my "best" at Calder with Unseen Visitor.  Trainer Marty Wolfson has been stabled at Calder for years, but their meager winter program has led him to run nearly all his horses at Gulfstream.  But the three who had run here had ALL WON!  add in that jockey Edgar Zayas was scoring at a big 53% for Wolfson and I thought the post-time odds of 6/5 were a gift.  EASILY!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Cashed for over $30.  The second at Santa Anita was a turf sprint down the hillside - love those races!  The DRF's Brad Free had made La Sorella his "Best" of the day.  He wrote in his analysis that this particular trainer was winning 44% with his favorites sprinting down the hill.  Chalk up another as La Sorella wired the field under Mike Smith without ever taking a deep breath!  ANOTHER $30 plus!  After a close second at Aqueduct I got my lone winner of the day at Gulfstream when top rider Javier Castellano put Chad Brown's Madaket Millie on the lead and she never looked back. 

The only surprise.....she paid $10.20!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  The fifth win in the sequence was in Aqueduct's feature, the Grade 3 Excelsior.  Long River was the obvious choice having won back to back stakes with top figures.  Had a sharp work for a 42% jockey-trainer team as well.  Long River made his move on the turn, and dueled with the leader to deep stretch.....but couldn't get by!  NO WORRIES!  The winner was his entry-mate!  Ha ha ha!  Whoop whoop.....winning without picking the winner! 

Two stakes disappointments followed - Vagabond Shoes was the favorite in Santa Anita's Grade 2 San Luis Rey and was making his move down the backstretch when he broke down.  Sad :(  Then in Gulfstream's featured Grade 2 Inside Information trainer Marty Wolfson entered three.  One figured to be late running to get a piece, but not the win; the other two were a toss-up.  Heart Stealer had won the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl but Centrique was a perfect 3-for-3 over the course and was 4/2-0-1 at today's seven furlong distance.  DRF's Mike Beer liked Heart Stealer as she would be the best price of the three, but for me it was significant that top jockey Javier Castellano had ridden both of these fillies in their last win here and he went with Centrique.  Good enough for me.....sure enough she was the 7/5 favorite, but Heart Stealer won the race and paid double-digits....sigh.  No time to cry over spilled milk as my "Best" of the day in New Orleans was up next in their featured Red Camellia Stakes.  I Dazzle was breaking from post ten but had a rallying style so I wasn't worried.  She moved on the turn, collared the leader as heads turned for home and then literally "dazzled" to score as MUCH the best! 

And the final win of the day came with my "BEST" of the day at Santa Anita in their co-feature, the Pasadena Stakes for 3-year-olds going a mile on the turf.  Jockey Gary Stevens for trainer Tom Proctor for Glen Hills Farms....duh!  And add in that this colt was a perfect 2-for-2 at this distance, over this course with one of those being a stakes win!  Stevens had him perfectly placed tracking the leaders and began moving entering the turn, but was stopped when he clipped heels and nearly went down.  But the Hall of Fame jockey got him back in rhythm and he moved three wide to the front and looked to be a winner drawing off when a closer with all the momentum came flying.....oh, so close......but on the wire Enterprising had his nose down first!  The 7/5 odds led t nearly $50 on my last winning ticket!

Days 72 - 73

March 20 - 21

The last two days of the week saw me get inconsistent results. On Thursday I had two of four horses outrun early taking them out of any real chance of scoring, and two horses set the pace under what looked like comfortable fractions, only to give way late. The lone winner on the day was a remarkable score in the 6th. Ulanbator was away slowly in a one turn mile Maiden Special for sophomores. As he tried to come up the inside under "I always find trouble" Julian Leparoux where he was too close to the front runners, clipped heels and nearly went down. Not to be denied, he regained his footing and came up in between horses when in tight. Finally got free on the outside and seemed to have the 4/5 favorite measured, but could not get by until the final head bob (below left).

On Friday I scored twice in back-to-back races when my horses were TONS the best....but were no secret as either to the crowd as they both went off at 3/5. In the third Palatine Hill had set a absurdly fast pace the last time going 8 1/2 furlongs when fresh off a layoff. I thought Javier Castellano would sit just off Sir Edgar today and blow by on the turn.....the race went EXACTLY as I had envisioned it. The only surprise was when my pick came to the front runner he looked like a gargantuan monster - Palatine HIll is a HUGE horse! Romped home as TONS the best (middle) as my "Best" of the day.

Right back in the fourth when Take Time To Pray utilized the same kind of trip to score in a huge way. He might have been a vulnerable favorite coming off a career best speed figure when loose on an easy lead. But his previous race had also earned a solid figure and those two together were BOTH better than anything his rivals had ever run. Hard to look past Double Beyer horses. Easily best.

In the 8th I had a 12/1 horse who made a threatening move on the turn but flattened out behind my second choice who paid over $9 and probably SHOULD have been my top pick. Not the biggest of weekends coming up in terms of stakes or big horses running, but heading out for the first time in two weeks!

Day 71

A  G-R-E-A-T  Start To The Week!

What a wonderful way to start off the next-to-last week of the Championship meeting.  For the Wednesday card I had selected seven runners from the ten race card.  As a side note, it's interesting to me that every winter when I handicap Gulfstream I always seem to have multiple picks on a daily basis while the rest of the year I don't have nearly as many on any card at any other track.....not sure if it's because I WANT to play Gulfstream or if I truly have runners with an edge.  All I know is that I enjoy the racing at Gulfstream very much!  So the day started off with a Maiden Claimer in the third.  My pick was Sneaky Blowout.  He was a solid second in his debut at the tough Saratoga meeting for a $50K price tag.  He was claimed away by Michael Maker who had run him in Maiden Specials since.  His last was a failed turf experiment, so today's surface switch and a turn back to seven furlongs seemed to be the right move.  Add in that Maker has been a Gulfstream 40% Club member with an amazing 50% win rate with class droppers over the last two winters.  He was the 1/2 favorite and he dueled through the lane to JUST get up. 

Unfortunately I only had the minimum investment so my payout was a meager $7.50.  Right back in the fourth with a turf claiming event I made Kanagaro my top choice.  Three years ago in an allowance race that wrapped up the Florida Derby card I had put him on top.  He was narrowly beaten that day by a promising colt named Za Approval who has gone on to be a multiple stakes winner.  Last summer Kanagaro had won back-to-back events at this one mile distance, but over the synthetic track at Presque Isles.  So I knew he liked the distance and I felt he was a turf runner - based on my previous handicapping.  He had back to back bullet works so I thought he was ready to fire.  He was listed at a generous 3/1 in the program and the crowd let him go off at that same price.  He made his move on the far turn and then blew the race wide open by romping home by daylight!  WHOOO HOOO! 

The $8.40 payoff netted me over $20 in spite of the minimum investment.  I was going for the "trifecta" by putting Ooohs and Aaahs on top in the fifth.  This was a 2-lifetime sprint going seven furlongs on the main track and I thought this was one of "those races" where my pick was either MUCH the best or had gone so far off form he'd finish off the board.  He had scored in just his second career start and was a solid third against allowance company in his next.  But then he was vanned off in a failed stakes try.  He was sent off at 5/1 in allowance company but was well beaten over a sloppy surface.  So the question for me was the drop into a $20K 2L event a fire sale or a reasonable drop to get a confidence boosting win?  I went with the latter and doubled the event.  He was listed at 5/1 in the program and the crowd must have had many of the same concerns as I did as he left the gate at 3/1.  He stalked the pace to he turn, moved up the rail and then drew off under wraps by six or more widening lengths!  AWESOME!   My THIRD WIN IN A ROW! 

He too paid a generous $8.40 which meant I cashed for over $40!  Guaranteed to profit for the day now!  In the 7th I led from the moment the gates sprung open in a mile and a half maiden special event.  But she was run down late to be third.  In the eighth Molly Morgan was my "surprise package" of the day.  She was 12/1 in the program, but left the gate at 6/1.  I thought the race was ripe for an upsetter and she stalked the pace like I thought then made her move entering the stretch.....not good enough to get to the front, third.  But in the ninth I was in the winner's circle again.  Drunken Love had won three of his last five turf starts and was a NINE time winner at the distance.  He had enough speed to get to the front from post nine but I thought he could also stalk.  I knew he'd be the favorite, but I also was aware that he had no room for error.  No worries!  Broke sharply out of the gate, right to the front and took the field to the top of the lane in :21.4 - :43.3 with a couple of close-up pressers.  But then he spurted clear to win comfortably! 

The $5.20 payoff led to nearly $30 to me.  The final race of the card, and on my selection sheet was an optional claiming event going a flat mile on the turf.  Angel's South was the most likely winner of the day I thought.  She was dropping out of back-to-back stakes tries including a hear-breaking third in a three-way photo to behind multiple stakes winning Byrama in the Ten Palms last out.  She dueled to mid-stretch on the lead, then cleared from the field, an apparent winner......only to be caught on the wire.  Soooo close.  But for the day I'd hit with four of seven and made over $35 for the day!  WHOOOO HOOOO.

Day 70

March 16 - A Tale of Two Decisions Gone Wrong

After the great day on Saturday it was such a disappointment that Sunday turned out to be the third time in as many weeks that I went winless. It was a combination of bad racing luck, horses not running to their paper form, and most especially two decisions that went wrong. After losing with my "Upset of the Day" with my first selection in the 2nd (Lighthouse Sound who was 8/1 - not the best of trips) it was foreshadowing on the day when I lost the 4th, a Maiden Special event. When I scanned through the past performances I first noted that Taketothestreets was a likely vulnerable favorite at a short price, and I tabbed Pazolini to spring the upset. So my analysis was as it appears below, next to Pazolini's past performances. I continued through the card and then I got to the 7th race, a nw1x optional allowance event and I thought that Todd Pletcher's Accelerare was a standout. Then I noted that Accelerare had just beaten Taketothestreets. Hmmm, my opinion of one of these must be off - if Taketothestreets is vulnerable then that would make Accelerare a vulnerable favorite. So I looked at the latter's past performances. Accelerare had been second prior to his last out win to a horse named Moreno. That colt had come right back to win the Gr 2 Dwyer and then run second in back-to-back graded events - just missing in the Travers and then clearly second best in the Pennsylvania Derby. To me that makes Accelerare a strong runner, so by default that makes Taketothestreets a much stronger pick. So I backed up to the fourth and rewrote the analysis to put Taketothestreets on top.....you see how that worked out.

Back to the live action after Pazolini wins at nearly $7 - I would have cashed for over $30 - the 5th was my "BEST" of the day with Tea's Two Step. Trainer Saffie Joseph, WHO?, was a Gulfstream 40% Club member with a single angle - class droppers. This situation had occured only seven times over the last two winters and he'd won four of them and second in two others - that's a 57% WIN average! Got one of the worst rides as Joel Rosario did not get him away cleanly, then when among horses in the second flight behind a trio of front runners he took him all the way to the back of the field. He made a late run and went by everyone, but the winner. WOW. That would have been another $60 - good pick, bad racing luck. Then came the seventh with Accelerare. You have to figure, if Taketothestreets was a vulnerable favorite, that Accelerare would perform similarly.....he was, finishing 6th at 6/5, as the winner was 30/1 and the second place runner was 18/1. The day continued it's doward spiral when in the 8th it was another Maiden Special for sophomores. As I began to look through the past performances I stopped on #5 - Size. Bill Mott is not one to win with debut runners, and the works usually reflect that they aren't working swiftly. But this gal looked live. Hmmmm, might be a nice price if there isn't a Pletcher runner. Then I got down to #12 Hanalei Hailey. She had debuted with a trouble line and the winner had come right back to surprise as second best in a listed stakes last Sunday. So I dismissed Size and relegated her to my second pick and put Pletcher on top....see my analysis. Size was up in the final strides as Hanalei Hailey faded to the back of the pack - and look at the price Size paid! Even a $5 investment would have returned $75. Two bad decisions probably cost me over $100 and a profit on the day; toss in another $60 for bad racing luck - and then the topper to the day was in the 10th where I did not win because the race was declared a "No Contest" due to a fallen jockey impacting the running of the race. The only good news to the day was that I still made a profit of more than $50 for the weekend, and barely in the black for the week.

Day 69

What A  G - R - E - A - T   Day!

Finally - One of "THOSE" Days!

Profit = $139!

Finally, after multiple days of winning my fair share, but not making any money, I had a big day.  Ironically it came after changing plans to drive Kim up to Orlando for Lauren's bridal shower, so it meant no simulcast handicapping, and no visits to the track.  I handicapped the Saturday card on Thursday and of the eleven races I found eight where I thought I had an edge.  None of them inspired me to go "prime time" or even triple the investment, but all of them were worthy of a double investment.  I passed the opener but in the second I had an upset selection.  As I wrote in my analysis, "....he does not have outstanding credentials for the win spot here, but then, do any of them?  - but he has one very solid angle that makes him my top selection....today he goes first off the claim for trainer Michael Pino....." As I noted, Pino is a Gulfstream 40% Club member with a single angle....first off the claim.  Over the last two winters he has scored with a sharp 42% of those.  And at a generous 5/1 in the program I doubled up on him.  On With The Show broke sharply and dueled to the turn before forging to a short lead.  As they turned for home he was still under pressure and I would not have been surprised to see him fold, but instead he kept going and drew clear late to score by over a length.  And the best part was he was 6/1 at post time, producing a payout of $15! 

With my bet that meant I was cashing for $75 and had nearly paid for the day's eight race slate already!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Next up I was third with Chad Brown's first time starter Pink Poppy at 5/2; and failed again in the 4th when Sea Queen was no better than fourth at a very short 3/5.  But my second winner, which guaranteed a profit for the day came in the 6th where we were going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  Hey Leroy had first drawn my attention five races back when Major Marvel was defeated at odds-on by 'Leroy who earned a career best 90+ Beyer that day.  Since then he'd run 90's in two of his next four despite running second in four straight.  But upon closer examination I was willing to excuse all four of them!  Four back he was second best behind a loose-on-the-lead stakes winner who dropped into the allowance conditions and handily went wire to wire.  Three back he was second best to another loose-on-the-lead multiple stakes winner.  Two back he was ran and was steadied; and in his last he was the 2/1 favorite but was moved to the front prematurely by a low percentage rider.  Today he got Elvis Trujillo, a veteran of multiple graded wins over the turf.  He had him in the right spot today and turning for home he wore down the front runner, who was an 11-1 loose-on-the-lead pace setter!  Just edged up in the final sixteenth, and considering the rest of the field regularly topped out in the mid-80s on the Beyer scale the 3/1 post-time price was generous. 

The tote board flashed up $8.40 when it was official and I was cashing for over $40!  Awesome!  Todd Pletcher's first time starter, American Bond was allowed to leave the gate at a big 6/1, but ran to those long odds when 8th.  Right back to the winner's circle in the ninth however with Bill Mott's Pinball.  I'd picked him on top last time when he made his initial turf start off of three straight dirt scores.  He wired the field that day and paid over $7.  Today he was the only one in here with a win over the course and that Mott is a Gulfstream 40% Club member with two applying angles:  John Velazquez riding - 57% and moving up in class - 42%.  I thought he might rate today, but Velazquez had him battling on the lead to the top of the lane and then he spurted clear.  He was all out to hold off the closers, but safely under the wire at yet another good price. 

This time the board showed $6.40 which meant I was cashing for over $30!  In the Grade 2 Honey Fox I just could not bet Centre Court with Julian Leparoux, and besides I have always been a fan of Bill Mott's Tapicat....who was a perfect 3-for-3 over the course. Tapicat was the tepid 5/2 favorite and was a non-threatening fifth while Centre Court defended her 2013 Honey Fox title.  The last race of the day and on my betting slate was a Maiden Special for sophomores.  Lawn Party was a Todd Pletcher first time starter for Javier Castellano, for the powerful Stonestreet Stables....duh.  She was the 3/1 second choice in the program, and while Pletcher is not nearly as effective on the turf, his prices there are often more generous.  Such was the case when the crowd let her go at a giant 6/1!  She sat fourth into the turn and then Castellano asked the $675K daughter of Medaglia d'Oro to run.  She exploded four wide to inhale the field and set sail for the wire as CLEARLY the best!  The payoff was an astounding $14.00....on a Pletcher debut sophomore?  For real? 

FOR REAL!  I was cashing for $70 to run my record for the day to:

8 / 4 - 0 -1

Wagered $80 / Collected $219.00

TOTAL PROFIT:  $139.00

 

Truly, one of "those days" and it boosted me to a clear profit for the week!

Day 68

March 14

Yet another day in the continued procession of my horses not running to their form....sigh.....In the third we were going a mile on the turf and Heaven Help Me was my pick. Sent off at a fair 5/2, she set a reasonable pace, and was easily on the lead - spurted clear at the top of the lane, nailed inside the final 100 yards to be second. But I bounced right back in the 4th. This could easily have been a stakes race with all five of them former stakes winners. But the key here was all five were also "off form." So the key would be to predict which would produce something close to his best form. I knew the crowd would settle on Apriority, who was the track record holder at this distance - but that was three years ago; since then he'd only won one time, and that was three back in a spot like this. He had run the best, last-race figure as well, but he seemed untrustworthy to me and I noted that ever big effort was followed by a bounce. The likely pace setter, which would be dangerous if loose was Cajun Breeze....but he had a 5-for-125 rider for an 0-for-13 trainer. Seemed unlikely to hold on. So, I landed on Action Andy who two years ago had been a sharp stakes winner. But his two runs this season were better than they looked. He was wide in his 2014 debut in a very fast paced affair that didn't give him a chance; in his last, the Super Stakes he faced a very talented winner and ran deceptively well to be third while well clear of the rest of the field. I projected him to stalk Cajun Breeze and blow by in the stretch, and all he had to do was hold on over the out-of-form closers, like Apriority. The gates opened and the race went EXACTLY as I saw it.....the only thing I did not forsee was that Action Andy was under a hand ride the entire time and won under wraps!

Like so many of the previous days, it was only the second race and the payoff of nearly $30 put me in the black to start the day.  But Street Trick in the 5th was a disappointing 5th; then Best Behavior who looked much the best on paper was a fading 3rd at 6/5 and Aunt Ruby's Kitten showed little when sent off at 8/5 and finishing a beaten fifth.  And so it's another day of showing red ink at the bottom of the ledger.

Day 67

March 13 - 14

The good news was that to start the week I went a combined 3-for-9 over the two day span. The bad news was that on BOTH days I failed to reach a profit. On Wednesday, I had Horse-for-the-Course Blues and Silvers in the second, my first bet of the day.  He was 3-for-4 over the course and looked to be able to take these wire to wire.  He got an early pace challenge, but the fractions were not too fast;  I thought he easily could have dismissed that rival and had plenty left for the stretch.  But I did not think our chances evaporated when the rider let the longshot go and stalked the pace.  Blues and Silver moved easily to the front, but could not withstand the late closer and was a close-up second.  No problem as I came right back to score in the third when I supported Team Calabrese's Tale of Peace in a non-winners of three lifetime sprint with top rider Javier Castellano on board.  Moved to challenge on the turn and wore down the leader in deep stretch while being confidently handled! 

Cashed for a mere $13 with the minimum.  I only had two other plays and El Gran Joyful was the price play in the fifth at 7/1.  Never a threat, checking in eighth.  So, it came down to Honor Code winning the feature to launch his 3yo campaign and he disappointed in second. Not surprised after hearing Shug McGaughey say they just wanted him to have a good race. But he still should have EASILY run down that loose-on-the-lead last-out maiden winner. Sigh......

Then on Thursday I won four of the ten races. Sadly I only bet on five of the races and one of the two wins that I missed was when I listed a $19.00 winner on top with the comment that, "....may be worth a shot in this evenly matched group....." then decided against investing.  In the fourth I went against the 4/5 favorite (who was my second choice) in Veramundo.  He was the class of the field, dropping out of the Grade 1 Donn into this $25K optional claimer, but as a deep closer over the speed-favoring Gulfstream main track, not for me. I went with Bernie the Maestro who was the second choice at 9/5.  He led to the top of the lane and then Vermundo came flying like a freight train, right on by.....second.  Much like Wednesday I bounced right back, only this time I won with not only the next race but the NEXT TWO!  In the 5th, a maiden claimer on the turf, I went with Main Man Mike.  His first three starts saw him line up in the gate with future graded stakes stars Revolutionary, Orb, and Jack Milton.  He had excuses in his last two and the rider upgrade to a jockey winning at a 43% clip for the barn.  He won at a nice 2/1, pulling away in deep stretch.  But I'd only bet the minimum, so I only netted $15.  In the sixth I came right back to score over the turf in a claiming event when Jesse Can Mambo was MUCH the best at even money. 

Castellano again was in the saddle for me and I cashed for $10.50.  In the 7th Be My Love was the 2/1 choice and I doubled the bet as she'd won three of her last four turf sprints.  Led into the lane, and weakened to be third.  Awesome Vow in the 9th was my strongest play of the day.  She was a 10x winner, including five of her last nine .  The trainer was a 35% winner in 2013 and off to a 28% start here this season.  She'd won at this level in AOC company nw1x FOUR times and was the LONE SPEED!  Right to the front and in the clear by two open lengths at the furlong marker......run down in the final 16th to be second at 6/5.
With the two wins I had being the two smallest wagers of the day, I got a strong 40% winning percentage in handicapping for the day, but lost money, again. Such is the trend at the present. Hoping for bigger and better things through the remainder of the week!

Day 65

FOUR WINS!

No Profit......Again

I knew when I handicapped the Sunday card that Javier Castellano was going to have a HUGE day today and even mentioned on my Saturday recap video that he and Todd Pletcher would be winning multiple races today.  Now I am realistic enough to know that I was not going to win with all nine of my selections or that Castellano-Pletcher would win with every one of their entries.  But, if you had asked me before the first race which one I was certain they would win I would have said the feature, and bet that way....only to have THAT one disappoint and cost me the bottom line.  The day started with a big win in the opener.  Courtney Ryan had won seven of her last ten and three in a row.  The only issue was that she likes to be on the front end and would probably have company.  But, as I noted in my analysis, she has shown the ability to track the leaders and win....and that is exactly what jockey Joe Rocco did.  She drew off comfortably coming out of the turn and was going away under wraps! 

She was 2/1 in the program but was bet down to 3/5, so I cashed for a little more than fifteen dollars.  In the second I backed off the bet to the minimum and put Todd Pletcher's Kingston Jamaica on top in a mile and a half marathon.  He was right there after a mile, but faded at 7/2.  In the third I doubled the bet on My Cousin Fay.  It wasn't so much that she towered over these in ability, nor that Castellano was riding for trainer Peter Walder first off the claim.  What led me to her was that her rivals today were awful!  What ability she had just dwarfed her rivals and man it showed as she hit the top of the lane.  She drew off by eight widening lengths without ever being asked!  WHOOO HOOOO, win number 2! 

She had been 5/1 in the program, but was bet all the way down to even money.  Collected an even $20 here.  In the fifth I had a good opportunity to seal a winning day when Console went first off the claim for Michael Maker who put Castellano up.  Console had run in seven consecutive turf sprits and today Maker stretched him out to a mile.  So I knew he'd be on the lead and fully expected Castellano to ration her speed.  Well, half right....she was a juicy 4/1 with my double investment and went right to the front.  When the half mile split went up in a wicked :45 and change I knew he was going to be cooked in deep stretch.  A lot of credit goes to him hanging in there to be a close third while tiring noticeably.  In the sixth I had Castellano who was taking a rare mount for Team Calabrese.  Reflected Cat was 6/1 going a flat mile.  Rated off the pace to the turn and was a little wide, but when asked to run, nothing.....sixth.  Next was the BEST of the day in the featured Any Limit Stakes.  When I first noted that graded stakes winner Sweet Whiskey was entered here for Pletcher and Castellano my initial reaction was what is she doing in a $75K race after competing in three straight graded stakes, winning the last, the Grade 3 Old Hat here.  But the more I thought about it, I recalled last winter when graded sprint winner Kauai Katie won two graded stakes early in the meet and wasn't seen again after Pletcher noted publicly that there weren't any more sprint stakes for three-year-old fillies.  So with this being the first running of the Any Time, I figured that this race was created to give Sweet Whiskey a spot to run in.  It certainly looked that way as you compared the rivals.  Sweet Whiskey had a debut maiden win, two graded losses and a graded win.  The rest of the field was made up on maiden winners, and one who'd won an allowance race from well off the pace.  Whiskey's last two speed figure bested all the career tops of the field with the exception of two - a last out maiden winner (unlikely to repeat in her first start vs. winners) and the allowance winner who scored as a deep closer at 17/1.....what are the chances that a closer repeats that kind of effort against stakes company over the always-speed-favoring Gulfstream trip.  And having seen Sweet Whiskey rate off the pace from the inside draw in the Old Hat I had no concerns over today's seven furlong distance.  NONE of this played out as I thought.  She broke on top and instead of letting someone else go on with the lead, Castellano put her on the lead.  I was ok with that if she's setting a moderate pace, but when the half was :45 and change AND she was being pressured I knew she wouldn't last.  She put her pace rival away turning for home and I was hopeful she'd open up on class, but she had no response to not one but TWO closers.....third.  Sigh.......  In the ninth I rebounded with My Miss Sophia.  She had debuted with a best-of-the-rest second and a field best 85 speed figure for Pletcher.  The only concern for me was the stretch to a mile today.  But the Gulfstream 40% Club angles of second start of the meet (49%) and stretching out (42%) and dirt routes (40%) all confirmed my double investment.   She tracked a 50-1 longshot to the turn and then drew off by a widening ELEVEN LENGTHS merely being ridden out! 

She had been a fair 3/1 in the program, but was pounded down to 1/2 at post time.  A winner, but only $15 to collect.  In the tenth I went with another Pletcher-Castellano runner.  Riverboat Queen had debuted here last winter and was second by a neck after an awkward start, but came right back to score with authority.  She ran well in her first start, a listed stakes at Belmont, but then ran her two worst races at Monmouth.  She was a fast-closing fifth at the always tough Saratoga meet and off since.  I thought there was a good chance she just didn't like the Monmouth facility and with the return to the site of her two best races she'd run well for Pletcher.  She was 7th of 9 when they hit the turn, but accelerated into contention by the top of the lane, took over at the furlong marker and drew off as MUCH the best, my FOURTH winner on the day! 

She had been 5/2 in the program but was bet down to 9/5.  So I cashed for nearly $30.  I knew I the finale that Pletcher's Lusaka (6/1 in the program) was a chance to score.  And as I wrote in my analysis, even though on paper he did not seem a clear winner, I was NOT going to be one of the many handicappers who watched Pletcher  and Castellano top off a big day with a double-digit score and me not be aboard.  He'd not shown anything when I bet him in his 2014 debut last out, but the switch to Castellano gave me hope, as did the stat that Pletcher wins with 49% of his second-starters of the meet.  He did go off at 5/1 and he tracked the pace to the turn, moved up to challenge, and then.......faded to last :(  So for the day I scored with a big 44% of my picks, but like Saturday failed to show a profit.  Two factors led to this.....one, obviously was the loss by the BET of the Day.  But a more subtle cause was the way the runners were bet today.  My four winners WOULD have paid $165 if they had gone off at their program odds;  even a 20% reduction due to being bet down would have netted me over $125.....more than enough to profit for the day.  But they were bet down by OVER 50% and so I end up in the red for the day, the weekend, and the week.....while scoring with eighteen of my week's 59 picks.....over 30%.

Day 64

 

Tampa Bay Derby Day / Santa Anita Handicap Day

Gulfstream Park Handicap Day

It was a big day of racing all over the country - so many big races it made the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap look much less important than it was.  The day started very slowly for two reasons.....first, In two of my first three selections my horse had scratched; so from 12:25 until 2:00 pm I had only three races where I had selections.  And second, from 12:25 until 2:30 I was 0-for-6 with three seconds.  NOT the way I had foreseen the day going!  In the opener at Tampa Sugadadeze was the only runner who had not been in a conditioned claimer like this.  He went off as the 9/5 favorite but was five wide into the stretch - second.  The third at Tampa I really liked Splendoronthegrass.  He was dropping from an opening claiming event into a bottom-level 2-lifetime event.  In addition he'd shown speed last time, so the "Early speed / Class drop" angle was in play!  He went off at a generous 3/1 and set sail on the front end.  As they turned for home and I expected the class edge to kick in, he stopped....tenth.  WOW.  The third at Calder was an upset pick.  My Uncle Cardie looked to be the lone speed.  He had a consistent pattern of showing good speed and stopping, but today he looked loose on the lead and could be long gone at a price I thought.  Half right.....he was a good 5/1, but when another horse broke as sharply as he did the apprentice rider decided it would be a good idea to stalk the pace today.  Sigh.... a far back fourth.  My first selection at Gulfstream was Tiz Liberty.  He looked like the sneaky class of the race.....the last time he'd run for this claiming price he was a dominant winner with a 91 speed figure.  The only other time was a photo finish second after breaking poorly.  The crowd wasn't fooled - 4/5 favorite....but he was pinned inside the entire trip, couldn't get through until late - 2nd.  One of the most amazing losses came next at Aqueduct where the 4/5 favorite On The Whistle was LONG gone in mid-stretch.  Even at the 16th pole when you could tell that one closer was making up ground quickly, you still KNEW he'd never get there in time - he did.  It reminded me of last weekend's finale at Aqueduct where I WON with a miracle finish......today I get a taste of my own medicine!  Booo.  And finally, at the Fair Grounds, Ship's Telegraph was bet down to 8/5 favoritism.  His last effort was really poor, but two pack his pace figures put him on a clear and easy lead and LONG GONE.  He didn't break sharply - though not poorly either - while another runner did break on top.  With the lack of speed in the race, which I thought played into MY horse's wheel house, he was long gone....I was a dismal 6th. 

But finally I hit my "winning stride" - and I did so in a big way!  The 4th at Gulfstream was on the turf and my top pick was Gibson's Bullet.  He was the lone colt dropping out of Maiden Special company, which in and of itself would have pointed him out;  but the winner of his last came back to beat winners in his next start and the runner-up came right back to break his maiden.  It was further a positive sign that his back-to-back 71 Beyers towered over anything his rivals had run AND that the other six horses had a total of only three turf starts.  When I got to the Gulfstream I saw that GP Handicapper Ron Nicoletti had made Gibson his "BEST" of the day.  I considered upping the investment from the triple value to "prime time" but in the end didn't.  He was TONS the best in the final furlong, an I considered the $4.80 payoff a very generous payout. 

I cashed for nearly $40 - and now that's what I'm talking about!  Minutes later I was looking up at the simulcast monitor from Tampa Bay for my "BEST BET" of the day there.  In spite of three graded stakes on the card, I thought Bobby's Kitten was the standout on the card.  He had been my top selection on the Travers undercard last August when I was at historic Saratoga Race Track, with my brother-in-law Jason.  That day, in his maiden win, he'd shown a new dimension by going right to the front and wiring the field.....and that day my pick in the subsequent race had scratched, so I had doubled my double investment to make him a "Prime Time" investment.  Easily best that day.  In his next start he won the Grade 3 Pilgrim and then was the favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - where he was run down by the top two European juveniles, including the winner Outstrip, who paid over $15.

Today marked his first start since that November Breeders' Cup run.  He was a Double Beyer advantage horse; he had a bullet work for his comeback; and best of all, he looked like the lone speed breaking from the rail.  My original plan was to make him a "prime time investment" but I upped the investment to $30 to win.  He cleared the field easily and as they moved down the backstretch you could tell that jockey Javier Castellano had "his feet in the dashboard" as it's said.  And as they moved through the turn, the second choice was being hard ridden to stay with striking distance while Castellano was motionless.  As they hit the stretch Castellano still had him under wraps and he won off handily.  MUCH the best!  H had been 1/9 trough most of the betting, and eventually floated up to 1/5 which I thought was a very fair price.  But as they moved through the lane his price was up to a nice 2/5. 

I cashed for over $40 :)  Bobby had no sooner crossed the finish line than they were loading into the gate at Calder.  The favorite was on the rail and bound to show speed, but he'd quit in his debut and with no drop in class I didn't see any reason that he'd take these guys wire to wire.  The actual betting favorite was a debut runner I did not like.  My pick was Gumara who was also debuting.  But his trainer was scoring at an amazing 57% with first time starters, and at 44% with today's jockey.  He was 9/5 at one point, then 2/1 at post time. And amazingly when they crossed the finish line he was an even better 5/2!  Cashed with my third in a row for another near $40!  I had a good handicapping pick in my next at Tampa in Etna's Anger at a huge 11/1.  Made a nice run, but only good enough for third.  Good pick, just no reward.  But I scored right back with my "Calder Best" with Longer Terms Doug.  He looked to be th LONE speed today for top local rider Edgar Zayas.  But with the outside draw and the seven furlong distance it was a big plus that I felt he could comfortably stalk the leaders and make a move into the lane.  The race could not have been scripted any better in my analysis.  He sat fourth through the first quarter mile, then slipped into second by himself as he dropped down inside.  Zayas looked confident that the leader was well within his sites - and as they began to spin out of the turn he said "GO!"  Doug was L-O-N-G gone! 

 

My prime time investment netted a $30 payoff :)  I missed on three straight - Gulfstream where my turf pick Rapscallion was simply outrun (5th); Igetsoenotional over the Fair Grounds turf saved all the ground and then had nothing for the stretch run (4th); and Todd Pletcher's Holy Wildcat tried to break his maiden fro off the pace but could not make up much ground on the top ones (4th).  Then it was time for the Grade 3 Hillsborough at Tampa, going nine furlongs over the turf.  I had seen Waterway Run make her North American debut on Feburary 7 at Gulstream going a mile. That day he broke slowly, trailed the field through a glacial pace (:51 and change), was fanned seven wide (at least) into the stretch and STILL only lost on a head bob.  Here she was today stretching out, and moving into graded company.  With any kind of trip I thought she had an excellent chance to score here, so I made her a "prime time" bet.  Apparently many handicappers though so as well as she left the gate at 7/2.  Today she was right behind the leaders saving all the ground on the rail under Jose Lezcano.  Through the turn she was behind a wall of four horses crying out to run, but he had no where to take her.  But as they came out of the turn the rail opened and he accelerated through to the lead.  The local winner of the prep for the race was in full flight for her and drew up within a half length, but at the 16th pole she seemed to break open again and was nearly a length clear.  But then the other mare accelerated and it was a head bobbing finish.  One bob before, one bob after and I cash for $80 and have a winning day.  But on the wire, well, here, you look for yourself.....

SO close, so very, very close.  I didn't know at the time that this would cost me my profit, but I was so right in making her my pick.  Sigh...... No time to cry over spilled milk as they were in the gate at Santa Anita for my first selection there.  Ferocious looked to be sitting in a perfect spot right behind the leaders - on paper - with a good finishing kick.  Instead he was pressing while three deep the entire way through a wicked :44 and change pace call.  But inside the final 16th as four of them were across the track he was the one who was able to reach down and score.  I missed at Calder when Discreet Ed pressed the pace at 4/1 odds but gave way on the turn.  Back to "my seat" in Section 101 to watch the 8th at Gulfstream.  It was a MSW for three-year-olds on the turf going nine furlongs.  My pick was Todd Pletcher's Picozza.  In his debut he'd come from well off the pace and hit the board.  Then in his last he tried to wire the field.  Breaking from post nine I thought John Velazquez would have him stalking the pace and finish best of all.  Instead he gunned Pecozza right to the front!  He dueled on the inside of a longshot leader and as they came out of the turn I thought he would probably be out of gas.......how wrong was I?  He accelerated and blew the doors off the field! 

Wish I'd bet more, but still I cashed my second Gulfstream ticket!  Disappointed at the Fair Grounds when Strong Willed Lady was the 5/2 choice and showed nothing (8th) and at Tampa where I played "track psychology" by taking the "other Chad Brown" horse in Kitten Kaboodle.  I had had her in her win in the Grade 3 Jessamine and today she had the rail and Javier Castellano.  The favorite was his other filly in post 12, and I thought this was a perfect day for playing the longer price of an uncoupled entry.  Nope, only 7th while the favorite blew by in the stretch.  Then I changed my bet in the Grade 2 San Felipe, the local prep for the Santa Anita Derby to Shoolofhardknocks based on Jeff Seigal's analysis.  My original pick was second, but he was never going to win at 2/1.  And at least I got a bit of a thrill as my new pick accelerated on the turn at 9/2, but flattened out.  The winner, California Chrome had won two straight in state-bred stakes and was sent off as the 7/5 choice.  He was amazing.....after setting a :45 half mile pace he drew off to win easily.  For the ump-tenth time I thought about Game on Dude in the Big 'Cap later wonder if speed could hold today?  More on that woeful tale later :(  

Now it was time for the 9th and featured Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap.  As I'd told Kim on our walk this morning, my pick here was one of several that I felt strongly enough that they'd win, but there were plenty of reasons that afterwards if they did not I couldn't argue with anyone that told me it was a bad pick.  Palace Malice had been a favorite three-year-old on the Louisiana Triple Crown trail, but he'd let me down.  I had him again I the Bluegrass and again he let me down after drawing clear in the stretch.  But he'd fired big time to win the Grade 1 Belmont and then again to be much the best in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy.  I did not like him for the Travers and he didn't win, but to be fair he had a troubled trip.  He'd not been out since then and today's race was a 1-turn mile - too short for him?  But I thought that he was simply the class of the field and with Todd Pletcher at the controls, I thought he'd come back running.  I did not like either of the other top two betting choices, Itsmyluckyday - who'd won the Grade 3 Holy Bull here last winter then was second in the Florida Derby and the Preakness.  Nor did I like Falling Sky who had surprised the Gulfstream Sprint three weeks ago.  But as they hit the top of the stretch it was those three across the track.  Palace Malice had been wide the whole way and had every excuse not to preserve, but he surged to the lead!  No longer had he done so than the off-pace runners came to him and passed him - both Uncaptured and Golden Ticket.  Now after a clear run on the outside pressing the pace, Palace Malice would have to rally up the rail behind two closers with all the momentum.  But I could tell he was not done and he re-broke for Johnny Velazquez and surged to the wire in front in one of the most courageous efforts I've seen live, ever.  WHOOOO HOOOOO, my third winner at Gulfstream! 

He had gone off the betting favorite and I'd only made a double investment, but it's always good to win the feature at Gulfstream.....well, it's always good to be right, period!  Three more misses - Aqueduct a price play never fired and in the Tampa Bay Derby I didn't have a strong opinion and went with a minimum bet on a logical longshot.  I missed with my BEST at the Fair Grounds when Delaunay was a SEVEN time open stakes winner, including a Grade 2 winner, taking on a field of runners without a single open stakes win!  There was a former claimer who'd rattled off four in a row on the front end drawn on the rail.  I fully expected that one to gun to the front and Delauney to be close to him, then exert his class turning for home and blow by.  Never got to him ..... long gone.  Sigh......

But I was re-energized with a win in the China Doll Stakes for three-year-old fillies at Santa Anita going a mile on the turf.  I had seen Diversy Harbor in her maiden debut - she was going 6 1/2 furlongs down the Santa Anita hillside course.  I liked her because trainer Tom Proctor has a long history with newly un-retired jockey Gary Stevens and always does very well with horses from owners Glen Hill Farms.  Well, as they crossed the main track into the stretch she was TENTH, buried on the rail behind an army of runners.  Stevens slid her to the outside for clear run and she INHALED the field in one of the most breath-taking runs I've seen since Goldikova in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Mile.  So today, stretching out to two turns didn't seem like a big deal to me.  I thought that she, like Waterway Run, had an excellent chance to score at a price.  The pace was quick, but the favorite was clear at the furlong pole and Diversey Harbor was no where to be seen in the back.....but I knew she was coming.  She accelerated to the front in the shadow of the wire to WIN! 

As a side note.....normally I am a quiet observer at the races, especially in front of the TV monitors.  But every once in a while some other fan gets under my skin for what ever reason and I become a loud, rabid, vocal fan :)  Well, they had just broken out of the gate and this guy behind me is not only loud and obnoxious about his "cheering" but he's using every swear word in the dictionary to describe his horse and jockey in his "cheering."  So as they turned for home I opened up and thoroughly enjoyed cheering and WINNING! :)))))  Another disappointment in the next at Gulfstream.  Just as I thought Todd Pletcher would have Palace Malice ready off the layoff, I was even more sure he'd have multiple graded stakes winner Unlimited Budget ready off the bench in her 2014 debut - in allowance company in particular.  She went off at 3/5 and was never a threat, fourth.  I made my last sequence of bets, filmed my most recent winners, and headed into the box seats on the finish line to watch my final selection at Gulfstream.  It was a maiden claiming event, on the turf.  Golden Rifle did NOT look to have a lot of talent, but she had a lot going for her.....She was lightly raced and all but two others were proven losers.  Those other two were badly beaten recently and unlike 'Rifle, they were not dropping in class.  Last time she was the tepid 3/1 favorite coming off a layoff for new connections and she was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths.  She was - on paper - tons better than her rivals today AND dropping in class.  She stalked the leader the length of the backstretch and through the turn, and I knew...I KNEW it wasn't a question of if she'd win, it was going to be by how much.  When given her cue she accelerated and won by half the length of the stretch! 

My FOURTH win at Gulfstream....no matter what happens the rest of any day at the races, if you can pick four winners on one card at Gulfstream Park!  I knew that with the loss by Waterway Run, Delauney, and Unlimited Budget....and NONE of my horses paying anything that I was unlikely to be a winner on the day.  But I did want to get my 30%+ winners.  As I walked to the car I knew I need to win at least one to be close - to would get me to 30% and three would be even better and make for a more "reasonable" loss on the day....and maybe, just maybe if Mucho Macho Man went off at a price in the Big 'Cap and I won with four of the six I might be able to eek out a profit.  When I got home I watched the replays and scored with my first of them, the finale at Tampa.....and at a price when Royal Hill was 4/1 and I had a near-$30 winning ticket. 

Missed at the Fair Grounds at 2/1....grrrr.  But then it was time for the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita.  I thought Winning Prize would be a short priced favorite and a likely winner.  But as I watched the replay his odds were an amazing 7/2!  I didn't think he'd be on the lead, but would be pressing the lead.  But that's why I am NOT the jockey.  Right to the front, dueled opened up, was challenged but fought on to the wire to score over a Gulfstream shipper.  The payoff was a NICE $9.60 meaning I got back another near-$50 and now the day was already a "reasonbable" loss. 

In the Big 'Cap I had gone back and forth about Game On Dude.  He's been my pick in every big race out west for several years and I have not hesitated to bet $50, $75, or even $100 on him at miniscule odds.  I KNEW he'd be an unbelievable price today but his last three - all of which I had bet him - he'd not only lost, but two of the three, especially the last, he did not seem himself.  Then I read and heard trainer Bob Baffert's pre-race comments.  Not the most ringing endorsement I thought.  I told Kim that I wanted to bet Game on Dude, but that Mucho Macho Man had run exceptional every time he'd been to Santa Anita, and he looked the part.  If Game On Dude was not on his "A" game the 'Man would be tons the best.  Sigh.....Game on Dude WAS himself, and wired the field and paid an ultra-amazing $13.20.  Even a $10 bet would have got back $66 and I'd been even; a mere $20 gamble and I'm a big winner.  But I went against my gut.  Sigh.....still, inspite of it all, a win by Waterway Run would have made me a winner on the day. 

But on the day I was 11-for-34, a solid 32%, and it had been a great day at the races!

Day 63

Shut Out AGAIN on Wednesday

BEST BET WINS On Thursday

After going winless Thursday - for the second time in two weeks, that's unusual - I scored 40% on Friday, but still did not make a profit. I thought I was on my way to recovering with a big day when the 3rd went just as I'd seen it on paper and Jersey Blue Giant swept by the leader turning for home and drew off as much the best, netting me nearly $30. I was surprised when Wild ZZZ was sent off at 3/5 (I only had the minimum on him); he'd been second in three straight photos, not the kind of runner I'd invest that heavily in. He cleared the field and looked long gone with fifty yards to the wire......nailed again on the finish line! In the 6th I couldn't decide between Scat Daddy for Todd Pletcher and Thundr Run for Chad Brown. Didn't want to be wrong, again, guessing against Pletcher....you can figure it out - yes, Thunder Run at a juicy $6.00. The 8th at Aqueduct marked the return to the races of Grade 1 Spinaway winner Sweet Reason. She looked TONS the best in here, but was going a flat mile. It was a little closer than I'd have liked, but she won (and honestly wasn't pushed for 100% of her run) - my "BET of the DAY!"

Calistoga closed the day at Gulfstream. She'd been 1/5 last out coming off a big 3-year-old season, but got cooked in a speed duel. I thought jockey Joel Rosario should have known not to push her that hard that day, especially at 7 furlongs. There was another front-running filly that would compromise her today so I was certain Rosario would sit off the lead. He did, but NEAR THE BACK OF THE PACK! As I expected the 6 1/2 furlongs was too far for the pace setter, and as I expected it was a stalker that won. But Rosario had Calistoga too far back, a non-threatening third :(