Day 38

Thursday January 30

Not much to say other than Julian Leparoux.....again.  I had three selections left after the rain moved the races off the turf and scratches.  I thought I had a legitimate wire-to-wire upset threat in the first, and CD Gold went right to the front at 8/1....but before the first quarter mile was over another pressed her and passed her and she faded to 7th.  In the third Another Incident (5/2) tried to rally into a pronounced speed bias on the track and was a flat sixth.  My final bet was a triple investment in Hurricane Pass from the Michael Maker barn.  Maker wins with 40% of his runners entered for less that $40K, like this race, and with a whopping 50% with his class droppers, like this one.  The only problem was jockey Julian Leparoux, who if you have followed my adventures you know he haunts me at nearly every turn when I support him.  Sure enough, he had Hurricane Pass in a good stalking position at a ripe 2/1 price as they came out of the turn.  But for what ever reason, and I'll pin it on him, instead of pressing the long shot leader on his hip and blowing by, Hurricane Pass floated at least five wide before Leparoux had him straightened for the run to the wire.  Meanwhile the 6/5 favorite was flying up the rail.  It was a head up and head down duel to the wire.....you can guess, here's the photo.  WOW...... 

But Friday was a M-U-C-H better day! 

Friday January 31

BIG Finish To January!

Yes, today turned out to be a much better day and with two very interesting "track stories" to tell :)  Despite near-sunny skies here at home the track was still very sloppy and we were off the turf today.  But, that was ok as I had anticipated this might be the case and had handicapped accordingly.  And in anticipation of buying the print version of the Daily Racing Form for Saturday I'd completed my handicapping of Gulfstream's Saturday card last night.  I sat down to look at the Racing Form and the entries for Gulfstream didn't match with my selections. My first thought was I'd uploaded the wrong selection analysis for Saturday.  No, I'd bought the wrong version of the DRF!  I had even looked at it carefully because I did not see the "Saturday" across the top like I usually do.  Really?  Not the way I thought I'd start today!  But then I noticed on the cover that a filly I'd hammered at Aqueduct as my BEST of the day a couple of weeks ago was the favorite in the Friday feature.  I flipped to the 8th and saw that indeed Marriedtohemusic was the LONE speed and at 5 1/2 furlongs she would never be caught so I added her to my betting list for today. 

The races started and I thought Hearty Congrats would have a good chance to finish into a pace duel in the Gulfstream opener.  But like yesterday you HAD to be on the lead, or close to it to win.  He was 5/2, so I was encouraged but after making a middle move he was flat through the lane and was 4th.  In the 4th I liked Earthly Delights and he two made a mild rally on the turn and also flattened out to be fifth.  Finally I got my first winner in the 6th.  It was a maiden claiming event and it was scheduled for the turf.  Trainer Michael Maker had entered Drama Coach who was vey fast.  Javier Castellano was a 31% winning rider for the barn in addition to being the top rider at the meet.  Maker was dropping her out of a Maiden Special event into this $25K spot.  Maker is a Gulfstream Park 40% Club member on two angles.....claiming events below $40K, a 40% winning percentage.  And with class droppers a big 50% (remember this from yesterday when Leparoux couldn't capitalize?  Grrrr).  Castellano took her right to the front and after putting away a pace rival at the top of the lane she drew off impressively. 

So after two minimum level bets missed and a double investment score with a 4/5 favorite I'm nearly even!  In the 8th at Gulfstream I stuck with my stalker/closer because I truly thought the favorite was over rated.  Made the right move, except my rider moved too soon ON the turn and went inside the favorite instead of letting that one engage the pace setter and then blowing by on the outside.....now we were pinned on the rail in the slop and were only second best.  Next up was the New York race.  In the first two seconds the race was over.....the gates opened and in two jumps Marriedtothemusic was three lengths in front.  She galloped in fast time and scored going away......WHOOO HOOOO!  Though she paid very little, I made back nearly the price of the DRF I'd bought this morning!  I'll call it a wash :) 

Then came the Gulfstream BEST and the score of the day to close out the month.  The 9th at Gulfstream was scheduled for 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  If it stayed on the grass, which I thought when I handicapped it might, I really liked Christophe Clement's filly Sea Queen.  But if it came off the turf I was equally excited about Dame Dorothy.  As soon as I saw her pp's I knew she was a near certain winner.  Here's the pp's on her and what turned out to be the 6/5 favorite......

Two things jump out at me, first check out the record of normally solid trainer Ian Wilkes who trains Bird Maker.....0-for-25!  YIKES and Julian Leparoux riding.  Now, look at Dame Dorothy.  Pletcher trained, well there you go.  But she was an absolute prototype of the typical Pletcher three-year-old winner.  Win at first asking as a juvenile, take a few months off and come back at Gulfstream running.  Pletcher is a 42% winner with stretch outs, 40% with dirt routers and a big 47% with horses stepping up in class.  With top rider Javier Castellano on board you know she'll get the right ride, unlike Bird Maker.  I tripled the bet.  As they approached the gate Dorothy was 9/5 and Bird was 8/5.  But as they moved around the first turn Bird had dropped to 7/5 and Dorothy was 2/1......and as they moved down the backstretch the odds changed again, somehow Pletcher's filly had ballooned up to 5/2!  I knew, I JUST KNEW as they turned up the backstretch I was the winner.  I could tell Castellano had a ton of horse and in spite of being wide through the first turn he had his mount placed just off the pace setter.  He obviously understood how the track was playing.  Leparoux however held his mount back.  Especially with the first finish line I knew he'd never catch Dame Dorothy.  Sure enough as they hit the turn Castellano accelerated to the front.  Bird Maker began his run but was spinning his wheels on the golden path to the wire and Dorothy widened the victory margin to TWELVE lengths while motored down.  And here's the best part.....she paid an amazing $7.40!  I cashed for over $55 and had made nearly $35 while going 3-for-6 on the last day of the month!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!

Day 36

Not One But TWO BEST BETS WIN!

My original plan was to head out to Gulfstream for the day today, and then the weather forecast came out, calling for rain.  But that was ok, I don't mind an off track, in fact I kind of like playing off-track races and being there.....and I had some "main-track-only" selections if it came to that.  But as Kim was leaving for work (yes, back to work in spite of the eye issues) and I was getting up (because I don't HAVE to get up early, I'm retired!) it was pouring down rain outside.  I told Kim I wasn't sure about going to Gulfstream.  I wasn't very interested in driving in a pouring down rainstorm on Interstate 95 just to bet a few races when I could watch on HRTV.  As the morning started the rain let up and a bit of sunshine actually peeked through.  So I decided I would head out and enjoy the off-going.  But with thunderstorms in the forecast for the entire day I settled on heading out for the first five races, then coming home to watch my last three selections run.  I arrived at Gulfstream as the horses were loading in the gate for the opener.  I didn't have a bet, and my top pick was the #6 who I thought would be the favorite.  On the board the #2 was 1-2, and I checked my sheet....he wasn't even in my top three! As the horses hit the far turn the favorite was on the lead but my top pick, at 4/1, was pressing the leader.  At the furlong pole my pick pulled away and the chalk didn't even hit the board.  Not only was I right with my top pick, but the favorite was an obvious "false favorite." 

The second race was scheduled for the turf and I thought Blues and Silvers was a solid pick....there was other speed, but I thought he'd be a fair price and be the speed of the speed.  But, in the event it was washed off the turf I LOVED Sonja's Angel.  She was 2-for-3 at Gulfstream, had Javier Castellano named to ride and fit THREE Gulfstream Park 40% Club angles for Peter Walder.  The jockey-trainer team had clicked at 43% over the last two winters; Walder's runners making their second start off a 30+ layoff won at an equal 43%; and his dirt routers were the same 43% win play.  My plan was to make her a "prime time" play.  But with only four rivals to beat, after the scratches when the race came off the turf I upped the investment to a "BEST of the DAY" level of $30.  I had thought it would be a one-turn mile on the dirt, but it was set for a mile and a sixteenth, which meant the early/alternate finish line half way up the stretch.  No problem because Sonja's Angel was an up-close runner. BUT....her previous wins here had been at the one-turn mile.  Would the added ground make a difference?  She stalked the pace while well held and on the turn Castellano let her run and she was L - O - N - G gone!  She'd been 4/5 as they loaded into the gate and I thought was a huge price for her realistic chances.  But when they hit the far turn the late money had dropped her odds to a miserly 1/5. 

Paid $2.60 and I cashed for nearly $40.  A good feeling to be right with my handicapping and to back it up big time. I didn't have anything in the 3rd, but I did plan to buy a commemorative Gulfstream Park book with photos from the first 75 years.  I was sure I'd read online it was $24.  I went to the gift shop and it was a nice book.  I put it on the counter and the lady rang it up, "that will be $70" she said!  What the......I had mis-read the price, it was $74 if you ordered by phone and $65 if you bought it in person.  I am nearly certain I will eventually get it, but not today. 

The 4th was an interesting race with the conditions being an allowance event for non-winners of a race since December 29.  None of the runners were a perfect fit, but I was against the Pletcher runner.  I was a bit worried that she would win and I'd regret it, but she was making her first start off the turf and that just didn't look like a good fit to me.  Conversely I thought Team Calabrese's Dreaming of Sophia was an excellent alternative.  She was a fair 2/1 and stalked the pace to the turn.  When asked to run she had nothing and finished last of six.  The last race before I planned to leave was the next, the fifth race.  It was a maiden claimer scheduled for five furlongs on the turf.  I liked another Team Calabrese runner, Tough To Stop.  She was first off the claim, and if you check out my analysis, you can see that she had all the numbers and I was actually hoping it would come off the grass.........

I thought she would be odds on, in the neighborhood of 3/5 for sure, but she was 9/5 and dropped to 6/5.  But the crowd never bet her down any further.  I was so excited that she was better than even money.  I took a seat on the finish line in the box seats where we'd sat for Florida Derby Day.  Exactly like I envisioned the race as Edgar Zayas gunned her right to the front and she was clear heading through the turn.  As they turned for home the second choice in the betting was making up ground but I didn't think she would catch her.  Tough to Stop shifted out somewhat and track announcer Larry Colmus called, "Tough to Stop shifts out and that causes Dreamforcarmella C to steady...."  seriously, are we going to have an inquiry or objection.  The closers were coming, but Tough to Stop was safely first....if the race had been at six furlongs it would have been a problem!  I waited for the "ladies and gentlemen...." announcement, but it never came.  It started to rain so I headed towards the car as it was made official.....the payoff of $4.60 was nice and I cashed for nearly $35. 

I didn't have a bet in the 6th, so it was my plan to head home immediately after Tough to Stop's race and get home in time to watch Great Rising Star in the 7th, which was my MTO pick.  Before I went to make my late bets however I was reading what Ron Nicoletti had to say about the afternoon's BET of the DAY in the 8th, and I noticed his pick for the 6th was also Great Rising Star, and then I read his comment, "....of obvious concern is his 37/1-7-6 career record....."  OH MY, somehow I missed that!  And to think he'll be one of the favorites, I made the decision to pass the race.  I went to make my last two bets and the last race selection had scratched.  So instead of heading home with four races to watch, I only had two.  Once I got home I watched the HRTV broadcast of the 7th and Great Rising Star went off as the short priced favorite and was every bit as convincing a winner as was Sonja's Angel in the first bet of the day.  Go figure.  The eighth was the BET of the DAY, and it was a maiden special for sophomore fillies.  Yes, my pick was a Todd Pletcher filly.  The name was Got Lucky.  Here's what I saw in handicapping that made her a standout.  First, and what would make her not only the favorite - as a Pletcher runner - but a short priced favorite, she was coming out of a photo-finish second....good enough on it's own merit.....in the Grade 2 Demoiselle behind Stopshoppingmaria, a Pletcher multiple-stakes winning filly.  And that was AS A MAIDEN!  That would have made her prime time to me, but in her debut she ran in a one-mile race at Belmont.  The winner of that race came back to be third in the Grade 2 Demoiselle - which with Got Lucky beating her maiden rival added to the confidence - and then Penwith came back last week to score last week as the 2/5 favorite in allowance company.  The show horse behind Got Lucky in that maiden run was a filly by the name of U.S.S. O'Brien.  That filly dominated her maiden rivals at Aqueduct last month as my top pick.  The bottom line is that this is one top-notch filly, who's faced high quality runners.  Her drop into this maiden spot made her a standout.  As if you needed anything else, Pletcher is a 44% winner on turnbacks in distance; 45% with horses off a 31 to 60 day layoff; with all dirt routers at 40%; and a huge 47% with class droppers.  WOW.  Sounds like a slam dunk!  Wait a tic......on Sunday, Pletcher sent out a "slam dunk" filly in Highestmaintanence, who also was exiting a photo finish second in a stakes race....and she didn't even hit the board as the 1/5 favorite and my "Bet of the Day."  The only other concern I had was that last race top effort came at nine furlongs, would today's eight furlongs, as a off-the-pace runner, suit her?  I went "all in" with a $50 investment. 

When the gates opened Got Lucky was squeezed back and was quickly behind the leaders.  John Velazquez, still searching for his first win since returning from a Breeders' Cup Day injury on Saturday, moved her outside to have clear run.  As they moved down the backstretch she was five or six off the lead, not too far, but a bit of a concern to me since speed had seemed the way to go today on the off-going.  As they hit the turn he asked Got Lucky to start running.  She did not have a sudden acceleration, but you could tell with each jump her stride was lengthening more and more.  She quickly passed horses in spite of being four wide though the turn and as heads turned for home she had collared the leader.  How much had this extended run taken out of her?  As they neared the furlong marker she found another gear and blew down the stretch as TONS the best!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Ironic that Sonja's Angel, in a claiming event was 1/5, but here in a high quality maiden special race, this stakes-placed filly was allowed to go off at an "inflated" 2/5.  If ever a runner should have been odds on, it was certainly here.  The $2.80 payoff meant I'll be cashing for $70 when I go back to the windows!  In the 9th I liked Toh's Grey Cat who was a healthy 7/2 price.  Right there stalking the pace to the turn, but no late response....7th.  So to start the week I went three-four-five and a $23.50 flat-bet profit winner!

Day 35

A Great Day At The Races

By far the highlight of the day was spending a day under the beautiful Florida sunshine of 80 degrees with the Nelson family.  But to be honest, it was NOT the kind of day I expected based on the way the week had gone, so before I recount the highlights of the day, let me list the multiple, MANY disappointments of the day......

• 1-Aqueduct, England at 4/5 is outrun to the front and is never in it, 4th
• 1-Tampa, Cookie at 1/1 duels from gate to wire, but is outfinished, 2nd
• 2-Aqueduct, Rift claimed for $20K dropped to $12K is outrun at 6/5, 5th
• 2-Gulfstream, Highestmaintenance at 1/5 is dueled into defeat and finishes off the board as my BET of the Day
• 4-Tampa, Film Star running for a 48% winning barn first time for them led to the furlong pole and then was outfinished to be 2nd
• 7-Aqueduct, Kilnockagain is unbeaten over the Aqueduct inner course, goes off a 4/5 and fails to hit the board, 4th
• 8-Tampa, Crimson Knight - my Tampa "best" sets an easy pace to mid-stretch then is caught by not one by two rivals - 3rd at 6/5

Considering that on those seven races I lost nearly $150 and that I lost with SIX other added money investments it is a REMARKABLE story that I nearly evened my money in the final four races of the day.  On the day I scored eight times and at the end had a "reasonable loss" for the day but concluded a great week of handicapping with big numbers.  So, let's now look at the highlights! 

My first win of the day came in the third at Tampa, a non-winners of 3-lifetime.  When I went through the horses the first time I not only had no strong opinion on any of them, but when I looked at the runner with the "best" numbers I quickly felt that Bold Occurance was not for me.  He was a weak 2-for-21 and had finished back-to-back seconds a this level.  Top that off with a rider that was only 4-for-43!  But when I flipped to the selections page, it was the DRF Handicapper's "BEST" of the day.  How can that be I thought?  He has to know something that's not obvious, so on that angle alone I made him a minimum selection.  He was sent off at 6/5 and hestalked the leaders into the stretch, moved up three wide, engaged the leader to the furlong marker and drew off in hand to win.  WOW....go figure!  But at that point of the day, I was happy to cash any ticket on any horse.  Less than five minutes later I had my "best" of the day at Calder.  Last Saturday I had planned to triple the bet on Kodiak Kody in a Maiden Special event, but he scratched.  He was re-entered today and he looked as good if not better than last week, so again I tripled the bet.  He stalked the dueling leaders to the turn, then glided up and edged to the front.  As heads turned for home and he looked like he would draw off the pace-setting second choice refused to give way.  A terrific duel to the wire started!  And in the final 100 yards a closer on the outside, and one up the rail were flying for a four-horse blanket finish!  I was nearly certain that I'd won in spite of the slo-mo photo finish on the board.  Sure enough, I'd scored again and cashed for over $40!

The next score came at Gulfstream, it was a "it figures today" kind of win.  By the time the fifth race went to post I'd already lost with 7 short-priced favorites, four with deep investments.....it was just one of those days, a hard day to find a winner.  The fifth was my "UPSET of the Day" and I'd selected Cars and Trucks at 12/1 in the program as we headed on to the turf.  But, when I got to the track he was scratched.  Normally when I have my top selection, at a price, scratch I pass the race because very often my second choice is a favorite that I did not like.  But today I did like Sayler's Creek.  He was a Ramsey runner, trained by Michael Maker with Javier Castellano on board.  All that was a plus; but he was marooned in post eleven and was coming off a gut-wrenching photo-finish win at this claiming price, but in nw2L company..  But the connections were solid and he'd fired two bullet works since that race.  So I had decided before the racing day started (and all the favorites went down) that I would move him to the top of the list and double the bet.  Castellano had him placed near the back off a hot pace (:23 - :46 for a turf route).  He moved approaching the turn, was wide through the turn and set sail in front for the wire once heads turned for home.  There was no caching him as he was much the best. 

The payoff of a nice $7.60 netted nearly $40 for me!  I scored again at Tampa in a Maiden Special event for older runners.  Bowman's Sam seemed, like so many of my picks today an OBVIOUS winner.  Granted Beyer Speed Figures are a little less reliable in maiden races, but his last THREE RACE FIGURES were better than any figure earned by any other rival in the field today.  He was in hand on the front end, but as they hit the turn, the second choice was breathing down his neck.  It was time to accelerate and sprint to the wire.....but it was the challenger who surged to the front!  I thought, "you've got to be kidding...." as this looked to be just another "how does this happen" finish for me today.  But inside the furlong marker Bowman showed great courage and heart, especially for a runner on the rail inside a horse that had headed him, and most especially as a maiden.  He reached down and surged to the front in the final fifty yards. 

My triple investment returned nearly $30 for me.  I scored on the turf at the Fair Grounds in their 5th, a claiming event going eight furlongs.  When I first scanned the field I thought that #10-Splendiferous was a good favorite to play against.  Top rider Rosie Napravnik was on board and this runner had been unable to win for months.  But after looking through the field I was not certain any of the others would win.  I re-examined Splendiferous.  His last win had come as the second of two straight....both here, and both with Rosie up.  In fact it was the last time she'd ridden the horse.  His closing style would minimize the outside post disadvantage and by being outside most would be like I was early in my handicapping decision-making, leery of him and a boost to his price.  Sure enough he went off at better than 5/2, and as they approached the far turn Splendiferous was not in the TV screen.  By the time they hit the top of the lane he was fourth and had all the momentum.  He struck the front with a furlong to go and nearly ran out of gas, but had enough left to win for the third time in a row under Rosie's riding. 

The "best" score of the day came in the feature at Gulfstream, the Sweetest Chant Stakes for three-year-old fillies.  I've often said that to win the "big" race of the day, to be "right" in the big race is often as rewarding as having a winning day.  And with the Nelsons here and following (often betting) my picks, it was important to me to have the "right horse" in the big race of the day.  I liked Ready to Act.  She had won at first asking at Saratoga last summer and seemed well on her way to her first graded win in her second start, the Grade 2 Natalma at Woodbine.  But in mid-stretch when clear of the field she suddenly turned sharply to the left, tossed the rider and nearly ran into the rail!  Trainer Chad Brown did not give up on her and she was sent to the Breeders' Cup.  She drew the far outside post 11 for the BC Juvenile Filly Turf, but still pressed the pace all the way to the stretch despite the wide trip.  Though she faded to sixth, she was only five off the leader on the wire.  So when she came back here a month ago in an allowance spot I thought she was much the best.  But after moving to the front turning for home, she was flat through the lane and was second to an upset longshot.  Both that winning filly and the one who was just behind Ready To Act that day were back today.  To me I felt like if Chad Brown felt she was not the same filly he would not have come off that disappointing effort to run in a stakes, he'd have sent her into another allowance spot.  I also thought that the two others from the race were flattered by the fact that she did not run her best.  And I didn't like any of the other rivals here.  She was a co-choice 2/1 as they approached the gate.  Finally she was the tepid 9/5 favorite as the moved up the backstretch.  She sat third off dueling front runners.  I told Jeff, "She's right where she should be and needs to be if she's good enough today."  On the turn she moved outside the leaders and surged to the front.  But it was a stretch duel to the wire.  She again ran greenly, first veering in, then out.  So her narrow win was a "better than it looks" as she probably would have been open lengths the best if she'd run straight.  I was delighted to share a winning ticket with my good buddy! 

The payoff of $5.80 was more than generous considering how talented I believe Ready To Act is.  After losing the finale at Gulfstream we said our goodbyes and I made four late bets to watch later.  I didn't add up the numbers on the day, as is my practice - just superstitious about that.  But in glancing at my two selection sheets I thought if I had any chance of breaking even I needed to sweep or take three of the four.  Later that evening I watched my HRTV recordings and in the first of the four it was my "Upset of the Day" at the Fair Grounds.  Fable was my pick in a maiden special event on the turf for three-year-olds.  He was a debut runner, but here's what caught my eye, the barn was 17% with a huge $8.68 ROI with first time starters, and an even better 22% with first-time turf runners, with a HUGE $14.76 ROI with those.  The all-Russian jockey-trainer team was winning at 19% with a $4.63 ROI.  I doubled the bet.  The gates opened and immediately he was squeezed by the horses to his inside and outside....oh no.  But the rider smartly took him inside to save ground.  Moving into the turn he was in position to score!  But he had no where to run, he was behind a wall of five runners.  Finally a seam opened on the rail and he was on the move.  At the 1/8th pole while in full stride when the hole suddenly closed and the jockey had to take him up sharply, then had to shift him outside four paths....and he found his stride again and accelerated towards the winner.  But it was not enough, second.  I think had he not had the troubled start and especially the trip he's the winner and I cash for over $70.  In the next on the list, Diversity Harbor was my pick in a MSW for 3-year-olds going down the hill at Santa Anita.  Gary Stevens was on board and as they hit the final turn he was last and going nowhere.  But once they'd crossed the dirt it was like a light clicked on.  Stevens moved him from the rail to the far outside, about eight paths out, and let him go.  In what the HRTV columnists called a "breathtaking turn of foot" he exploded by the entire field and won by five widening lengths without Stevens ever raising the stick.  An amazing win, at better yet at better than 5/1. The $13 payoff netted over $30 to the cause.  Right back for the same trainer-ownership (Tom Proctor & Glen Hill Farms) with Stevens again Chelios went right to the front in full control.  At the top of the lane he opened up like something special.  And when a late runner came flying Stevens confidently just shook the reigns and he was clear on the wire!  I missed in the Clocker's Corner - also down the hill - in Santa Anita's feature and the last race on my sheet.  When I did compile the numbers, that troubled run by Fable cost me the even balance sheet on the day.  Had Highestmaintanence won and any other runner of the many, many short-price favorites scored it would have been a big day! 

For the week, in spite of today, I still had a very big week: 

59/ 21-9-5 .... 36% WINNING Average ...... $2.27 ROI ...... Profit of over $80!

Check out the highlight video of today's "Day at the Races" below.

Day 34

A BIG Day at Gulfstream!

Solid Profit For The Day With 40% WINS!

The original idea had been to head to Gulfstream for the first few races, get the promotional long-sleeve t-shirt for Holy Bull Day, and making bets for the afternoon's races before heading to a Jeff Dunham comedy show at the BB & T Center.  But Kim's eye change all that and we went to the doctor in mid-afternoon to find out she had been such a great patient that her eye is "fixed!"  Back on Monday to have it sealed with a laser treatment and she should be well on her way to 100% recovery.  So, the racing was played online and viewed on HRTV.  Today was Holy Bull and Forward Gal Stakes Day at Gulfstream and marked the first step on the road to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks.  Out west it was Sunshine Millions-California Day so I handicapped that card; and I found a "BEST" bet at Calder. 

In the opener at Gulfstream I like Wild Billium in a nw3L event over the turf.  IF he could run one of his "A" races he'd be the winner.  He was under the care of Chad Brown and was dropping in class, and that had produced 71% winners over the past two winters.  He made a good move up the rail to the lead turning for home, but could not sustain it and finished third at 3/1.  In the second I like Lay It Down who was coming into the race first off the claim for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  Those guys are lethal together and frequently jockey Julian Leparoux rides well for them (but rarely for me).  This seemed to be very effective at this level and by running for less than $40K that was a Gulfstream 40% Club angle.  I was surprised that the crowd let him go off at 5/2 when I thought he was a pretty obvious favorite.  He stalked a 99-1 longshot while clear of the rest of the field to the turn.  Then Leparoux asked him to run and he took the lead.  The 8/5 favorite rallied to within a length but Lay It Down had another gear and spurted clear to score! 

The $7.40 payoff led to almost $40 to me!  Another great start to a racing day.  Next up was a Maiden Special for sophomores sprinting six furlongs on the main trak.  Yes, there was a Pletcher colt, so Anchor Down was the automatic play for me.  He broke slowly and it looked like top rider Javier Castellano was working hard to get him even interested in running. As they hit the turn he still seemed to be spinning his wheels and needing pushing.  But suddenly he seemed to find himself and he accelerated immediately.  He picked off horses one by one in rapid order and by mid-stretch it was clear he was going to roll to victory, which he did as MUCH the best.  Impressive and professional the way he finished. 

In the 4th I wrote in my analysis that this would be one of "those" races where we'd look back and say the field was loaded with stakes winners.  Everyone was all over the Shug McGaughey runner Top Billing, not only as the winner here but as a Kentucky Derby candidate.  I wasn't convinced and didn't even have him in my top three.  Surfing USA from the Pletcher barn was my pick and he set sail on the front end and seemed to have the field at his disposal, especially with Top Billing in the back of the field.  I thought, "how smart am I" because you can't win from the back going the 8 1/2 furlongs here because of the alternate finish line which is halfway up the stretch!  But as they hit the turn Top Billing was flying from the back.....did Surfing USA have enough to hold him off?  Not even close.  I was a clear best-of-the-rest but Top Billing was ultra-impressive in victory.  He'll be in stakes company next time out.  I was back in the winner's circle in the 5th when racing moved to the turf.  It was a nw2x event and my top choice was Abtaal.  I thought he might be a fair price as he was making his first North American start today, so you had to wonder about his ability.  Not me!  Like many I consider Euro turf runners superior to their American rivals.  Abtaal had won a Group 3 and beaten half the field home in a Group 1 event.  That would make him a good fit at a Grade 2 event here, and give him a big class edge in an allowance field like this.  He had not been out since 2012 but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin wins with 18% of his long layoff types and 33% of his first-time-North American runners.  Add in the 32% win average with his first-time-Lasix horses and you can see why I supported him.  He trailed through very moderate fractions of :25 and change and :48.3.  But as they hit the far turn he was rolling.  He had to go five wide through the turn and into the lane, but he was gobbling up ground and was flying down the middle of the course in mid-stretch.  He overhauled the leaders and cleared late to score .... my third winner of the day! 

The 3/1 post-time odds and $8 payoff allowed me to collect another $40 payoff!  WOW it's been a great week and a great day so far.  In the 6th it was another Maiden Special for 3-year-olds and I had another Pletcher runner. Holy Wildcat went off at 5/1 and like Anchor Down he trailed early.  He too was flying late, but too late to catch the 7/1 winner.  The seventh was my "BET OF THE DAY" in the Grade 2 Forward Gal.  I loved Todd Pletcher's Onlyforyou, who'd already won once here as my "Best" that day.  She only had five rivals to dispose of and I probably would have gone much deeper on the investment had I been at the races. I just have a thing about going $50 (or more) online.  And then the DRF preview video saw Mike Beer say he wasn't convinced she was as talented as everyone thought.  Still I was convinced, so I stuck with my plan of investing $30.  She looked to track the #1 and take over into the lane.  But when that filly broke a little behind the field, Onlyforyou was loose on the lead.  The third choice was tracking her and as they turned for home that one had come to the favorite's neck.  I said out loud, "OK, show me you are as good as I thought you were..." and at that moment Javier Castellano shook the reins and she was LONG GONE!  T

exiting earlier in the day my buddy Keith had asked what kind of price we'd get and I said if we were lucky enough to get 2/5 it would be "Gulfstream Give-Away Money Day" so I was very content with the 1/5 final odds.  Another $40 payout.  I passed the 8th and in the ninth my pick, Calm Waters was nowhere to be found.  Next up was my BEST of the Day at Calder.  I had seen Evolution Rocks run at Gulfstream in December.  I had gone to the track to watch and wager on Pletcher's rising star, Zaikov.  But as they turned into the lane that one was having a tough time running down the leader......Evolution Rocks!  At the furlong marker the star flashed his talent and blew by to win with authority, but Evolution Rocks was clearly the best of the rest.  So when he showed up in the listed Thrillin Discovery Stakes he looked TONS the best to me.  Just as I'd envisioned it he broke on top and never looked back. 

He paid a fair $3.20 and I cashed for over $30!  In Santa Anita's Grade 2 Santa Monica I thought Teddy's Promise looked best, and she'd won this race last year.  I was also pulling for her emotionally as it was slated as her final career race and with a win she'd become a racing millionaire.  She surged to the front after the firt quarter mile and was in front turning for home, but could not hold on...third.  Next up was the highly anticipated Grade 2 Holy Bull, the first step on the road to the Florida Derby and the then the Kentucky Derby.  I told Kim that if it wasn't the graded feature I might not have bet at all but I like to try and win these kind of events.  I thought that the field was evenly matched but I gave Cairo Prince the edge.  He'd been a game second to highly regarded Honor Code in the Grade 2 Remsen.  I thought if he were able to move forward off that race he'd be the winner.  Not sure about him as my Florida Derby horse, but today he looked best.  Cairo Prince was bet down to 6/5 at one point, which I thought was too short but he floated up to 9/5 and an even higher and better 2/1 as they broke from the gate.  He stalked the lead, wide - but as I told Kim when she asked - but in the clear which is where you want to be if you think you have the best horse.  He had to run wide into the lane but when jockey Luis Saez gave him his cue he exploded to win very impressively! 

The $6.20 payoff got me another $30!  I thought I had the winner in the finale when Charade rallied through the stretch, but he was nailed on the wire at 2/1.  I didn't score with any of my other four Santa Anita races so for the day I finished with six wins from fifteen selections, an even 40% for the day and more than $40 in profits.  For the week I'm winning at nearly 50% and I'm up over $150!  Looking forward to being on track tomorrow with picks from six tracks.  The temperatures are supposed to be in the high 70s and there is a chance my best pal from Cypress Bay High, Jeff Nelson might be there.  Could be a great way to finish the racing week!

Day 33

60% WINS!  Another BIG Day!

And the winning just continues....it was a second really good day of handicapping at Gulfstream on Friday which produced a profit of over $60 for the second consecutive day.  On a personal level the day was worrisome as Kim had to have an out-patient procedure on her eye for a "torn retina."  I had originally planned to go to Gulfstream today to enjoy the weather and get our Florida Derby tickets.  But that was obviously put on hold.  I did call about the tickets - we now have a group of 28 going - and was told that at this time I can only get my guaranteed ten tickets; I'll have to wait until probably the second week of February to get the others.  On to the racing.......in the opener by double investment scratched and I was tempted to go with my second choice, but as I re-read through my analysis I was reminded I was against the favorite, and sure enough he went down at odds of 1/5!  In the second my top selection was 3/5 and my second choice was 13/1....the big price runner came flying thru the lane to nearly catch the winner and I'd nailed the exacta - but no bet.  And then came the third.  In this seven furlong claiming event I liked Tarpy's Goal.  In races at seven furlongs I had learned long ago that one key angle is to look for horses who have shown an affinity to this unique elongated sprint distance.  And that was the first thing that jumped off the pp's about my pick....he was 2-for-3 at today's distance.  It was also interesting that he'd won HERE before at the distance with a big Beyer figure.  Check out his pp's, do you see the pattern? 

That big figure had come when he was second off the layoff.....like today.  But then I noticed the other angle.....in January 2012 he came off a layoff and ran in a turf sprint, and was beaten a little more than five lengths.  In his race prior to today, he had come off a layoff, run in a turf sprint, and was beaten five lengths.  Too much of a coincidence for me.  I also liked the drop in class today.  I doubled the bet - he was a nice 5/1 in the program.  When they left the gate he was nearly that at 7/2.  He stalked the pace, running a race very similar to the Jan 2012 effort and drew off late, just like that day! 

I cashed for almost $50 and it's a great start to my Friday!  In the 4th I tripled the investment on Steffi in a non-winners of two lifetime.  She had just been claimed by Michael Maker for Ken & Sarah Ramsey....a very high percentage play.  AND Maker was a 40% winner over the past two winters when dropping his horses in class.  She went off at even money but ran evenly throughout to finish fifth.  Disappointing.  But that did not last too long as I scored again in the 5th.  Several things led me to believe that All Tied Up would be a short priced favorite.  First he was trained by Todd Pletcher.  Second he'd paired up speed figures in his last two.  I've often found that when that happens, it is a sign of impending improvement.  And frequently this occurs when those two races are separated by a break.....All Tied Up had earned a 75 over the Aqueduct turf in November and then matched that number with a better than it looks fifth here.  I also liked the fact that this recent effort, as a three-year-old had nearly matched his juvenile best.  Another sign of a step up in performance.  And finally, one of Pletcher's GP 40% Club angles is that he wins with a huge 49% of his runners making their second start of the meet!  Somehow the crowd let this gut go off at what I thought was an inflated price of 5/2.  We were going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf and as they moved down the backstretch he was towards the back.  Then he began picking off horses approaching the turn.  He was five wide through the turn and into the stretch but had all the momentum as he swept by and drew clear late to WIN! 

The $7 pay off on a Pletcher runner was amazing, and it added another $35 into my bankroll.  I'm certain to make another profit on the day!  In the ninth I had another good price at 7/1 on Chairman Gary.  I can't say that he'd have won, but it didn't help matters that he was blocked through the turn and when there was an opening down the lane he was no longer full of run.  But he was a good fourth.  The final play of the day was my "Bet of the Day!  I knew that Mr. Online would be odds-one, but he looked REALLY strong in this spot.  The last race today was on the turf going one mile.  It was a starter optional claiming event with racing conditions restricting entries to those who had run for a $25K claiming price.  Well, Mr. Online had won a $25K claiming event back in July.  He then went on to win a nw2x allowance race, finish second by a neck to 20-time stakes winner Ben's Cat in a $100K stakes race, run second in a GRADE 1, and then win a nw3x allowance before in his last he took the $100K El Prado Stakes here!  WOW was he over-qualified or what!  On class alone he was a standout.  In addition his last FOUR BEYERS, 97-89-89-97 were better than anything anyone in the field had run in two years with once exception.  The two who had earned an 89 in 2012 had not run anything like that since and the one who had matched it recently had never run out of the 70's until he upset win-machine Major Marvel (as my best bet) earlier this month.  All this added up to this.....the fastest horse, with the most class was my pick and he could very likely wind up all alone on the lead!  Jockey Kevin Carmouche was smart enough to let a longshot gun to the lead and he tracked the pace well in front of the rest of the field.  He glided up on the turn then let Mr. Online go and it was ALL OVER!  He romped home as much the best and SHOULD have been 2/5 or so on the tote board, but instead the crowd had let him go at even money!

Oh My, are you serious?  I had doubled my money with as close to a "sure thing" as there could be!  And he didn't pay just $4.00, he paid the additional click to $4.20, so I cashed for another $42 and my winnings ballooned to $62 on the day while winning 3-of-5 races.  So for the week I have nailed SEVEN of twelve and profited almost $125.  What a great start to the week!

Day 32

A  B-I-G  Day To Start The Week

Boom - Boom - POW!

Coming off the long six day handicapping week, and the excellent results I was glad to get a couple of days to "freshen" before starting back on the handicapping trail today.  The "time off" paid big dividends as I scored FOUR times today, including both "Best" bets of the day.  Even though I passed on the opener by top pick won!  Then in the second I liked Do Not Enter who was sent off as the 4/5 favorite.  He tracked the leaders to the stretch, but ran evenly to the wire, third. 

The second race was the first of my two "best" plays on the day.  And you can tell how much I must have liked this horse when I tell you I went AGAINST a Todd Pletcher horse who had GP 40% Club angles going for him!  My pick was Trading Secrets who was coming out of the Jorge Navarro barn, and they've been on fire the entire meet.  The Pletcher horse was Tizracer but I did not like him at all because in his latest he was dropped into a claiming spot for the first time and it was also a nw2L like this.  A Pletcher horse making that kind of drop SHOULD win....instead he didn't run any faster than when in allowance company and was solidly beaten when second.  I saw no upside in him.  Where as Trading Secrets was coming first off the claim, a sharp 48% winning angle for Navarro with a big $2.60 ROI!  AND, he was making a surface switch from turf to dirt, another big winning angle for the barn - 46% for an even bigger $3.12 ROI!  I thought he not only looked much the best, but would be a more than fair price.  Trading Secrets was right up on the front and dueled from the gate through the first six furlongs into the turn.  As they came out of the turn he forged to the lead and Tizracer was gaining momentum four wide.  But that one flattened out and my top pick went on to the wire to score!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

He had taken some money late and went off at 2/1, but the $6.60 payoff was terrific....with my triple investment returned nearly $50!  NICE!  I didn't like anyone in the 4th, but I had a nice price play in the fifth.  It was a starter-optional claiming on the turf at a flat mile.   likd Take Off Your Hat who had just broken out of the maiden ranks last time out.  What le me to her was that she had the best come-home time fraction AND there looked to be at least four in the field that would want the lead or would press the leader.  She left the gate at a nice 5/1 price.  She tracked the dueling leaders on the rail into the turn.  She had no where to go, except to wait for an opening on the rail.  Finally when the field spun out of the turn a narrow opening appeared along the rail and jockey Luis Saez sent her through.  She accelerated to the front and then held off the closers on the outside to WIN!  HORRAY!!!!!! 

The price was a generous $12.40, and I cashed for over $30!  I am now guaranteed to win for make a profit for the day!  But I was far from done yet.  In the very next race I had a Chad Brown filly, Texas Zip dropping out of a Maiden Special race into this $75K seller.  Brown is a Gulfstream Park 40% Club member with a gigantic 71% win rate with class droppers.  Jockey Alan Garcia sent her right to the front and she had no challengers so Garcia "walked the dog" through pedestrian fractions of :25 and :51....the field would have little chance catching any front-runner with those kind of pace figures, much less a Chad Brown class dropper.  It was a little closer than I would have thought it would be after that controlled pace, but a winner is a winner!  My THIRD WIN OF THE DAY! 

The $5.80 payout resulted in nearly $30 added to my winnings!  I am having a great day!  My top pick in the 7th was a Team Calabrese runner who was 2/1.  But Ishka was never in the race and was a disappointing 6th.  The 8th race was my second "best" of the day, and Speechify figured to be short odds.  She laid over the field in every which way but one.... the barn was a weak 3-for-31.  But as I wrote in my analysis, I was going to bet the horse.  And it was curious that it was an allowance race with the conditions of nw3L - most of the time it's a non-winners of.....allowance races.  In his first two races at Gulfstream Speechify had blown away the competition with big speed figures.  In his last he was turning back from a one mile experiment to a sprint.  He'd pressed the fastest fractions he'd ever run and while he didn't win, he was a field best-of-the-rest second over three lengths in front of the show runner.  He was sent off as the 3/5 favorite under Joel Rosario who pressed the leader from the outside to the far turn.  Rosario let him go and it was all over......LONG gone under a hand ride!  My FOURTH WIN of the day! 

The payoff netted me a return of nearly $25.  In the finale I had an upset pick - #11 Slews Golden Rule who I thought would steal it under Joe Bravo.  At 12/1 in the program he was a good bet.  Bravo took him back to mid-pack but rallied strongly......not enough late, but a good 6/1 second.  So for the day I won four of seven, a big 57% win average....and better yet a big profit of over $60!  An EXCELLENT way to start the week!

Day 31

PHOTO FINISH!

Yes, the day's stories are dominated by one photo finish after another and was "highlighted" by not one, not two, not three but FOUR runner-up finishes.  Sigh......However I scored with one photo and cashed on my "BET of the DAY!"  The first play of the day came in the second race, a maiden claimer for older horses on the turf.  My pick was Exceed the Limit who had one of the better riders, Paco Lopez, but came from a low percentage barn.  Still of the 78 races run by the field only four figures had hit the 60 plateau.  And THREE of those were owned by my pick, the program favorite.  As they turned for home she was narrowly in front, but she could not seal the deal.  On the wire it was very close, and officially a PHOTO FINISH, but I was awfully certain Exceed the Limit was in front on the wire. 

It was official and I'd started the day back in the winner's circle!  In the very next race I doubled the bet on Who's In Town and felt fortunate she went off as the second choice and not the favorite at odds of 9/5.  She had actually "won" the Grade 2 Adirondack at Saratoga this past summer, but was disqualified by the stewards.  I thought she held a big edge over the field.  As they came out of the turn she moved four wide and surged to the lead.  She was clear at the 1/8th pole, but working hard to reach for the wire.  When a 17/1 late runner began making up ground I felt pretty certain that one could not get to us, but it was desperately close on the line.....PHOTO FINISH!   I watched the slo-mo replays and felt fairly sure I'd won. It took several minutes to determine the outcome, and then it was official - my filly was second.  BOOOOOOO.  Right back in the 5th going a one-turn mile and again I had what I thought was a fair price when Texas Tex went off at 2/1.  He made his move between horses and surged to the front, only to be confronted at the furlong pole by another and they dueled to the wire.....PHOTO FINISH AGAIN!  Again I thought I'd won.  But again after examining the official photo I was ruled to be second again.  WOW....how many close finish-losses can I be involved in? 

In the 6th I had class dropping Harbor Miss in a maiden claiming event.  She was checked at the start and never recovered.....7th at 2/1.  Then in the 7th I had what looked like a very solid pick.  Scenario Analysis as he dropped into a claiming race for the first time in his career, and it was a "beaten" claimer at that.  Chad Brown, his trainer has won with class dropping runners at an amazing 71% over the last two winters, so it was no surprise he left the gate as the 3/2 favorite.  He stalked the leader comfortably, moved to the lead and opened up heading for home.  But much like Who's In Town earlier, he was being pushed hard by the rider to get home.  Here came a closer......couldn't resist him and was clearly beaten, another second.  Sigh....... In the 8th it was my "BET of the DAY" in a Maiden Special for three-year-old fillies.  The Todd Pletcher filly Gala Award was my pick.  The reason for upping the investment from the standard double bet came down to these facts:  (a) she had run a big race in her debut to be second over the turf here; (b) she was trained by Todd Pletcher who has won at a big 49% with his second time starters at the meet over the last two winters; and (c) today's rider was the "comeback kid," Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens who was in town to ride Sunshine Millions Classic Champion Mucho Macho Man on Saturday.  I think this final angle was what got the win for me.  Gala Award went to the front and was comfortably in front.  As they turned for home Stevens pushed her through a stretch duel, but at the 16th pole she looked to be fading.  Then Stevens pushed her again, he'd saved just a little for the final 100 yards and she re-rallied to WIN!  WHOOO HOOO! 

I was hoping to get a more fair price off her 3/1 program odds, but handicappers are a smart crowd and sent her off at even money.  I had one more race with a bet, the finale which was a nw2L on the turf.  My pick was Nickerdoodle.  She was making her first start in conditioned company and unlike most of her rivals she was lightly raced - not yet proven to be a loser.  She was a very fair 5/2 as they left the gate.  She was behind the field coming from post ten, but the jockey got her to the rail quickly to save ground.  As they headed up the backstretch he made his move inside and was following horses.  But as they hit the far turn he could not let her run as she was blocked behind a wall of horses.  A hole appeared, but she was quickly steadied.  Change of course, moved FIVE wide and was F-L-Y-I-N-G on the outside.......too little, too late, second AGAIN!

Today brought down a LONG week of six consecutive days of racing and handicapping.  I'm glad for management not coming right back with a Wednesday card, but waiting until Thursday to get back into action.  I reviewed my selections over this extended period of time and was pleased with the way I'd responded ..... 

24 WINS from 69 Selections

34.7% WIN Average and 76.8% In-The-Money

ROI = $2.12

Just as a reminder to my readers.....if a handicapper can get a return of $1.80 to $1.90 for every $2 bet, he's a pretty good handicapper.  But if you can get $1.91 or better you are better than 93% of your fellow handicappers.  Over $2 is virtually unheard of....well done Mr. Mark!



Day 30

And The Favorites Go Down - Down - Down

I had FIVE favorites go down today dampening the enthusiasm from the big day on Saturday.  In the second I selected what I thought would be the lone speed in Joe's Blazing Aaron.  As a three-year-old he had wired a graded stakes here in an upset.  Recently he'd set the pace in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Belmont.  So today's high-priced claiming event looked to be a nice spot for a confidence-building win.  Right out of the gate though I knew there was going to be trouble as a longshot sprinted to the lead forcing Joe to sit back off the speed.  He looked to be comfortably "leading" the field and took the lead coming out of the turn.  But he had no response to the late closers and finished third as the 8/5 favorite.  In the very next race Band of Joy looked to have a HUGE edge over this nw1x field.  He was coming off two big speed figures in his first two tries sprinting on the turf and was making his first start for top trainer Todd Pletcher.  All the HRTV analysts were all over him as an obvious choice and the crowd sent him off as the 3/5 favorite.  But he broke slowly, then was steadied in traffic......sigh.....he made a big late run, but to no avail, another third.  In the 4th Dubh was the even money favorite after being claiming by Team Calabrese.  First off the claim runners have won at a big 43% rate.....but not this one, second.  WOW.  FINALLY into the winner's circle in the 6th. 

It was a Maiden Special Weight for sophomores, and there was the Pletcher filly was the obvious choice for me.  She looked ready to fire in her debut today off two recent sharp works, one of which was a bullet over the deep Palm Meadows training track.  Typically Pletcher first time starters burst out of the gate and discourage the field with a quick move to the lead.  But Sloane Square was unhurried early and found herself some seven lengths behind in the back of the pack.  This was especially worrisome for me because the distance of the race was a short 5 1/2 furlongs.  Top rider Javier Castellano saved ground into the turn and then swung FIVE WIDE into the lane.  Things didn't look good, but then she accelerated with a devastating kick and blew by the field to win going away! 

I thought, "...here we go!..." based on how I'd been winning this past week.  The next race on my sheet was the featured Kitten's Joy Stakes for three-year-olds.  My top two runners were We Miss Artie from the Pletcher barn, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and the up and coming star, Stormin Inti from the Chad Brown barn.  They went off as co-favorites and Stormin Inti went to the front to set the pace.  'Artie tracked him to the turn and launched his bid.  By the time heads were turned for home the two of them had separated themselves from the field and were dueling.  At the 8th pole it looked like 'Arite might go on by, but Inti would have none of it as he battled back on the rail.  Heads up and down it would come down to who's bob was on the wire.  I watched the slo-mo replay several times and I really thought I'd won......nope, second in an oh-so-close photo.  

No time to cry over spilled milk as my "BEST" of the day was in the finale.  Subtle was CLEARLY the one to beat with her last four turf sprints had yielded three wins and a just-miss second.  She'd paired 90 speed figures in her last two and those were BOTH ten points better than any lifetime best earned by anyone in the field.  She was coming off a layoff, but had twice won off the shelf for trainer Jason Servis, who had a 27% overall winning average with fresh horses.  EVERYONE was on board and sent her off at 1/5.  She was in mid-pack early, got to third as they came out of the turn.....but then slowly but surely dropped farther and farther back until she was 8th and last.  NOT the way I'd forseen the day ending.  The good news though.....we don't have to wait until mid-week to get back on track as there is special holiday racing tomorrow on Martin Luther King Day! 

Day 29

Sunshine Millions Day

What A Great Day At The Races!

OK, so maybe it wasn't like last week in terms of amazing winning percentages or profit, but is was a G-R-E-A-T racing day adventure.  And I got to share it with my father-in-law, Ed, who had a wonderful day as well!  It's a long tale filled with great stories.....let's get started!  The stories start before we even got into the facility.  I knew that there would be a crowd today, so I wanted to beat the crowd and get our seats, get settled and be ready for the action well in advance.  So Ed and I pulled into the Gulfstream entrance at 11:55, some 45 minutes before the first post.  As we rounded the corner I could see that there were cars parked all the way to the end of the lot and seemingly looked full;  to our right was the small, auxiliary parking lot which is NEVER used and there were parking attendants waving cars into the lot.  That's odd I thought, and as I went to turn into the major parking area, because I just KNEW there had to be some parking spots I was very surprised to see cars lining up to drive OUT of the parking lot and headed to the auxiliary lot.....what is going on?  It took less than a lap to get it, we needed to park in the remote lot or there would be NO PARKING at all!  We got a spot and had a good hike to the facility and got our tickets.  By the time we were in our seats it was less than fifteen minutes to post time so we made our first bets and settled into our seats for RACING!

In the opener at Gulfstream it was a Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-olds.  YES, there was a Todd Pletcher colt.  The only "catch" was that this was a turf route, and as I wrote in my analysis, "......Pletcher's "weakest" winning category is turf routes, note that he "only " wins at a 30% clip!  Best of all because he's not as effective you can often get a fair price on Pletcher turf maidens....."  As per usual I doubled the bet.  Divine Oath battled from just off the pace to the far turn and then engaged the front runner.  By the head of the lane he'd put that one away but was immediately confronted by a stalker and the two dueled through the lane.  At the furlong marker Divine Oath began to falter, but at the sixteenth pole he fought back and on the wire he was the WINNER! 

Now you'd figure as a Pletcher colt he had to be the favorite or at least a short price.  Nope, here's the best part of this story, he paid $9.60 and I cashed for nearly $50 to start the day!  WHOOO HOOOO!  I went inside as soon as they crossed the finish line and they were approaching the gate in New York.  It was a Maiden Special for sophomores.  U.S.S. O'Brien had been beaten not once, not twice, but THREE TIMES and as the short-priced favorite!  Still, in this particular field he looked like a stand out.  Again I doubled the investment.  Right to the front, never threatened and won going away!  Two-for-two to start the day.  I was surprised, as I'm sure anyone who's been reading my journals over the past ten days must be, when I did NOT win the next race on my sheet!  It was a Calder turf event and I thought Prime Devil would wire the field, but he was beaten to the front and when asked to come after the leader he had no response....7th.  Back to live action at Gulfstream where the 2nd was another turf route maiden claimer for 3-year-olds.  This time I was backing the Chad Brown-trained Shakesperian Dream.  She had the turf breeding, was trained by excellent turf-trainer Christophe Clement and ridden by Jose Lezcano who's one of the best turf riders at the meet; and these two click at a 35% win rate.  As I wrote in my analysis, my only concern was with the bloodlines and being a daughter of a Grade 1 turf champion (who'd I'd won several times with), why was she debuting for a claiming tag, and a lowly $35K tag at that?  Shakesperian Dream sat well back to the far bid then launched her bid.  She quickly gobbled up ground and passed everyone but the leader as they entered the stretch.  Despite having the length of the lane to get back she couldn't seal the deal and was second at 6/5 odds.  My "best" of the day at Calder was next, but Kodiak Kody scratched :(  So, I had a break until the third at Gulfstream. 

This turf route, an allowance-optional claiming for non-winners of one, other than, was my UPSET PICK of the DAY!  My top choice was Gathering who was an amazing 10/1 in the program.  I had visions of making a super score because not only did she look good on paper to me, but I had a history with this filly!  On April 6 of last spring it was opening day at Calder and as such the first day of my summer racing season.  There was a turf route, a nw1x allowance that day at Keeneland in which Gathering was entered.  She was making her first North American start and based on her first few races in Europe she looked like a standout that day.  She sat off the pace and then exploded by the field with a devastating turn of foot.  Off that effort she made her next start a month later in the Grade 3 Bewitched, as the favorite!  Instead of closing from the back she was up on the pace that day - go figure - and faded badly.  She went to the shelf where she stayed until today.  Today she towered over these if able to reproduce her best - and since that had come when coming off a layoff, and because this was an allowance test like that one, I thought she'd do just that.  The fact that there were not any solid threats in the field helped my confidence.  I doubled the bet thinking I would probably get 7 or 8 to 1 odds.  But before the fillies and mares hit the track for the post parade she was hammered down to 5/2 favoritism.  Really?  Finally at post time she'd floated up to 3/1, and I had actually written in my analysis that odds of 3/1 or above would be a gift.  Just like the April 6 run she sat back, accelerated on the turn and BLEW by the field to score under wraps.  WHOOO HOOOO! 

 

My second win at Gulfstream, at my second at a nice price.  The $8 payoff netted me another $40!  Much like the first Gulfstream win I had to hustle to get inside for a play in New York.  And much like the first bet at Aqueduct, the fourth was also a MSW for sophomores, and yes, it was another Pletcher runner!  In her debut she had distanced herself from her seven rivals by NINE widening lengths!  The problem was she was 14 lengths behind the runaway winner!  WOW.  She was fresh today and I thought she was a solid fit.  She sat just off the leaders, made her move on the turn and surged to the lead.  Now, she didn't accelerate to the wire like she has special talent, but in work-woman-like fashion she kept to the task and was clear on the wire to provide me with my fourth winner of the day!  I missed at Tampa and at Gulfstream - second in the local with another Pletcher 3-year-old maiden special on the turf.  Global Strike sat just off the pace setter, set sail coming out of the turn and took command and then the winner blew by from the back of the field to win going away.  Not to worry, the next winner on the sheet was just one line down and it was my New York BEST of the DAY.  Last Saturday Marriedtothemusic was my "best" in New York, but after the opening race of the day the rest of the card had been cancelled due to rain and fog.  So here she was again.  Her last four speed figures, ranging from 88 to 99, would all easily win today.  My only concern was because I'd seen Andy Sterling, a NY analyst, remark last week in his pre-race card analysis that he was concerned that all those races had come at Saratoga; and that many horses have a fondness for that track but do NOT repeat the same kind of efforts at Belmont or Aqueduct.  Still, she looked tons the best and I was willing to back up my opinion with an ultra-prime-time investment, $30 to WIN!  She looked like the clear speed of the race and if I was right she'd burst to the lead and never look back.  The gates popped open, she was in front by four lengths before they completed the opening quarter mile and was G-O-N-E!  SCORE! 

Even though she was a short price, I willingly accepted the near $50 return on my bet as confirmation of my handicapping analysis.  As I've often said, sometimes it's even more rewarding to be right with the big bets, because I've "put my money where my mouth is" than to make a profit on the day.  Marriedtothemusic crossed the finish line at about 2:25 pm an it wasn't until close to 4 pm that I cashed my next ticket!  At the Fair Grounds my pick at a nice 4/1 went VERY wide into the lane and just missed to be second.  Fourth on the Calder turf as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite :(  Then it was the first of the Sunshine Millions Day stakes races, the Distaff.  My top pick was My Pal Chrisy who was cross-entered for the Filly & Mare Sprint.  I wanted her to go in that spot because I thought she had a better chance there and if she did I thought the Distaff would feature a very solid play in Toasting.  Sure enough Chrisy scratched and I tripled the bet on Toasting.  She was coming into this spot off a head loss in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct and looked not only the class of the field, but to benefit from a projected speed duel.  Unfortunately I ignored the Todd Pletcher filly who had also cross-entered in the F & M Sprint to go here.....to be fair Sweet N Discreet had never gone two turns, much less 1 1/8 miles like today's race, so who knew?  She won at a big price.  Disappointing to have missed that....but as they crossed the finish line I looked up from my spot on the rail and Ed gave me the thumbs up, HE HAD IT!  I could read his lips when he said, "I had the exacta!"  Oh, that should be nice, I thought, with a 3/1 over the second choice with Toasting out of the exacta.  I went inside to watch my next runner from Tampa.  The prices came up and for $2 Exacta box ($12), the payoff was $12.60.  That's just not right.....Ed hit the exacta, left and got the two best prices and he made a mere $.60.  Wow.  4th at Tampa when I gave up the ghost after leading all the way to the far turn; 6th at the Fair Grounds with the 8/5 favorite under top rider Rosie Napravnik....wow Rosie.  In the SSM Filly & Mare Turf I loved Wishing Gate with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens in to ride for top west coast conditioner Tom Proctor.  Stevens, before his retirement and since his return, has been a steady and successful partner for Tom Proctor and Glen Hill Farms.  She'd run graded top efforts in graded events so I thought was an excellent spot for her.  Stevens had her just off the pace to the far turn, asked her for run and she made a challenge for the lead, but then flattened out through the stretch and was a well-beaten fifth.  Silver Antelope came FLYING from the back of the field at Oaklawn, but only good enough to be third.  Next at the Fair Grounds was the Louisiana Handicap and I loved Prayer for Relief.  He is a proven graded stakes runner, who had struggled at the end of 2013, but scored with authority a month in the prep for this race, the Tenacious Handicap at a nice price - when I had him.  Nearly the same field and he looked to be much the best on paper.  He was my Fair Grounds "Best".....stalked the leaders, they turned for home and Rosie asked him......nothing.  He ran evenly and it was on class alone that he finished third as the 3/5 chalk.  Sigh........Next was the SSM Filly & Mare Sprint, and my double investment on My Pal Chrisy.  She fit like a glove here with a projected speed duel certain to develop between at least two of three "need to lead" runners.  Ullapool had won the Garland Roses, with my investment, last out when it also had looked like a speed duel would develop, but she looked much quicker than the others that day and handily wired the field.  Unfortunately for her today was local sprint star R Free Roll who was ultra quick and went gate to final jump in the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl.....I knew she'd be on the lead as well. And on the outside was Classic Point who had set the pace in both the Honorable Miss and Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga this summer.  Because of her outside post I thought she might not be on the lead but would pressure the leaders.  All of this would set up My Pal Chrisy's late kick.  The gate latch sprung open and R Free Roll was left standing in the gate, she missed the break.  Ullapool showed her speed, and Classic Point's rider decided to rate off the pace.  All of this meant that here was Ullapool - probably the "best" of the front runners all alone on an easy lead.  My Pal Chrisy came running and in mid-stretch I thought maybe, just maybe, but no.....close, but no cigar.....second.  The last of the losing streak came at Tampa over their turf when Back Away made a bid to the lead at the to of the stretch as the 3/2 favorite but then couldn't run with the field and dropped back to a distant 5th under the wire.  Oh, it was a long 2 1/2 hours I'll say.  Still, most of my picks had been right there, so it was exciting racing and fun to watch....just no reward for my picks. 

The 6th from the Fair Grounds was next, their feature, the Grade 3 Colonel Bradley on the turf.  My top choice was Daddy Nose Best.  He was the class of the field and had won the prep for this.  But he is a D-E-E-P closer who's chances are determined not only by a fair pace up front but also by having racing luck to weave through the field.  I only went in for the minimum and as the field turned for home I was glad.  He was still dead last, on the rail and had the entire field in front of him.  But, top rider Rosie Napravnik gave him the "GO" sign as she guided him outside for clear run.  A good rider knows when and where to put their mount into gear and Rosie knew how long the Fair Grounds stretch was, that she had plenty of time if he was good enough.  Daddy immediately switched to another gear and blew by horses one after another....could he get there in time?  Even with 100 yards to go I would have sold you my ticket, but Rosie had it timed perfectly, head down on the wire to WIN!  I didn't care that he was the favorite or that I only had the minimum on him....I was just delighted to break the streak of losers and get back into the winning circle!

At Santa Anita I thought Julio's Gold had a chance to wire the field an she went right to the front, coasting along.  But with a front-runner you need to have a spurt at the top of the lane to clear the field one last time, and she was confronted on the turn.  She drew away from the longshot, but when the best closer came running she didn't have enough left and was second.  In the Sunshine Millions Turf I like Tune Me In, at a big 7/1.  But he broke poorly, rushed up and had nothing left.  At Aqueduct in their finale it was Dave Liftin's "Best" - that is a near automatic play for me.  But My Sparky was a non-threatening third at even money.  Missed again at Santa Anita when Close to the Edge was Brad Free's "Best" was sent off at 5/2.  But she had duel from gate to wire and was a neck short of winning....2nd again. 

Finally, it was time for the first of my two "BEST" bets at Gulfstream.  I had seen, and bet on Ribo Bobo in the Claiming Crown Express a month ago and he waltzed around the track.  That turned out to be a big part of my investment/opinion.  His speed figures over his previous four races were 100, 96, 104, 102, and they were all MUCH better than those of any of his rivals, but in winning that event for me last time out his number had dropped out of the triple digit to a "lowly" 89.  That figure made him "vulnerable" to the other top contenders.  But having seen that race live I knew that he had gone right to the front without ever being asked to run hard, then had coasted along on an easy lead and had merely galloped home under a confident hand ride.  That race not only didn't take anything out of him, but I was certain he'd never been asked to run his best.  I fully expected a big effort today.  For some reason the crowd doubted him and let him go off at 6/5.  While that's a low price, he should have been 2/5 for a "fair price" based on his chances to win.  The second choice was determined to get to the front, and I'd seen an interview with the trainer and he'd said that he Ribo Bobo did not have to be on the lead.  Ribo Bobo rated perfectly, glided to the lead on the turn and blew the field away.  MUCH the best.....whooooo hoooooo! 

And with my $30 win ticket I cashed for nearly $70!  Even though this did not bring me even, I was feeling very good about myself having cashed on my first "Best" here at Gulfstream.  I was disappointed when Lasar Cat was a poor 7th as the even money favorite in the Tampa feature, a turf sprint.  But I came right back with a very big win ..... not only in the distance she won by, but in the price I got.  It was the second of three stakes races I was betting at the Fair Grounds on their "Derby Preview" card - I was in New Orleans two years ago for that day of racing!  It was the Marie Krantz Memorial on the turf and my pick was Eden Prairie.  She was breaking from post twelve, and as a front runner that could be problematic.  But it would also probably mean she'd be a better price than if drawn inside.  And the fact that top rider Rosie Napravnik was on board made me feel comfortable that she'd have the filly where she had her best chance to win.  Sure enough, Rosie had her break sharply and got her underway going for the lead immediately.  But two others were insistent to be the leader, so Rosie wisely backed off before they hit the first turn and saved ground by tucking in behind them.  On the far turn she asked for run and Prairie blew by the leaders.  The late runners began to make their moves, but it was too late, Eden Prairie was LONG GONE!  NICE!!!!!!!!!  And the best part, was she went off at 3/1 .... with my triple investment.  The $8 payoff meant I would be cashing for $60!  Very nice, especially after the long streak of non winners earlier in the day.

Next up was my BET OF THE DAY!  It was the featured Sunshine Millions Classic featuring the 2014 debut of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man.  He and I had a history, which will make you appreciate how big a deal it was to invest in him as I did.  I'd bet on him in the Grade 3 Risen Star two years ago and he won for me, but I've always been against him since because his trainer Kathy Ritvo has always struggled to win, he reflected this.  But in this very race last year he was coming off a nose defeat in the BC Classic and Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith flew in from California to ride.  So I backed him with a $50 win bet.  He was "eased" and didn't even finish.....figures I thought at the time.  To be fair it was an off track and his connections blamed the surface.  I was not convinced and when he lost his next four I thought my opinion of him was confirmed.  But then he shipped to Santa Anita to run in the prep for the Breeders' Cup and recent return-from-retirement Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens took over.  Mucho Macho Man looked awesome in winning; and then they came back to win the Breeders' Cup.  He's a different animal with Stevens on board....and he flew in to ride today.  Cap all that off with the fact that of the 237 races that his five rivals had run in their lifetime NONE of them were as fast as Mucho Macho Man's last three races!  He looked like a mortal lock.....and he ran like it! 

I didn't make a ton of money, but like I said earlier.  To have put $100 down to back my opinion of Mucho Macho Man and been proven right.  The glow of the big win, and in BOTH of my big bets was awesome.....and carried me through four misses before my final win of the day.  At Oaklawn Wildcat Angie was a dismal 11th at 3/1; then in the featured first step towards the Louisiana Derby, Gold Hawk was third at 6/5.  I had an uneasy feeling about him leading up to the race so I wisely back down the bet.  Gulsary appeared to be sitting on a win in the undercard feature at Santa Anita, the Megahertz Stakes for 3yo fillies on the grass.  Mike Smith had the mount and just needed a clear path to run down the leaders I thought.  Came running late at 8/5, but no better than third under the wire.  My final winner of the day came in the featured Pippin Stakes at Oaklawn.  Don't Tell Sophia had won this race last year and gone on to be a graded winner over the course of 2013.  She also was a "Horse-for-the-Course" with a 4/2-1-1 record and finally was coming into the race with a best of 77 workout over the track......she was obviously ready to run.  Her late running style came in handy when she was steadied out of the gate and had to take up.  But, no worries, she wants to be in the back.  She moved up down the backstretch, cruised to the lead on the turn and then sprinted home.  The margin of victory looked closer than it actually was because the rider had the field measured.  It was my Oaklawn BEST BET and I cashed for almost $30. 

In the last play of the day I thought Hear the Ghost was primed for a beg effort in Santa Anita's feature, the Grade 2 Strub Stakes.  He made his big late run, but too late....third.  For the day, TEN WINS.....a good day.  Had just ONE MORE of my added investments come home a winner I'd have made a nice profit for the day; and had I hit my normal 30%+ I also would have had a nice profit.  As I've said many times, if I cannot make a profit on the day, but come within one win of that I'm happy with my betting strategy.  Hitting my top FOUR "Best Bets" of the day also made me feel good about my selections and investing.  Check the video highlight below, especially the last thirty seconds as Ed recaps his day......7 wins from ten races, but no profit.  As I say on the video, ".....the races, you gotta love the races!...."