Day 31

PHOTO FINISH!

Yes, the day's stories are dominated by one photo finish after another and was "highlighted" by not one, not two, not three but FOUR runner-up finishes.  Sigh......However I scored with one photo and cashed on my "BET of the DAY!"  The first play of the day came in the second race, a maiden claimer for older horses on the turf.  My pick was Exceed the Limit who had one of the better riders, Paco Lopez, but came from a low percentage barn.  Still of the 78 races run by the field only four figures had hit the 60 plateau.  And THREE of those were owned by my pick, the program favorite.  As they turned for home she was narrowly in front, but she could not seal the deal.  On the wire it was very close, and officially a PHOTO FINISH, but I was awfully certain Exceed the Limit was in front on the wire. 

It was official and I'd started the day back in the winner's circle!  In the very next race I doubled the bet on Who's In Town and felt fortunate she went off as the second choice and not the favorite at odds of 9/5.  She had actually "won" the Grade 2 Adirondack at Saratoga this past summer, but was disqualified by the stewards.  I thought she held a big edge over the field.  As they came out of the turn she moved four wide and surged to the lead.  She was clear at the 1/8th pole, but working hard to reach for the wire.  When a 17/1 late runner began making up ground I felt pretty certain that one could not get to us, but it was desperately close on the line.....PHOTO FINISH!   I watched the slo-mo replays and felt fairly sure I'd won. It took several minutes to determine the outcome, and then it was official - my filly was second.  BOOOOOOO.  Right back in the 5th going a one-turn mile and again I had what I thought was a fair price when Texas Tex went off at 2/1.  He made his move between horses and surged to the front, only to be confronted at the furlong pole by another and they dueled to the wire.....PHOTO FINISH AGAIN!  Again I thought I'd won.  But again after examining the official photo I was ruled to be second again.  WOW....how many close finish-losses can I be involved in? 

In the 6th I had class dropping Harbor Miss in a maiden claiming event.  She was checked at the start and never recovered.....7th at 2/1.  Then in the 7th I had what looked like a very solid pick.  Scenario Analysis as he dropped into a claiming race for the first time in his career, and it was a "beaten" claimer at that.  Chad Brown, his trainer has won with class dropping runners at an amazing 71% over the last two winters, so it was no surprise he left the gate as the 3/2 favorite.  He stalked the leader comfortably, moved to the lead and opened up heading for home.  But much like Who's In Town earlier, he was being pushed hard by the rider to get home.  Here came a closer......couldn't resist him and was clearly beaten, another second.  Sigh....... In the 8th it was my "BET of the DAY" in a Maiden Special for three-year-old fillies.  The Todd Pletcher filly Gala Award was my pick.  The reason for upping the investment from the standard double bet came down to these facts:  (a) she had run a big race in her debut to be second over the turf here; (b) she was trained by Todd Pletcher who has won at a big 49% with his second time starters at the meet over the last two winters; and (c) today's rider was the "comeback kid," Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens who was in town to ride Sunshine Millions Classic Champion Mucho Macho Man on Saturday.  I think this final angle was what got the win for me.  Gala Award went to the front and was comfortably in front.  As they turned for home Stevens pushed her through a stretch duel, but at the 16th pole she looked to be fading.  Then Stevens pushed her again, he'd saved just a little for the final 100 yards and she re-rallied to WIN!  WHOOO HOOO! 

I was hoping to get a more fair price off her 3/1 program odds, but handicappers are a smart crowd and sent her off at even money.  I had one more race with a bet, the finale which was a nw2L on the turf.  My pick was Nickerdoodle.  She was making her first start in conditioned company and unlike most of her rivals she was lightly raced - not yet proven to be a loser.  She was a very fair 5/2 as they left the gate.  She was behind the field coming from post ten, but the jockey got her to the rail quickly to save ground.  As they headed up the backstretch he made his move inside and was following horses.  But as they hit the far turn he could not let her run as she was blocked behind a wall of horses.  A hole appeared, but she was quickly steadied.  Change of course, moved FIVE wide and was F-L-Y-I-N-G on the outside.......too little, too late, second AGAIN!

Today brought down a LONG week of six consecutive days of racing and handicapping.  I'm glad for management not coming right back with a Wednesday card, but waiting until Thursday to get back into action.  I reviewed my selections over this extended period of time and was pleased with the way I'd responded ..... 

24 WINS from 69 Selections

34.7% WIN Average and 76.8% In-The-Money

ROI = $2.12

Just as a reminder to my readers.....if a handicapper can get a return of $1.80 to $1.90 for every $2 bet, he's a pretty good handicapper.  But if you can get $1.91 or better you are better than 93% of your fellow handicappers.  Over $2 is virtually unheard of....well done Mr. Mark!