Day 29

Sunshine Millions Day

What A Great Day At The Races!

OK, so maybe it wasn't like last week in terms of amazing winning percentages or profit, but is was a G-R-E-A-T racing day adventure.  And I got to share it with my father-in-law, Ed, who had a wonderful day as well!  It's a long tale filled with great stories.....let's get started!  The stories start before we even got into the facility.  I knew that there would be a crowd today, so I wanted to beat the crowd and get our seats, get settled and be ready for the action well in advance.  So Ed and I pulled into the Gulfstream entrance at 11:55, some 45 minutes before the first post.  As we rounded the corner I could see that there were cars parked all the way to the end of the lot and seemingly looked full;  to our right was the small, auxiliary parking lot which is NEVER used and there were parking attendants waving cars into the lot.  That's odd I thought, and as I went to turn into the major parking area, because I just KNEW there had to be some parking spots I was very surprised to see cars lining up to drive OUT of the parking lot and headed to the auxiliary lot.....what is going on?  It took less than a lap to get it, we needed to park in the remote lot or there would be NO PARKING at all!  We got a spot and had a good hike to the facility and got our tickets.  By the time we were in our seats it was less than fifteen minutes to post time so we made our first bets and settled into our seats for RACING!

In the opener at Gulfstream it was a Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-olds.  YES, there was a Todd Pletcher colt.  The only "catch" was that this was a turf route, and as I wrote in my analysis, "......Pletcher's "weakest" winning category is turf routes, note that he "only " wins at a 30% clip!  Best of all because he's not as effective you can often get a fair price on Pletcher turf maidens....."  As per usual I doubled the bet.  Divine Oath battled from just off the pace to the far turn and then engaged the front runner.  By the head of the lane he'd put that one away but was immediately confronted by a stalker and the two dueled through the lane.  At the furlong marker Divine Oath began to falter, but at the sixteenth pole he fought back and on the wire he was the WINNER! 

Now you'd figure as a Pletcher colt he had to be the favorite or at least a short price.  Nope, here's the best part of this story, he paid $9.60 and I cashed for nearly $50 to start the day!  WHOOO HOOOO!  I went inside as soon as they crossed the finish line and they were approaching the gate in New York.  It was a Maiden Special for sophomores.  U.S.S. O'Brien had been beaten not once, not twice, but THREE TIMES and as the short-priced favorite!  Still, in this particular field he looked like a stand out.  Again I doubled the investment.  Right to the front, never threatened and won going away!  Two-for-two to start the day.  I was surprised, as I'm sure anyone who's been reading my journals over the past ten days must be, when I did NOT win the next race on my sheet!  It was a Calder turf event and I thought Prime Devil would wire the field, but he was beaten to the front and when asked to come after the leader he had no response....7th.  Back to live action at Gulfstream where the 2nd was another turf route maiden claimer for 3-year-olds.  This time I was backing the Chad Brown-trained Shakesperian Dream.  She had the turf breeding, was trained by excellent turf-trainer Christophe Clement and ridden by Jose Lezcano who's one of the best turf riders at the meet; and these two click at a 35% win rate.  As I wrote in my analysis, my only concern was with the bloodlines and being a daughter of a Grade 1 turf champion (who'd I'd won several times with), why was she debuting for a claiming tag, and a lowly $35K tag at that?  Shakesperian Dream sat well back to the far bid then launched her bid.  She quickly gobbled up ground and passed everyone but the leader as they entered the stretch.  Despite having the length of the lane to get back she couldn't seal the deal and was second at 6/5 odds.  My "best" of the day at Calder was next, but Kodiak Kody scratched :(  So, I had a break until the third at Gulfstream. 

This turf route, an allowance-optional claiming for non-winners of one, other than, was my UPSET PICK of the DAY!  My top choice was Gathering who was an amazing 10/1 in the program.  I had visions of making a super score because not only did she look good on paper to me, but I had a history with this filly!  On April 6 of last spring it was opening day at Calder and as such the first day of my summer racing season.  There was a turf route, a nw1x allowance that day at Keeneland in which Gathering was entered.  She was making her first North American start and based on her first few races in Europe she looked like a standout that day.  She sat off the pace and then exploded by the field with a devastating turn of foot.  Off that effort she made her next start a month later in the Grade 3 Bewitched, as the favorite!  Instead of closing from the back she was up on the pace that day - go figure - and faded badly.  She went to the shelf where she stayed until today.  Today she towered over these if able to reproduce her best - and since that had come when coming off a layoff, and because this was an allowance test like that one, I thought she'd do just that.  The fact that there were not any solid threats in the field helped my confidence.  I doubled the bet thinking I would probably get 7 or 8 to 1 odds.  But before the fillies and mares hit the track for the post parade she was hammered down to 5/2 favoritism.  Really?  Finally at post time she'd floated up to 3/1, and I had actually written in my analysis that odds of 3/1 or above would be a gift.  Just like the April 6 run she sat back, accelerated on the turn and BLEW by the field to score under wraps.  WHOOO HOOOO! 

 

My second win at Gulfstream, at my second at a nice price.  The $8 payoff netted me another $40!  Much like the first Gulfstream win I had to hustle to get inside for a play in New York.  And much like the first bet at Aqueduct, the fourth was also a MSW for sophomores, and yes, it was another Pletcher runner!  In her debut she had distanced herself from her seven rivals by NINE widening lengths!  The problem was she was 14 lengths behind the runaway winner!  WOW.  She was fresh today and I thought she was a solid fit.  She sat just off the leaders, made her move on the turn and surged to the lead.  Now, she didn't accelerate to the wire like she has special talent, but in work-woman-like fashion she kept to the task and was clear on the wire to provide me with my fourth winner of the day!  I missed at Tampa and at Gulfstream - second in the local with another Pletcher 3-year-old maiden special on the turf.  Global Strike sat just off the pace setter, set sail coming out of the turn and took command and then the winner blew by from the back of the field to win going away.  Not to worry, the next winner on the sheet was just one line down and it was my New York BEST of the DAY.  Last Saturday Marriedtothemusic was my "best" in New York, but after the opening race of the day the rest of the card had been cancelled due to rain and fog.  So here she was again.  Her last four speed figures, ranging from 88 to 99, would all easily win today.  My only concern was because I'd seen Andy Sterling, a NY analyst, remark last week in his pre-race card analysis that he was concerned that all those races had come at Saratoga; and that many horses have a fondness for that track but do NOT repeat the same kind of efforts at Belmont or Aqueduct.  Still, she looked tons the best and I was willing to back up my opinion with an ultra-prime-time investment, $30 to WIN!  She looked like the clear speed of the race and if I was right she'd burst to the lead and never look back.  The gates popped open, she was in front by four lengths before they completed the opening quarter mile and was G-O-N-E!  SCORE! 

Even though she was a short price, I willingly accepted the near $50 return on my bet as confirmation of my handicapping analysis.  As I've often said, sometimes it's even more rewarding to be right with the big bets, because I've "put my money where my mouth is" than to make a profit on the day.  Marriedtothemusic crossed the finish line at about 2:25 pm an it wasn't until close to 4 pm that I cashed my next ticket!  At the Fair Grounds my pick at a nice 4/1 went VERY wide into the lane and just missed to be second.  Fourth on the Calder turf as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite :(  Then it was the first of the Sunshine Millions Day stakes races, the Distaff.  My top pick was My Pal Chrisy who was cross-entered for the Filly & Mare Sprint.  I wanted her to go in that spot because I thought she had a better chance there and if she did I thought the Distaff would feature a very solid play in Toasting.  Sure enough Chrisy scratched and I tripled the bet on Toasting.  She was coming into this spot off a head loss in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct and looked not only the class of the field, but to benefit from a projected speed duel.  Unfortunately I ignored the Todd Pletcher filly who had also cross-entered in the F & M Sprint to go here.....to be fair Sweet N Discreet had never gone two turns, much less 1 1/8 miles like today's race, so who knew?  She won at a big price.  Disappointing to have missed that....but as they crossed the finish line I looked up from my spot on the rail and Ed gave me the thumbs up, HE HAD IT!  I could read his lips when he said, "I had the exacta!"  Oh, that should be nice, I thought, with a 3/1 over the second choice with Toasting out of the exacta.  I went inside to watch my next runner from Tampa.  The prices came up and for $2 Exacta box ($12), the payoff was $12.60.  That's just not right.....Ed hit the exacta, left and got the two best prices and he made a mere $.60.  Wow.  4th at Tampa when I gave up the ghost after leading all the way to the far turn; 6th at the Fair Grounds with the 8/5 favorite under top rider Rosie Napravnik....wow Rosie.  In the SSM Filly & Mare Turf I loved Wishing Gate with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens in to ride for top west coast conditioner Tom Proctor.  Stevens, before his retirement and since his return, has been a steady and successful partner for Tom Proctor and Glen Hill Farms.  She'd run graded top efforts in graded events so I thought was an excellent spot for her.  Stevens had her just off the pace to the far turn, asked her for run and she made a challenge for the lead, but then flattened out through the stretch and was a well-beaten fifth.  Silver Antelope came FLYING from the back of the field at Oaklawn, but only good enough to be third.  Next at the Fair Grounds was the Louisiana Handicap and I loved Prayer for Relief.  He is a proven graded stakes runner, who had struggled at the end of 2013, but scored with authority a month in the prep for this race, the Tenacious Handicap at a nice price - when I had him.  Nearly the same field and he looked to be much the best on paper.  He was my Fair Grounds "Best".....stalked the leaders, they turned for home and Rosie asked him......nothing.  He ran evenly and it was on class alone that he finished third as the 3/5 chalk.  Sigh........Next was the SSM Filly & Mare Sprint, and my double investment on My Pal Chrisy.  She fit like a glove here with a projected speed duel certain to develop between at least two of three "need to lead" runners.  Ullapool had won the Garland Roses, with my investment, last out when it also had looked like a speed duel would develop, but she looked much quicker than the others that day and handily wired the field.  Unfortunately for her today was local sprint star R Free Roll who was ultra quick and went gate to final jump in the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl.....I knew she'd be on the lead as well. And on the outside was Classic Point who had set the pace in both the Honorable Miss and Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga this summer.  Because of her outside post I thought she might not be on the lead but would pressure the leaders.  All of this would set up My Pal Chrisy's late kick.  The gate latch sprung open and R Free Roll was left standing in the gate, she missed the break.  Ullapool showed her speed, and Classic Point's rider decided to rate off the pace.  All of this meant that here was Ullapool - probably the "best" of the front runners all alone on an easy lead.  My Pal Chrisy came running and in mid-stretch I thought maybe, just maybe, but no.....close, but no cigar.....second.  The last of the losing streak came at Tampa over their turf when Back Away made a bid to the lead at the to of the stretch as the 3/2 favorite but then couldn't run with the field and dropped back to a distant 5th under the wire.  Oh, it was a long 2 1/2 hours I'll say.  Still, most of my picks had been right there, so it was exciting racing and fun to watch....just no reward for my picks. 

The 6th from the Fair Grounds was next, their feature, the Grade 3 Colonel Bradley on the turf.  My top choice was Daddy Nose Best.  He was the class of the field and had won the prep for this.  But he is a D-E-E-P closer who's chances are determined not only by a fair pace up front but also by having racing luck to weave through the field.  I only went in for the minimum and as the field turned for home I was glad.  He was still dead last, on the rail and had the entire field in front of him.  But, top rider Rosie Napravnik gave him the "GO" sign as she guided him outside for clear run.  A good rider knows when and where to put their mount into gear and Rosie knew how long the Fair Grounds stretch was, that she had plenty of time if he was good enough.  Daddy immediately switched to another gear and blew by horses one after another....could he get there in time?  Even with 100 yards to go I would have sold you my ticket, but Rosie had it timed perfectly, head down on the wire to WIN!  I didn't care that he was the favorite or that I only had the minimum on him....I was just delighted to break the streak of losers and get back into the winning circle!

At Santa Anita I thought Julio's Gold had a chance to wire the field an she went right to the front, coasting along.  But with a front-runner you need to have a spurt at the top of the lane to clear the field one last time, and she was confronted on the turn.  She drew away from the longshot, but when the best closer came running she didn't have enough left and was second.  In the Sunshine Millions Turf I like Tune Me In, at a big 7/1.  But he broke poorly, rushed up and had nothing left.  At Aqueduct in their finale it was Dave Liftin's "Best" - that is a near automatic play for me.  But My Sparky was a non-threatening third at even money.  Missed again at Santa Anita when Close to the Edge was Brad Free's "Best" was sent off at 5/2.  But she had duel from gate to wire and was a neck short of winning....2nd again. 

Finally, it was time for the first of my two "BEST" bets at Gulfstream.  I had seen, and bet on Ribo Bobo in the Claiming Crown Express a month ago and he waltzed around the track.  That turned out to be a big part of my investment/opinion.  His speed figures over his previous four races were 100, 96, 104, 102, and they were all MUCH better than those of any of his rivals, but in winning that event for me last time out his number had dropped out of the triple digit to a "lowly" 89.  That figure made him "vulnerable" to the other top contenders.  But having seen that race live I knew that he had gone right to the front without ever being asked to run hard, then had coasted along on an easy lead and had merely galloped home under a confident hand ride.  That race not only didn't take anything out of him, but I was certain he'd never been asked to run his best.  I fully expected a big effort today.  For some reason the crowd doubted him and let him go off at 6/5.  While that's a low price, he should have been 2/5 for a "fair price" based on his chances to win.  The second choice was determined to get to the front, and I'd seen an interview with the trainer and he'd said that he Ribo Bobo did not have to be on the lead.  Ribo Bobo rated perfectly, glided to the lead on the turn and blew the field away.  MUCH the best.....whooooo hoooooo! 

And with my $30 win ticket I cashed for nearly $70!  Even though this did not bring me even, I was feeling very good about myself having cashed on my first "Best" here at Gulfstream.  I was disappointed when Lasar Cat was a poor 7th as the even money favorite in the Tampa feature, a turf sprint.  But I came right back with a very big win ..... not only in the distance she won by, but in the price I got.  It was the second of three stakes races I was betting at the Fair Grounds on their "Derby Preview" card - I was in New Orleans two years ago for that day of racing!  It was the Marie Krantz Memorial on the turf and my pick was Eden Prairie.  She was breaking from post twelve, and as a front runner that could be problematic.  But it would also probably mean she'd be a better price than if drawn inside.  And the fact that top rider Rosie Napravnik was on board made me feel comfortable that she'd have the filly where she had her best chance to win.  Sure enough, Rosie had her break sharply and got her underway going for the lead immediately.  But two others were insistent to be the leader, so Rosie wisely backed off before they hit the first turn and saved ground by tucking in behind them.  On the far turn she asked for run and Prairie blew by the leaders.  The late runners began to make their moves, but it was too late, Eden Prairie was LONG GONE!  NICE!!!!!!!!!  And the best part, was she went off at 3/1 .... with my triple investment.  The $8 payoff meant I would be cashing for $60!  Very nice, especially after the long streak of non winners earlier in the day.

Next up was my BET OF THE DAY!  It was the featured Sunshine Millions Classic featuring the 2014 debut of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man.  He and I had a history, which will make you appreciate how big a deal it was to invest in him as I did.  I'd bet on him in the Grade 3 Risen Star two years ago and he won for me, but I've always been against him since because his trainer Kathy Ritvo has always struggled to win, he reflected this.  But in this very race last year he was coming off a nose defeat in the BC Classic and Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith flew in from California to ride.  So I backed him with a $50 win bet.  He was "eased" and didn't even finish.....figures I thought at the time.  To be fair it was an off track and his connections blamed the surface.  I was not convinced and when he lost his next four I thought my opinion of him was confirmed.  But then he shipped to Santa Anita to run in the prep for the Breeders' Cup and recent return-from-retirement Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens took over.  Mucho Macho Man looked awesome in winning; and then they came back to win the Breeders' Cup.  He's a different animal with Stevens on board....and he flew in to ride today.  Cap all that off with the fact that of the 237 races that his five rivals had run in their lifetime NONE of them were as fast as Mucho Macho Man's last three races!  He looked like a mortal lock.....and he ran like it! 

I didn't make a ton of money, but like I said earlier.  To have put $100 down to back my opinion of Mucho Macho Man and been proven right.  The glow of the big win, and in BOTH of my big bets was awesome.....and carried me through four misses before my final win of the day.  At Oaklawn Wildcat Angie was a dismal 11th at 3/1; then in the featured first step towards the Louisiana Derby, Gold Hawk was third at 6/5.  I had an uneasy feeling about him leading up to the race so I wisely back down the bet.  Gulsary appeared to be sitting on a win in the undercard feature at Santa Anita, the Megahertz Stakes for 3yo fillies on the grass.  Mike Smith had the mount and just needed a clear path to run down the leaders I thought.  Came running late at 8/5, but no better than third under the wire.  My final winner of the day came in the featured Pippin Stakes at Oaklawn.  Don't Tell Sophia had won this race last year and gone on to be a graded winner over the course of 2013.  She also was a "Horse-for-the-Course" with a 4/2-1-1 record and finally was coming into the race with a best of 77 workout over the track......she was obviously ready to run.  Her late running style came in handy when she was steadied out of the gate and had to take up.  But, no worries, she wants to be in the back.  She moved up down the backstretch, cruised to the lead on the turn and then sprinted home.  The margin of victory looked closer than it actually was because the rider had the field measured.  It was my Oaklawn BEST BET and I cashed for almost $30. 

In the last play of the day I thought Hear the Ghost was primed for a beg effort in Santa Anita's feature, the Grade 2 Strub Stakes.  He made his big late run, but too late....third.  For the day, TEN WINS.....a good day.  Had just ONE MORE of my added investments come home a winner I'd have made a nice profit for the day; and had I hit my normal 30%+ I also would have had a nice profit.  As I've said many times, if I cannot make a profit on the day, but come within one win of that I'm happy with my betting strategy.  Hitting my top FOUR "Best Bets" of the day also made me feel good about my selections and investing.  Check the video highlight below, especially the last thirty seconds as Ed recaps his day......7 wins from ten races, but no profit.  As I say on the video, ".....the races, you gotta love the races!...."