Day 20

Old Hat Stakes Day

"Danielle's Day At The Races!"

The weather was anything but picturesque, but this Saturday at Gulfstream brought several racing highlights and made for a fun day.....in spite of the final set of Santa Anita races AGAIN leading to a small financial loss on the day.  I was looking forward to today for two reasons - (1) I had not been out to the races for two weeks, a time period W-A-Y too long for me!  And (2) I was meeting a former student, Danielle, for a day of racing.  I had not seen Danielle since she graduated several years ago and it would be her first racing experience.  I always enjoy introducing young people (or anyone for that matter) to this exciting and fascinating game.  The original plan was to meet for lunch around noon and then spend the afternoon enjoying the racing and hopefully cashing tickets.  But, Danielle had been fighting a cold and was late arriving, so the first half of the day I spent on my own. 

The racing action started off just the way you like to start....with not only a WIN, but with a victory in a "best" bet selection.  The first race on my selection sheet was the second at Calder.  My top pick was Mystical Myles who had been a runner-up in his debut to an impressive winner who was my top pick in a Tampa stakes today; AND was seven clear of the show runner.  I was just delighted that he was even money - a huge overlay - as they moved into the gate.  But he took a lot of late money, being hammered down to 1-2 at post time.  Still, I thought he was a legitimate 1-5 favorite, so I thought he was still a "big" price, relatively speaking, to me.  He stalked the longshot leader to the turn, then took over willingly and drew clear with ease. 

My next was the second at Gulfstream.  Jamaican Smoke.  He looked fastest of the bunch to the front and was dropping out of graded stakes company.  However he'd been away for a while.  He was the third choice in the betting until late when he was bet down to 6/5 favoritism.  He went to the front and seemed comfortable on the lead.  But when asked to go on with it as they turned for home he offered little resistance and was 3rd.  At Tampa it was the Pasco Stakes up next.  The fact that Mystical Myles had exited the maiden win by Giancarlo with a big score today reinforced my opinion that he'd run down the likely favorite.  The crowd agreed with my analysis and sent him off as the 9/5 favorite stretching out to seven furlongs.  I thought he was a little too far off the pace, but still Tampa typically favors late runners.  As they hit the turn he did not accelerate, but was grinding into the lead.  He wasn't going to wear down the winner from eight or nine off the pace, so his late finish could only get him third money. 

There were three stakes races on the program at Gulfstream, two of them graded.  The one I was most looking forward to was the first of these in Race 3, the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes for sophomore fillies.  I looked at the field and thought that Todd Pletcher's Sweet Whiskey would be the most obvious winner.  So I analyzed the other fillies to see if anyone could offer a legitimate upset chance.  The answer was clearly NO.  In addition to that Pletcher - as the CEO of the Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club, offered three big angles with the favorite.  With dirt sprinters, he is a 42% winner; with stakes runners he is a 40% winner over the past two winters; but most important, today, he is a HUGE 47% winner with class droppers.  Sweet Whiskey won with authority in her debut, then missed in her first try against winners in the Grade 1 Spinaway over a sloppy track.  In her last she was a best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 2 Matron.  So today's Grade 3 event was a drop in class.  She was breaking from the rail and I thought she'd show speed.  But she broke, I thought, a bit slowly.  Coupled with that the two speed rivals exploded from the gate.  Top rider Javier Castellano wisely sat just off the leaders saving all the ground through the turn.  But as heads turned for home, there was a wall of three across the track and he would have to swing her very wide, losing valuable ground, or hope for a seam to open along the rail.  It did, and as her stablemate forged to the lead three wide, she accelerated through the rail to briefly draw even.  Then in the blink of an eye she exploded past and won drawing off!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Winner, winner, chicken dinner! 

It was slow over the next two hours as I had only five races.  I was second at 2/1 over the Gulfstream turf with a Pletcher class dropper, then third at 8/5 at Aqueduct over their snow covered facility.  Todd Pletcher's Concorde Cat had been beaten some thirty, yes 30 lengths in his debut.  Just too bad to believe, so I thought he had a chance to rebound at a chance.  He burst out of the gate at nearly 5-1 and led them into the turn.  I waited for the characteristic change of gears and acceleration to the wire, but he was done....faded to a well beaten 6th.  I the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct for 3-year-old fillies Alpaca Fina, a winner of three of four starts, but all sprints, could not stretch out to two turns.....fifth as the 5/2 second choice.  And finally at the Fair Grounds I thought Bacardi Cat Run was the lone speed, but he was held off the leader.  Made a late run, but only second best at even money.  Right about then I got a text that Danielle had arrived so I went to meet her and walked her inside to watch my next race.  I gave her a brief introduction to handicapping and explained why I thought Affliction would be the dominant speed at Santa Anita in their opener.  We watched over the simulcast network as he EASILY dominated the field at 4/5.  We came outside to watch the first live race for her, and Lengenda Aurea was allowed to go off at 9/2.  She ran a good race to be fourth.  Back inside to watch two more races.....the first was the Grade 2 Jerome where it was my "best" in New York.  Noble Moon had been a good third last time out to two of the top NY sophomores.  Anything like that would easily put him in the winner's circle today.  The rider tried to get him to relax off the lead, but by the time they'd gone halfway down the backside he could not restrain him any further and Noble Moon pulled him to the lead as they hit the final turn.  He was unable to pull away and as they turned for home he was challenged up the rail and on the outside.  It looked to me like he would be in a dogfight without enough left, but he fought hard and maintained the lead to the furlong marker.  Then, just when I thought he'd give in, he reached down, held on and in the final two hundred yards drew off.  A courageous win!  

My second win since Danielle arrived in less than fifteen minutes....and I had only won two races in 2 1/2 hours before her arrival.  I told her she was a good luck charm :)  Less than five minutes later they were off at Tampa over the turf and Avanzare drew off easily to win!  It was not only noteworthy that I'd won three of four, but she was trained by Tom Proctor and became his career 1,000th winner!  Congrats Tom!  Next up was the Grade 2 Santa Ynez for three-year-old fillies at Santa Anita, their version of the Old Hat.  Unlike here at Gulfstream I was against the favorite.  There were only three rivals to choose from and I went with Taste Like Candy who was impressive in her debut, then a good second to Bob Baffert's Kentucky Oaks hopeful.  The good news is that I was correct in going against the favorite, but the bad news it wasn't my filly that won.....second as the 6/5 second choice. 

Next up was the most exciting race of the day and probably the best story of the day.  It was a Maiden Special race for 3-year-olds going a one-turn mile.  Pletcher had two entered in here.  Go-to rider Castellano was on Constitution, and he was going to be my "best" locally.  The "other Pletcher" runner was Vinceramos.  I'd seen him run on Opening Day, and he'd been my top pick at 4/5.  He was second best that day, and frankly I didn't think he looked like a "first stringer" for the top barn.  But Constitution scratched out of the race.  As the horses came into the paddock I explained all of this to Danielle, and I told her that typically when my top pick scratches I pass the race.  But, I continued, in this case I think the fact that Pletcher had withdrawn what I thought was CLEARLY the best of the two runners, that maybe, just maybe Pletcher thought that Vinceramos was sitting on a winning effort.  Further, when Iooked at the board he was being pounded at the windows.  I told her I was not only going to bet him, but was doubling the investment.  I encouraged her to make her first bet, ever.  We went to the windows and I made my bet.....she pulled out two dollars and invested in the race.  Vinceramos broke nicely and settled off the leaders.  As they spun out of the turn he made his move, splitting horses and accelerated to the lead!  WHOOO HOOO, Danielle is gong to win her first bet.  I turned on the video camera in anticipation of his acceleration to the wire.  But then, uh oh, he began to shorten stride and lugged in.....the third choice was accelerating towards him.  As they hit the wire in front of us I thought he'd won, but we had a bad angle.  Still, when Larry Colmus called it a PHOTO FINISH I told Danielle I thought he'd won.  The slo-mo replay came up and in the final jumps we won, we didn't, no - we won, wait, we didn't.....on the wire it was just a question of at what point in the bobbing heads was the official wire.........WE WON!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Very exciting for me, just to win a photo finish obviously; but for her, she'd won with her first bet.  The 3/2 odds got her back $5 and she was thrilled. 

 

I came right back with my best price play winner of the day.  It was the Gasparilla Stakes for sophomore fillies at Tampa.  I was not excited about the favorite, who I had backed in the prep for this, and she didn't seem like a Pletcher first team runner.  So looked for an alternative.  Nesso was dropping out of back-to-back graded stakes where she'd gone in two-turn turf races.  Today the turn back to a seven furlong sprint, on a closer-favoring track AND with a bullet work to boot.  Nesso pressed the pace on the inside, but a 59-1 shot forged to the lead as they moved through the turn.  Then the longshot could not handle the corner and floated about eight wide leaving Nesson on the lead.  Good enough to win?  YES!  She hit her best stride and drew off at 4/1!  The $10 payout netted me a return of $25!

 

Only one more race before I needed to head home in order to get to the Florida Panthers game with Kim before the 7 pm drop of the puck.  Midnight Transfer was a non-threatening fourth in the Midnight Lute Stakes at Santa Anita as the 4/5 favorite; and finally Angelica Zapata was a good third at a big 5/1 price in the Grade 3 Marshua's River locally.  The final race we saw live was the Spectacular Bid, a six furlong sprint for the sophomore colts, and again I was backing the Pletcher runner, Trail Blaze.  I'd seen him interviewed on HRTV on Thursday and I was not thrilled when he said they had wanted to put him in an allowance race, but it didn't fill, so they thought they'd "try this spot."  Hmmmm.  But he was hammered to favoritism, and I didn't see any clear-cut winner.  He was fourth at 6/5 to a longshot.  So after winning two of my first nine races, I impressed my young friend by winning five of ten races to close the day.  Got home in plenty of time to have a quick bite to eat and then off to the game.......topping off a great day, the Panthers won in a six-round shoot-out! 

I watched my last six races at home on twinspires.com, and was happy when first Bavern scored handily in a 3yo maiden special at Santa Anita.....so easily that I regretted NOT investing more, sigh.  Then I scored with my third winner (all Pletcher horses) at Gulfstream when Principessa Gina EASILY romped home over the turf in the twilight.  Another I regretted not putting more money on; especially since she'd been GP Handicapper Ron Nicoletti's "Best" of the day.  As I recapped my day at Gulfstream I was proud of myself when I compared my selections to those of the three "pros" who give their selections: 

But the black line profit disappeared in the final four races......Good Deed looked to be easily the fastest on the turf, sprinting five furlongs in the Fair Grounds' Pan Zaretta Stakes. Everyone saw what I saw and she went off at 3/5.  Right to the front, comfortably in front to the top of the lane.  The closers came to her and she offered nothing....she held second, but really no late run.  My "BEST" of the day came in their finale in New Orleans where Bulls Blue Lady was first off the claim for a hot young trainer - a 35% winning move AND he was dropping in class.  Again, everyone saw the same thing and he went off at 6/5, but he faltered late to be third.......sigh.  Cat Burglar was the 3/5 favorite for Baffert in an Optional Claiming event.  He was DRF's Brad Free's "Best" of the day and best of all his last two speed figures were better than any lifetime figure earned by his rivals.  Second, again.  WOW.  And then in the 8th and featured Grade 2 San Gabriel going nine furlongs over the turf I went against favorite Jeranimo, who'd won this race twice and finished second the other time the past three years.  I backed the lone speed on the rail, but was discouraged that Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens was not on board, as he had been when he wire a graded stakes this summer.  Slim Shadey went to the front, comfortable fractions - not able to slow them down to a leisurely pace, but comfortable.....opened up to a daylight lead into the stretch.......and then Jeranimo rallied from dead last under a hand ride to run by him in the final 16th - second AGAIN!  But, it had been a great day from start to finish......nine winning tickets; four winners picked at Gulfstream; won the featured Grade 3 Old Hat; introduced Danielle to racing and cashed her first ticket; AND won the Panthers game!