Day 30

And The Favorites Go Down - Down - Down

I had FIVE favorites go down today dampening the enthusiasm from the big day on Saturday.  In the second I selected what I thought would be the lone speed in Joe's Blazing Aaron.  As a three-year-old he had wired a graded stakes here in an upset.  Recently he'd set the pace in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Belmont.  So today's high-priced claiming event looked to be a nice spot for a confidence-building win.  Right out of the gate though I knew there was going to be trouble as a longshot sprinted to the lead forcing Joe to sit back off the speed.  He looked to be comfortably "leading" the field and took the lead coming out of the turn.  But he had no response to the late closers and finished third as the 8/5 favorite.  In the very next race Band of Joy looked to have a HUGE edge over this nw1x field.  He was coming off two big speed figures in his first two tries sprinting on the turf and was making his first start for top trainer Todd Pletcher.  All the HRTV analysts were all over him as an obvious choice and the crowd sent him off as the 3/5 favorite.  But he broke slowly, then was steadied in traffic......sigh.....he made a big late run, but to no avail, another third.  In the 4th Dubh was the even money favorite after being claiming by Team Calabrese.  First off the claim runners have won at a big 43% rate.....but not this one, second.  WOW.  FINALLY into the winner's circle in the 6th. 

It was a Maiden Special Weight for sophomores, and there was the Pletcher filly was the obvious choice for me.  She looked ready to fire in her debut today off two recent sharp works, one of which was a bullet over the deep Palm Meadows training track.  Typically Pletcher first time starters burst out of the gate and discourage the field with a quick move to the lead.  But Sloane Square was unhurried early and found herself some seven lengths behind in the back of the pack.  This was especially worrisome for me because the distance of the race was a short 5 1/2 furlongs.  Top rider Javier Castellano saved ground into the turn and then swung FIVE WIDE into the lane.  Things didn't look good, but then she accelerated with a devastating kick and blew by the field to win going away! 

I thought, "...here we go!..." based on how I'd been winning this past week.  The next race on my sheet was the featured Kitten's Joy Stakes for three-year-olds.  My top two runners were We Miss Artie from the Pletcher barn, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and the up and coming star, Stormin Inti from the Chad Brown barn.  They went off as co-favorites and Stormin Inti went to the front to set the pace.  'Artie tracked him to the turn and launched his bid.  By the time heads were turned for home the two of them had separated themselves from the field and were dueling.  At the 8th pole it looked like 'Arite might go on by, but Inti would have none of it as he battled back on the rail.  Heads up and down it would come down to who's bob was on the wire.  I watched the slo-mo replay several times and I really thought I'd won......nope, second in an oh-so-close photo.  

No time to cry over spilled milk as my "BEST" of the day was in the finale.  Subtle was CLEARLY the one to beat with her last four turf sprints had yielded three wins and a just-miss second.  She'd paired 90 speed figures in her last two and those were BOTH ten points better than any lifetime best earned by anyone in the field.  She was coming off a layoff, but had twice won off the shelf for trainer Jason Servis, who had a 27% overall winning average with fresh horses.  EVERYONE was on board and sent her off at 1/5.  She was in mid-pack early, got to third as they came out of the turn.....but then slowly but surely dropped farther and farther back until she was 8th and last.  NOT the way I'd forseen the day ending.  The good news though.....we don't have to wait until mid-week to get back on track as there is special holiday racing tomorrow on Martin Luther King Day!