60% WINS! Another BIG Day!
And the winning just continues....it was a second really good day of handicapping at Gulfstream on Friday which produced a profit of over $60 for the second consecutive day. On a personal level the day was worrisome as Kim had to have an out-patient procedure on her eye for a "torn retina." I had originally planned to go to Gulfstream today to enjoy the weather and get our Florida Derby tickets. But that was obviously put on hold. I did call about the tickets - we now have a group of 28 going - and was told that at this time I can only get my guaranteed ten tickets; I'll have to wait until probably the second week of February to get the others. On to the racing.......in the opener by double investment scratched and I was tempted to go with my second choice, but as I re-read through my analysis I was reminded I was against the favorite, and sure enough he went down at odds of 1/5! In the second my top selection was 3/5 and my second choice was 13/1....the big price runner came flying thru the lane to nearly catch the winner and I'd nailed the exacta - but no bet. And then came the third. In this seven furlong claiming event I liked Tarpy's Goal. In races at seven furlongs I had learned long ago that one key angle is to look for horses who have shown an affinity to this unique elongated sprint distance. And that was the first thing that jumped off the pp's about my pick....he was 2-for-3 at today's distance. It was also interesting that he'd won HERE before at the distance with a big Beyer figure. Check out his pp's, do you see the pattern? 
That big figure had come when he was second off the layoff.....like today. But then I noticed the other angle.....in January 2012 he came off a layoff and ran in a turf sprint, and was beaten a little more than five lengths. In his race prior to today, he had come off a layoff, run in a turf sprint, and was beaten five lengths. Too much of a coincidence for me. I also liked the drop in class today. I doubled the bet - he was a nice 5/1 in the program. When they left the gate he was nearly that at 7/2. He stalked the pace, running a race very similar to the Jan 2012 effort and drew off late, just like that day!
I cashed for almost $50 and it's a great start to my Friday! In the 4th I tripled the investment on Steffi in a non-winners of two lifetime. She had just been claimed by Michael Maker for Ken & Sarah Ramsey....a very high percentage play. AND Maker was a 40% winner over the past two winters when dropping his horses in class. She went off at even money but ran evenly throughout to finish fifth. Disappointing. But that did not last too long as I scored again in the 5th. Several things led me to believe that All Tied Up would be a short priced favorite. First he was trained by Todd Pletcher. Second he'd paired up speed figures in his last two. I've often found that when that happens, it is a sign of impending improvement. And frequently this occurs when those two races are separated by a break.....All Tied Up had earned a 75 over the Aqueduct turf in November and then matched that number with a better than it looks fifth here. I also liked the fact that this recent effort, as a three-year-old had nearly matched his juvenile best. Another sign of a step up in performance. And finally, one of Pletcher's GP 40% Club angles is that he wins with a huge 49% of his runners making their second start of the meet! Somehow the crowd let this gut go off at what I thought was an inflated price of 5/2. We were going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf and as they moved down the backstretch he was towards the back. Then he began picking off horses approaching the turn. He was five wide through the turn and into the stretch but had all the momentum as he swept by and drew clear late to WIN!
The $7 pay off on a Pletcher runner was amazing, and it added another $35 into my bankroll. I'm certain to make another profit on the day! In the ninth I had another good price at 7/1 on Chairman Gary. I can't say that he'd have won, but it didn't help matters that he was blocked through the turn and when there was an opening down the lane he was no longer full of run. But he was a good fourth. The final play of the day was my "Bet of the Day! I knew that Mr. Online would be odds-one, but he looked REALLY strong in this spot. The last race today was on the turf going one mile. It was a starter optional claiming event with racing conditions restricting entries to those who had run for a $25K claiming price. Well, Mr. Online had won a $25K claiming event back in July. He then went on to win a nw2x allowance race, finish second by a neck to 20-time stakes winner Ben's Cat in a $100K stakes race, run second in a GRADE 1, and then win a nw3x allowance before in his last he took the $100K El Prado Stakes here! WOW was he over-qualified or what! On class alone he was a standout. In addition his last FOUR BEYERS, 97-89-89-97 were better than anything anyone in the field had run in two years with once exception. The two who had earned an 89 in 2012 had not run anything like that since and the one who had matched it recently had never run out of the 70's until he upset win-machine Major Marvel (as my best bet) earlier this month. All this added up to this.....the fastest horse, with the most class was my pick and he could very likely wind up all alone on the lead! Jockey Kevin Carmouche was smart enough to let a longshot gun to the lead and he tracked the pace well in front of the rest of the field. He glided up on the turn then let Mr. Online go and it was ALL OVER! He romped home as much the best and SHOULD have been 2/5 or so on the tote board, but instead the crowd had let him go at even money!
Oh My, are you serious? I had doubled my money with as close to a "sure thing" as there could be! And he didn't pay just $4.00, he paid the additional click to $4.20, so I cashed for another $42 and my winnings ballooned to $62 on the day while winning 3-of-5 races. So for the week I have nailed SEVEN of twelve and profited almost $125. What a great start to the week!
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