Monday, January 20, 2014

Day 28

WOW - FIVE WINS
Only Bet on Three Of Them

As if the winning rate had not been so phenomenal already, I started off Friday's card with my top selection winning the opener, won the second, scratched in the third, won the fourth and won the fifth!  What a way to start off the day!  The winner in the opener, Crazy Laura, paid over $10, but I passed the race.  In the second it was a maiden claimer for sophomores and I liked F Five Movement.  Se was claimed last time out from a bottom level claiming event by Team Calabrese and trainer Kirk Ziadie, and that's a 45% winning angle.  He was aggressively raised in price for today's event to $20K.  She went right to the front and drew off like a champion as the 2/1 favorite.  The $6.40 payoff led to cashing for more than fifteen dollars :) 

My next investment came in the fourth where I had my "best" of the day on Bradester.  On New Year's Day 2013 Bradester was a dominant winner and I thought he had stakes winner written all over him.  But throughout the year he disappointed....once for me when I was on track at Saratoga on Travers Day.  But he's continued to flash talent, as in his second place effort in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby behind multiple stakes winner Power Broker.  He was coming off a layoff today and returning to his favorite venue, at his favorite distance and I thought the stars were just lined up perfectly for him.  He was put right on the lead by Jose Lezcano and held a narrow advantage all the way to the far turn before opening up and romping home.  He paid what I thought was a generous $4.60 so I was able to cash for well over $30!  AWESOME! 

In the 5th JJ's Lucky Train was the 1-2 favorite and scored easily, but like the first I passed.  In the 6th I was very confident that Frere Pilgrim would wire the field.  She had set the pace and just missed in a narrow photo finish against MSW company last out and today she was dropping in for a tag.  I struggled with the racing adage, "a quitter is a quitter, is a quitter."  But she looked on an easy lead today and the drop in class would certainly move her up.  So I supported her.  Didn't hurt my confidence when all the analysts at Gulfstream (on HRTV) all said the same.  Joel Rosario sent her right to the front and she was loose on an easy lead.  But much like I've seen him do at least twice recently with front runners on the turf - when I'm betting on them - he asked her for run as they entered the far turn rather than waiting to spurt free at the top of the lane.  She opened up by daylight, but like the other two, in the final 16th had nothing left to resist the closers.....faded to fourth :(  In the 7th I had a good 5/1 price on English Progress on the turn.....fifth.  Then in the 8th it was a rare event....a Todd Pletcher 3-year-old in MSW company did NOT win.....Lucky For You was a big 2/1 price.  She stalked the leader, forged to the front but the winner blew by to draw off by five; at least she held second.  Back in the winner's circle for the third time with Brandy's Secret.  She looked like the lone speed and had several other angles in her corner.  She was 3-for-3 at today's 7 1/2 furlong distance and was a "horse-for-the-course" with a local record of 5/3-0-2.  Her four starts last winter here earned Beyers of 89-91-89-87 and all of those would win for fun.  Her latest, an 84 could be forgiven as it was off a layoff and in one of the $100K Claiming Crown stakes events.  The crowd bet her down to 1-2, and I thought that was fair considering all the evidence.  Wire-to-wire just as expected! 

In the finale I had Street Trick who rallied strongly to get the place spot but was really never a win threat.  So for the day I had an excellent 3-for-7 record, over 40% winners!

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