Day 21

A Big Finish To The Day / Week

I had six selections on the Gulfstream card and I won two of them, but only got credit for one win.  And that story doesn't include the "BIG WIN" of the day......let's get to the stories.  I was disappointed in the first four selections of the day when they all failed to score.  In the 3rd it was a maiden claimer for sophomores in which the combined record of the trainers of all but two runners was 7-for-103.  That left a trainer who was 9-for-43, but the horse had just been beaten at this level by twenty lengths.  My pick, Why Buy Silver went out for Jorge Navarro who was 6-for-12 here and a big 35% for 2013.  No wonder he was the 8/5 favorite.  But as they hit the far turn he not only did not accelerate, he dropped back through the field to be fifth.  AP Elvis was the pick in a turf sprint in the fourth.  He was a big 23-1 at post time and I thought he had an upset chance as a legitimate closer in a race filled with "need to lead" types.  Sure enough a finisher won, but Elvis never made it "into the building" :)  In the fifth I went with Todd Pletcher's Discreetly Elusive.  Much like Vinceramos on Saturday, he had disappointed on Opening Day.  Pletcher sports a 49% win rate over the last two winters with runners making their second start of the meeting.  He was sent off as the 3/2 favorite.  He made a big move on the turn and seemed to have all the momentum to inhale the front-running second choice, but then he leveled off and finished evenly to be second best, never close to the winner.  In the 8th River Lemon had run his best career effort at 12 furlongs, so today's 11 1/2 furlong marathon seemed right up his alley.  At 8/1 in the program he seemed a good upset selection.  He seemed comfortable and in contention to the far turn, but when the sprint for home began he had nothing.....8th. 

The feature for today was the $100K Ginger Brew Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  I liked the winner of the prep for this, the Wait A While Stakes, in spite of the fact that it was rained off the turf that day.  Candy Kitty was yet another Todd Pletcher star, so that was in her favor.  But I was drawn to her because she'd won at Keeneland over their turf course, beating next out Grade 3 Jessamine winner Kitten Kaboodle.  And if the rains came, she'd be a top threat on the main track.  As they were loading into the gate she was a huge 4/1!  I thought, if this holds I'll break even for the day!  But as they left the gate she was down to 5/2....but as they hit the far turn she was back to 3/1.  Jockey Edgar Prado saved all the ground from the #1 post until they hit the far turn.  You could tell he wanted to get her clear off the rail, but was boxed in.  As heads turned for home a hole opened on the rail and he shook the reins.  But on her first jump the hole slammed shut.  He had to briefly take up and by now we were past the furlong marker!  He made a right hand turn, moved three wide and split horses.  As soon as Candy Kitty saw green grass she down-shifted into high gear and blew by the leaders to score! 

The pay-off of $8.40 was a gift, and I cashed for $42.00!  I am eight dollars from breaking even with the obvious favorite in the finale!  WHOOO HOOOO.  In the finale I had another Pletcher runner - you'd think from reading my journals that all I do is blindly bet on the Pletcher horses, but in fact I actually handicap the races!  Aunt Ruby's Kitten was a Ken & Sarah Ramsey runner and she was dropping from $75K to $35K.  The Pletcher angle of 49% second start of the meet was in play.  Jockey Javier Castellano made a big move on the turn and she was GONE!  However, in mid-stretch she seemed to veer out not once, but twice.  The second time in particular the second choice appeared to be ranging up to her and she had to briefly take up.  But Aunt Ruby's Kitten drew off to win by open lengths, and the other filly really didn't run strong to the wire.  The HRTV people were quick to point out that this didn't look good.  As I watched the replay I thought it truly could go either way.  I've seen horses taken down for this (or less), but I've also seen them have their number kept up when it was clear that the rivals weren't going to win anyway. 

The official word came down, "Ladies and Gentlemen, there has been a disqualification......"  Just like that a winning day, a 33% win average - all went away.  Luckily I had one more race on my sheet. 

When I'd looked online at the DRF and other online publications I saw that the feature today at Santa Anita was the Grade 3 Monrovia going down the hillside turf course.  As you know, I love to play these races.  Then I saw who one of the top contenders was - Ponchatrain!  Only true followers of my adventures will remember that during my 2012 Del Mar Handicapping Project had this one made the list as an all-time big score.  She'd debuted for Tom Proctor and Glen Hill Farms on that Del Mar Sunday afternoon.  According to the Del Mar 40% Club, Proctor won with Maiden Specials at a 57% win rate.  I'd investigated his wins over the previous two years in MSW company and ALL of them were owned by Glen Hill Farm. I tripled the bet.  Ponchatrain went off at odds of 17-1.  She paid $37 and with my investment I got back over $275!  It's obvious why I am always alert when she is entered.

Subsequently she had won down the hillside and when he last ran I had her.....over Breeders' Cup Weekend in the Grade 3 Ken Maddy.  She won for me that day as well.  And today's field was made up in large part by many of the same rivals.  I checked DRF Brad Free's column and he not only said she was the clear favorite, but she had an ideal post and the perfect running style for the race.  I then flipped over to Jeff Seigle's column and he too said virtually the same thing.  I went in for a triple investment.  Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens had her perfectly placed as they flew down the hill.  As they crossed the dirt and accelerated for home he had her in the clear and she edged clear without being asked for her best!  WHOOOP WHOOOP!  The $4.20 payoff netted me over $30 and I was a winner for the day!  A great way to end the weekend!