Day 26

Another  A - M - A - Z - I - N - G  Day

After winning 18 of 24 on Saturday I talked, wrote, and thought about how those kind of days are few and far between.....and yet just two racing days later, here we go again!  This may be viewed as even more impressive considering the number of races.  The day's story begins on Tuesday when I sat down to handicap.  After the weekend's success one thing I thought much about was that I had been very confident in Lea's chances in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope, and he'd won at a big price - $14.80 - but I had only invested the minimum.  So, I told myself I needed to do a better job of upping the investment when I have that level of confidence in runners.  So I sat down Tuesday morning to handicap the races and that decision led to two big pay offs that made the day......five wins from just seven selections, and a profit of nearly $150!  Considering that Saturday I made just $50 more on seventeen more selections, today has to rank as good if not better than Saturday's results! 

I passed the opener where my top choice went off at 12/1.  Liberal Spin was the "other" half of an uncoupled entry for Dale Romans and I wrote about how often those kind win at a big price.  As they came down the stretch my second choice, the preferred half of the entry was desperately trying to hold off his longshot stablemate, and he did in the tightest of photo finishes.  It was a preview of how good my handicapping was to be for the day.  In the second race it was a maiden claimer for older.  I was immediately drawn to the first time starter from the Team Calabrese stable.  Trainer Kirk Ziadie had hit at nearly a 50% rate all summer at both Calder and Gulfstream.  Many of those were debut runners - often in for a tag (50% - $3.78) - and with Eclipse Award-nominated jockey Edgar Zayas (51%).  But, as I wrote, those fields were far weaker than what you find at Gulfstream during their "Championship" season.  With that in mind, I continued, THIS particular field looked very much like those summer fields with no big names, no big class droppers.  And so I backed Purecrazyluck and doubled the bet.  As I watched the races on HRTV (I had originally planned to go out to see the multiple picks, but we had a new dishwasher coming), my pick was 4/1 in the early betting and my third choice was 3/5.  I looked back at my comments and became even more certain I was right.  By post time Purecrazyluck was the 8/5 favorite and right out of the gate I had a very good feeling.  Typical of Team Calabrese winners is to break in front and never give the field a chance.  The filly broke sharply and was on the lead, but under some pressure.  Still, as I watched the race unfold it seemed like Zayas had a confident hold of his mount while his pace rival seemed to be working to keep pace.  As they turned for home Zayas shook the reins and it was all over.  Purecrazyluck drew off by TWELVE widening lengths without ever being asked for her best!  WHOOO HOOOO!  The $5.20 payoff returned nearly $30 to start the day. 

The story of the day, if the day itself was not THE story, came in the third race.  It was a non-winners-of-two lifetime on the turf.  As I scanned through the past performances there looked to be no one who would want the lead.  Often you can get a good price on front runners, especially on the turf, if the speed is drawn on the outside because the accepted logic is that that outside post will make it difficult to make and/or maintain the early lead.  Well, here was just such an example as Roman's Avenue was in the ten-hole and looked to be the lone front runner.  That alone might have made him the pick, but look at his pp's and read how I analyzed the race: 

My analysis:  "10-Roman's Avenue could spring the upset in this restricted turf event.  he appears to be the LONE speed in this spot with aggressive gate rider Paco Lopez.  Last out he broke from this same ten post and was clear through fractions of :23.4, :47, and 1:11.4 - numbers that would put him clear by daylight.  The finishing fraction of hat race was some three lengths fater than what the closers in here have run and Roman still held second.  LONG GONE at a big price!"  So, to me, it looked like he would be clear by daylight and probably NOT have to run as fast early as in his last....but even if he did run that fast, his finishing time was STILL faster than what the closers could run.  Here's the first example of my thoughts from Saturday playing a role in the outcome of the day.  As I listed Roman's Avenue as my choice I thought, "this is exactly what I'm talking about" and so I doubled the bet.  It just screamed off the page that he was the winner.  In the pre-race analysis on HRTV all three commentators talked about there were "several" speed types in here.  I re-examined the field and thought to myself, they are CLEARLY missing it!  He was 10/1, then floated up to 12/1 as they loaded in the gate.  Some late money knocked him down to 9/1 but it didn't matter.  They broke out of the gate and within the first fifty yards Lopez had easily crossed over the field and was clear by daylight.  As you can see in this sequence of photos the race was run EXACTLY as I'd seen it! 

As the field hit the far turn they closed in to within a length of Roman, but I could tell that Lopez was not being run down, he was giving his horse a long breather and had yet to ask him to run.  The :48 and change half-mile fraction, and then the 1:13.4 six furlong pace call were multiple lengths slower than his last race.  I knew he had plenty left, and sure enough as they turned for home he opened up and was easily the winner!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

The payoff of $21.40 meant I would be collecting $107 and I was certain to be a winner for the day.  I quickly calculated the remainder of my seven plays because ALL of them were added investments with one "Prime Time" bet and one triple.  No matter, I'm a winner no matter what - it's going to be a great day!  In the 4th I had the even money favorite, but was blocked throughout the race until finally able to get free at the furlong pole, too late, second.  Then I was a well beaten sixth in my next selection in the 7th.  And so now we move to the 8th, a nw1x event for fillies and mares and it was the second time in the handicapping process that my thoughts from Saturday paid off.  Private Ensign looked MUCH the best to me on several angles.  She'd won here last winter decisively for trainer Dale Romans in what turned out to be a KEY race.  She came right back to score at today's one-turn mile.  In her third start here last winter she ran third in the Grade 2 Davona Dale.  The runner-up from that race, Dreaming of Julia, next appeared in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks and won by over twenty lengths!  Romans then tried synthetics and turf before shutting down Private Ensign for the year.  Those two non-dirt efforts were a disaster.  For what ever reason after that she was moved to Todd Pletcher's shedrow.  And this set up multiple Gulfstream Park 40% Club angles.......dirt routes (40%), turn back in distance (44%), and dropping in class (47%).  Add in top rider Javier Castellano and sharp works over the deep Palm Meadows training track and she looked solid.  Typically I'd double the bet on a Pletcher runner like this, and maybe go triple down.  But again I recalled my thoughts from Saturday and said to myself, "she's the winner, PERIOD, bet her as such!"  And so I made her the "Bet of the Day" and went "prime time" ($20) on her.  She broke sharply and seemed in hand to the stretch where she opened up and drew off comfortably without really being asked for her best run.  I read later in the day online that she is next expected to surface in the Grade 3 Sabin! 

Best of all, she was allowed to go off at 8/5 - a truly inflated price in my opinion - and paid $5.20, meaning I collected over $50!  Now I am assured of a profit of $100 or more!  Right back in the 9th it was a maiden claiming turf event for sophomore fillies. My pick was the Chad Brown-trained Ack Rider.  She'd debuted at this same distance but was stuck in post 14 and ran wide.  She was a "better-than-it-looks" sixth that afternoon, but only missed third place money by a little more than two lengths.  Brown is also a GP 40% Club member and his class droppers over the last two winters have won at an amazing 71%!  WOW.  The crowd was sharp enough to bet her down to 7/5 favoritism.  The gates opened and immediately she was in the back, nearly ten lengths off the pace.  As the field moved down the backstretch the pace was moderate at best and Ack Rider was not even in the TV picture!  I thought, "well, either Castellano knows she's much the best, or this is all over"  She finally appeared on the screen as the hit the far turn and the leaders were approaching the top of the stretch. She began to pass horses, but still a lot of work to do.  Then at about the furlong marker she accelerated with a remarkable turn of foot and inhaled the field and won by daylight under a hand ride!  WOW!  AMAZING! 

I cashed for another $24!  And now I have four wins from six selections.  The pre-race comments focused entirely on my choice, Wire Funds in an optional claiming turf sprint.  EVERYONE agreed that she had just beaten what appeared to be a tougher field and seemed to have this race over a barrel.  The 3/5 price was fair considering the evidence and she ran like an odds-on favorite.  Even while dueling through the turn and into the lane jockey Paco Lopez was not moving his hands and looking around for competition like he was multiple lengths in front!  So when he asked for a little run in mid-stretch Wire Funds opened up easily and scored by daylight!  MY FIFTH WIN!  And another $24 in my pocket.  For the day the Twinspires account looked like this: 

What a great way to start off the week!