Day 36

Not One But TWO BEST BETS WIN!

My original plan was to head out to Gulfstream for the day today, and then the weather forecast came out, calling for rain.  But that was ok, I don't mind an off track, in fact I kind of like playing off-track races and being there.....and I had some "main-track-only" selections if it came to that.  But as Kim was leaving for work (yes, back to work in spite of the eye issues) and I was getting up (because I don't HAVE to get up early, I'm retired!) it was pouring down rain outside.  I told Kim I wasn't sure about going to Gulfstream.  I wasn't very interested in driving in a pouring down rainstorm on Interstate 95 just to bet a few races when I could watch on HRTV.  As the morning started the rain let up and a bit of sunshine actually peeked through.  So I decided I would head out and enjoy the off-going.  But with thunderstorms in the forecast for the entire day I settled on heading out for the first five races, then coming home to watch my last three selections run.  I arrived at Gulfstream as the horses were loading in the gate for the opener.  I didn't have a bet, and my top pick was the #6 who I thought would be the favorite.  On the board the #2 was 1-2, and I checked my sheet....he wasn't even in my top three! As the horses hit the far turn the favorite was on the lead but my top pick, at 4/1, was pressing the leader.  At the furlong pole my pick pulled away and the chalk didn't even hit the board.  Not only was I right with my top pick, but the favorite was an obvious "false favorite." 

The second race was scheduled for the turf and I thought Blues and Silvers was a solid pick....there was other speed, but I thought he'd be a fair price and be the speed of the speed.  But, in the event it was washed off the turf I LOVED Sonja's Angel.  She was 2-for-3 at Gulfstream, had Javier Castellano named to ride and fit THREE Gulfstream Park 40% Club angles for Peter Walder.  The jockey-trainer team had clicked at 43% over the last two winters; Walder's runners making their second start off a 30+ layoff won at an equal 43%; and his dirt routers were the same 43% win play.  My plan was to make her a "prime time" play.  But with only four rivals to beat, after the scratches when the race came off the turf I upped the investment to a "BEST of the DAY" level of $30.  I had thought it would be a one-turn mile on the dirt, but it was set for a mile and a sixteenth, which meant the early/alternate finish line half way up the stretch.  No problem because Sonja's Angel was an up-close runner. BUT....her previous wins here had been at the one-turn mile.  Would the added ground make a difference?  She stalked the pace while well held and on the turn Castellano let her run and she was L - O - N - G gone!  She'd been 4/5 as they loaded into the gate and I thought was a huge price for her realistic chances.  But when they hit the far turn the late money had dropped her odds to a miserly 1/5. 

Paid $2.60 and I cashed for nearly $40.  A good feeling to be right with my handicapping and to back it up big time. I didn't have anything in the 3rd, but I did plan to buy a commemorative Gulfstream Park book with photos from the first 75 years.  I was sure I'd read online it was $24.  I went to the gift shop and it was a nice book.  I put it on the counter and the lady rang it up, "that will be $70" she said!  What the......I had mis-read the price, it was $74 if you ordered by phone and $65 if you bought it in person.  I am nearly certain I will eventually get it, but not today. 

The 4th was an interesting race with the conditions being an allowance event for non-winners of a race since December 29.  None of the runners were a perfect fit, but I was against the Pletcher runner.  I was a bit worried that she would win and I'd regret it, but she was making her first start off the turf and that just didn't look like a good fit to me.  Conversely I thought Team Calabrese's Dreaming of Sophia was an excellent alternative.  She was a fair 2/1 and stalked the pace to the turn.  When asked to run she had nothing and finished last of six.  The last race before I planned to leave was the next, the fifth race.  It was a maiden claimer scheduled for five furlongs on the turf.  I liked another Team Calabrese runner, Tough To Stop.  She was first off the claim, and if you check out my analysis, you can see that she had all the numbers and I was actually hoping it would come off the grass.........

I thought she would be odds on, in the neighborhood of 3/5 for sure, but she was 9/5 and dropped to 6/5.  But the crowd never bet her down any further.  I was so excited that she was better than even money.  I took a seat on the finish line in the box seats where we'd sat for Florida Derby Day.  Exactly like I envisioned the race as Edgar Zayas gunned her right to the front and she was clear heading through the turn.  As they turned for home the second choice in the betting was making up ground but I didn't think she would catch her.  Tough to Stop shifted out somewhat and track announcer Larry Colmus called, "Tough to Stop shifts out and that causes Dreamforcarmella C to steady...."  seriously, are we going to have an inquiry or objection.  The closers were coming, but Tough to Stop was safely first....if the race had been at six furlongs it would have been a problem!  I waited for the "ladies and gentlemen...." announcement, but it never came.  It started to rain so I headed towards the car as it was made official.....the payoff of $4.60 was nice and I cashed for nearly $35. 

I didn't have a bet in the 6th, so it was my plan to head home immediately after Tough to Stop's race and get home in time to watch Great Rising Star in the 7th, which was my MTO pick.  Before I went to make my late bets however I was reading what Ron Nicoletti had to say about the afternoon's BET of the DAY in the 8th, and I noticed his pick for the 6th was also Great Rising Star, and then I read his comment, "....of obvious concern is his 37/1-7-6 career record....."  OH MY, somehow I missed that!  And to think he'll be one of the favorites, I made the decision to pass the race.  I went to make my last two bets and the last race selection had scratched.  So instead of heading home with four races to watch, I only had two.  Once I got home I watched the HRTV broadcast of the 7th and Great Rising Star went off as the short priced favorite and was every bit as convincing a winner as was Sonja's Angel in the first bet of the day.  Go figure.  The eighth was the BET of the DAY, and it was a maiden special for sophomore fillies.  Yes, my pick was a Todd Pletcher filly.  The name was Got Lucky.  Here's what I saw in handicapping that made her a standout.  First, and what would make her not only the favorite - as a Pletcher runner - but a short priced favorite, she was coming out of a photo-finish second....good enough on it's own merit.....in the Grade 2 Demoiselle behind Stopshoppingmaria, a Pletcher multiple-stakes winning filly.  And that was AS A MAIDEN!  That would have made her prime time to me, but in her debut she ran in a one-mile race at Belmont.  The winner of that race came back to be third in the Grade 2 Demoiselle - which with Got Lucky beating her maiden rival added to the confidence - and then Penwith came back last week to score last week as the 2/5 favorite in allowance company.  The show horse behind Got Lucky in that maiden run was a filly by the name of U.S.S. O'Brien.  That filly dominated her maiden rivals at Aqueduct last month as my top pick.  The bottom line is that this is one top-notch filly, who's faced high quality runners.  Her drop into this maiden spot made her a standout.  As if you needed anything else, Pletcher is a 44% winner on turnbacks in distance; 45% with horses off a 31 to 60 day layoff; with all dirt routers at 40%; and a huge 47% with class droppers.  WOW.  Sounds like a slam dunk!  Wait a tic......on Sunday, Pletcher sent out a "slam dunk" filly in Highestmaintanence, who also was exiting a photo finish second in a stakes race....and she didn't even hit the board as the 1/5 favorite and my "Bet of the Day."  The only other concern I had was that last race top effort came at nine furlongs, would today's eight furlongs, as a off-the-pace runner, suit her?  I went "all in" with a $50 investment. 

When the gates opened Got Lucky was squeezed back and was quickly behind the leaders.  John Velazquez, still searching for his first win since returning from a Breeders' Cup Day injury on Saturday, moved her outside to have clear run.  As they moved down the backstretch she was five or six off the lead, not too far, but a bit of a concern to me since speed had seemed the way to go today on the off-going.  As they hit the turn he asked Got Lucky to start running.  She did not have a sudden acceleration, but you could tell with each jump her stride was lengthening more and more.  She quickly passed horses in spite of being four wide though the turn and as heads turned for home she had collared the leader.  How much had this extended run taken out of her?  As they neared the furlong marker she found another gear and blew down the stretch as TONS the best!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Ironic that Sonja's Angel, in a claiming event was 1/5, but here in a high quality maiden special race, this stakes-placed filly was allowed to go off at an "inflated" 2/5.  If ever a runner should have been odds on, it was certainly here.  The $2.80 payoff meant I'll be cashing for $70 when I go back to the windows!  In the 9th I liked Toh's Grey Cat who was a healthy 7/2 price.  Right there stalking the pace to the turn, but no late response....7th.  So to start the week I went three-four-five and a $23.50 flat-bet profit winner!