A BIG Day at Gulfstream!
Solid Profit For The Day With 40% WINS!
The original idea had been to head to Gulfstream for the first few races, get the promotional long-sleeve t-shirt for Holy Bull Day, and making bets for the afternoon's races before heading to a Jeff Dunham comedy show at the BB & T Center. But Kim's eye change all that and we went to the doctor in mid-afternoon to find out she had been such a great patient that her eye is "fixed!" Back on Monday to have it sealed with a laser treatment and she should be well on her way to 100% recovery. So, the racing was played online and viewed on HRTV. Today was Holy Bull and Forward Gal Stakes Day at Gulfstream and marked the first step on the road to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Out west it was Sunshine Millions-California Day so I handicapped that card; and I found a "BEST" bet at Calder.
In the opener at Gulfstream I like Wild Billium in a nw3L event over the turf. IF he could run one of his "A" races he'd be the winner. He was under the care of Chad Brown and was dropping in class, and that had produced 71% winners over the past two winters. He made a good move up the rail to the lead turning for home, but could not sustain it and finished third at 3/1. In the second I like Lay It Down who was coming into the race first off the claim for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey. Those guys are lethal together and frequently jockey Julian Leparoux rides well for them (but rarely for me). This seemed to be very effective at this level and by running for less than $40K that was a Gulfstream 40% Club angle. I was surprised that the crowd let him go off at 5/2 when I thought he was a pretty obvious favorite. He stalked a 99-1 longshot while clear of the rest of the field to the turn. Then Leparoux asked him to run and he took the lead. The 8/5 favorite rallied to within a length but Lay It Down had another gear and spurted clear to score!
The $7.40 payoff led to almost $40 to me! Another great start to a racing day. Next up was a Maiden Special for sophomores sprinting six furlongs on the main trak. Yes, there was a Pletcher colt, so Anchor Down was the automatic play for me. He broke slowly and it looked like top rider Javier Castellano was working hard to get him even interested in running. As they hit the turn he still seemed to be spinning his wheels and needing pushing. But suddenly he seemed to find himself and he accelerated immediately. He picked off horses one by one in rapid order and by mid-stretch it was clear he was going to roll to victory, which he did as MUCH the best. Impressive and professional the way he finished.
In the 4th I wrote in my analysis that this would be one of "those" races where we'd look back and say the field was loaded with stakes winners. Everyone was all over the Shug McGaughey runner Top Billing, not only as the winner here but as a Kentucky Derby candidate. I wasn't convinced and didn't even have him in my top three. Surfing USA from the Pletcher barn was my pick and he set sail on the front end and seemed to have the field at his disposal, especially with Top Billing in the back of the field. I thought, "how smart am I" because you can't win from the back going the 8 1/2 furlongs here because of the alternate finish line which is halfway up the stretch! But as they hit the turn Top Billing was flying from the back.....did Surfing USA have enough to hold him off? Not even close. I was a clear best-of-the-rest but Top Billing was ultra-impressive in victory. He'll be in stakes company next time out. I was back in the winner's circle in the 5th when racing moved to the turf. It was a nw2x event and my top choice was Abtaal. I thought he might be a fair price as he was making his first North American start today, so you had to wonder about his ability. Not me! Like many I consider Euro turf runners superior to their American rivals. Abtaal had won a Group 3 and beaten half the field home in a Group 1 event. That would make him a good fit at a Grade 2 event here, and give him a big class edge in an allowance field like this. He had not been out since 2012 but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin wins with 18% of his long layoff types and 33% of his first-time-North American runners. Add in the 32% win average with his first-time-Lasix horses and you can see why I supported him. He trailed through very moderate fractions of :25 and change and :48.3. But as they hit the far turn he was rolling. He had to go five wide through the turn and into the lane, but he was gobbling up ground and was flying down the middle of the course in mid-stretch. He overhauled the leaders and cleared late to score .... my third winner of the day!
The 3/1 post-time odds and $8 payoff allowed me to collect another $40 payoff! WOW it's been a great week and a great day so far. In the 6th it was another Maiden Special for 3-year-olds and I had another Pletcher runner. Holy Wildcat went off at 5/1 and like Anchor Down he trailed early. He too was flying late, but too late to catch the 7/1 winner. The seventh was my "BET OF THE DAY" in the Grade 2 Forward Gal. I loved Todd Pletcher's Onlyforyou, who'd already won once here as my "Best" that day. She only had five rivals to dispose of and I probably would have gone much deeper on the investment had I been at the races. I just have a thing about going $50 (or more) online. And then the DRF preview video saw Mike Beer say he wasn't convinced she was as talented as everyone thought. Still I was convinced, so I stuck with my plan of investing $30. She looked to track the #1 and take over into the lane. But when that filly broke a little behind the field, Onlyforyou was loose on the lead. The third choice was tracking her and as they turned for home that one had come to the favorite's neck. I said out loud, "OK, show me you are as good as I thought you were..." and at that moment Javier Castellano shook the reins and she was LONG GONE! T
 |
He paid a fair $3.20 and I cashed for over $30! In Santa Anita's Grade 2 Santa Monica I thought Teddy's Promise looked best, and she'd won this race last year. I was also pulling for her emotionally as it was slated as her final career race and with a win she'd become a racing millionaire. She surged to the front after the firt quarter mile and was in front turning for home, but could not hold on...third. Next up was the highly anticipated Grade 2 Holy Bull, the first step on the road to the Florida Derby and the then the Kentucky Derby. I told Kim that if it wasn't the graded feature I might not have bet at all but I like to try and win these kind of events. I thought that the field was evenly matched but I gave Cairo Prince the edge. He'd been a game second to highly regarded Honor Code in the Grade 2 Remsen. I thought if he were able to move forward off that race he'd be the winner. Not sure about him as my Florida Derby horse, but today he looked best. Cairo Prince was bet down to 6/5 at one point, which I thought was too short but he floated up to 9/5 and an even higher and better 2/1 as they broke from the gate. He stalked the lead, wide - but as I told Kim when she asked - but in the clear which is where you want to be if you think you have the best horse. He had to run wide into the lane but when jockey Luis Saez gave him his cue he exploded to win very impressively! 
The $6.20 payoff got me another $30! I thought I had the winner in the finale when Charade rallied through the stretch, but he was nailed on the wire at 2/1. I didn't score with any of my other four Santa Anita races so for the day I finished with six wins from fifteen selections, an even 40% for the day and more than $40 in profits. For the week I'm winning at nearly 50% and I'm up over $150! Looking forward to being on track tomorrow with picks from six tracks. The temperatures are supposed to be in the high 70s and there is a chance my best pal from Cypress Bay High, Jeff Nelson might be there. Could be a great way to finish the racing week!
No comments:
Post a Comment