Day 38

Thursday January 30

Not much to say other than Julian Leparoux.....again.  I had three selections left after the rain moved the races off the turf and scratches.  I thought I had a legitimate wire-to-wire upset threat in the first, and CD Gold went right to the front at 8/1....but before the first quarter mile was over another pressed her and passed her and she faded to 7th.  In the third Another Incident (5/2) tried to rally into a pronounced speed bias on the track and was a flat sixth.  My final bet was a triple investment in Hurricane Pass from the Michael Maker barn.  Maker wins with 40% of his runners entered for less that $40K, like this race, and with a whopping 50% with his class droppers, like this one.  The only problem was jockey Julian Leparoux, who if you have followed my adventures you know he haunts me at nearly every turn when I support him.  Sure enough, he had Hurricane Pass in a good stalking position at a ripe 2/1 price as they came out of the turn.  But for what ever reason, and I'll pin it on him, instead of pressing the long shot leader on his hip and blowing by, Hurricane Pass floated at least five wide before Leparoux had him straightened for the run to the wire.  Meanwhile the 6/5 favorite was flying up the rail.  It was a head up and head down duel to the wire.....you can guess, here's the photo.  WOW...... 

But Friday was a M-U-C-H better day! 

Friday January 31

BIG Finish To January!

Yes, today turned out to be a much better day and with two very interesting "track stories" to tell :)  Despite near-sunny skies here at home the track was still very sloppy and we were off the turf today.  But, that was ok as I had anticipated this might be the case and had handicapped accordingly.  And in anticipation of buying the print version of the Daily Racing Form for Saturday I'd completed my handicapping of Gulfstream's Saturday card last night.  I sat down to look at the Racing Form and the entries for Gulfstream didn't match with my selections. My first thought was I'd uploaded the wrong selection analysis for Saturday.  No, I'd bought the wrong version of the DRF!  I had even looked at it carefully because I did not see the "Saturday" across the top like I usually do.  Really?  Not the way I thought I'd start today!  But then I noticed on the cover that a filly I'd hammered at Aqueduct as my BEST of the day a couple of weeks ago was the favorite in the Friday feature.  I flipped to the 8th and saw that indeed Marriedtohemusic was the LONE speed and at 5 1/2 furlongs she would never be caught so I added her to my betting list for today. 

The races started and I thought Hearty Congrats would have a good chance to finish into a pace duel in the Gulfstream opener.  But like yesterday you HAD to be on the lead, or close to it to win.  He was 5/2, so I was encouraged but after making a middle move he was flat through the lane and was 4th.  In the 4th I liked Earthly Delights and he two made a mild rally on the turn and also flattened out to be fifth.  Finally I got my first winner in the 6th.  It was a maiden claiming event and it was scheduled for the turf.  Trainer Michael Maker had entered Drama Coach who was vey fast.  Javier Castellano was a 31% winning rider for the barn in addition to being the top rider at the meet.  Maker was dropping her out of a Maiden Special event into this $25K spot.  Maker is a Gulfstream Park 40% Club member on two angles.....claiming events below $40K, a 40% winning percentage.  And with class droppers a big 50% (remember this from yesterday when Leparoux couldn't capitalize?  Grrrr).  Castellano took her right to the front and after putting away a pace rival at the top of the lane she drew off impressively. 

So after two minimum level bets missed and a double investment score with a 4/5 favorite I'm nearly even!  In the 8th at Gulfstream I stuck with my stalker/closer because I truly thought the favorite was over rated.  Made the right move, except my rider moved too soon ON the turn and went inside the favorite instead of letting that one engage the pace setter and then blowing by on the outside.....now we were pinned on the rail in the slop and were only second best.  Next up was the New York race.  In the first two seconds the race was over.....the gates opened and in two jumps Marriedtothemusic was three lengths in front.  She galloped in fast time and scored going away......WHOOO HOOOO!  Though she paid very little, I made back nearly the price of the DRF I'd bought this morning!  I'll call it a wash :) 

Then came the Gulfstream BEST and the score of the day to close out the month.  The 9th at Gulfstream was scheduled for 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  If it stayed on the grass, which I thought when I handicapped it might, I really liked Christophe Clement's filly Sea Queen.  But if it came off the turf I was equally excited about Dame Dorothy.  As soon as I saw her pp's I knew she was a near certain winner.  Here's the pp's on her and what turned out to be the 6/5 favorite......

Two things jump out at me, first check out the record of normally solid trainer Ian Wilkes who trains Bird Maker.....0-for-25!  YIKES and Julian Leparoux riding.  Now, look at Dame Dorothy.  Pletcher trained, well there you go.  But she was an absolute prototype of the typical Pletcher three-year-old winner.  Win at first asking as a juvenile, take a few months off and come back at Gulfstream running.  Pletcher is a 42% winner with stretch outs, 40% with dirt routers and a big 47% with horses stepping up in class.  With top rider Javier Castellano on board you know she'll get the right ride, unlike Bird Maker.  I tripled the bet.  As they approached the gate Dorothy was 9/5 and Bird was 8/5.  But as they moved around the first turn Bird had dropped to 7/5 and Dorothy was 2/1......and as they moved down the backstretch the odds changed again, somehow Pletcher's filly had ballooned up to 5/2!  I knew, I JUST KNEW as they turned up the backstretch I was the winner.  I could tell Castellano had a ton of horse and in spite of being wide through the first turn he had his mount placed just off the pace setter.  He obviously understood how the track was playing.  Leparoux however held his mount back.  Especially with the first finish line I knew he'd never catch Dame Dorothy.  Sure enough as they hit the turn Castellano accelerated to the front.  Bird Maker began his run but was spinning his wheels on the golden path to the wire and Dorothy widened the victory margin to TWELVE lengths while motored down.  And here's the best part.....she paid an amazing $7.40!  I cashed for over $55 and had made nearly $35 while going 3-for-6 on the last day of the month!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!