A Great Day At The Races
By far the highlight of the day was spending a day under the beautiful Florida sunshine of 80 degrees with the Nelson family. But to be honest, it was NOT the kind of day I expected based on the way the week had gone, so before I recount the highlights of the day, let me list the multiple, MANY disappointments of the day......
- 1-Aqueduct, England at 4/5 is outrun to the front and is never in it, 4th
- 1-Tampa, Cookie at 1/1 duels from gate to wire, but is outfinished, 2nd
- 2-Aqueduct, Rift claimed for $20K dropped to $12K is outrun at 6/5, 5th
- 2-Gulfstream, Highestmaintenance at 1/5 is dueled into defeat and finishes off the board as my BET of the Day
- 4-Tampa, Film Star running for a 48% winning barn first time for them led to the furlong pole and then was outfinished to be 2nd
- 7-Aqueduct, Kilnockagain is unbeaten over the Aqueduct inner course, goes off a 4/5 and fails to hit the board, 4th
- 8-Tampa, Crimson Knight - my Tampa "best" sets an easy pace to mid-stretch then is caught by not one by two rivals - 3rd at 6/5
My first win of the day came in the third at Tampa, a non-winners of 3-lifetime. When I went through the horses the first time I not only had no strong opinion on any of them, but when I looked at the runner with the "best" numbers I quickly felt that Bold Occurance was not for me. He was a weak 2-for-21 and had finished back-to-back seconds a this level. Top that off with a rider that was only 4-for-43! But when I flipped to the selections page, it was the DRF Handicapper's "BEST" of the day. How can that be I thought? He has to know something that's not obvious, so on that angle alone I made him a minimum selection. He was sent off at 6/5 and hestalked the leaders into the stretch, moved up three wide, engaged the leader to the furlong marker and drew off in hand to win. WOW....go figure! But at that point of the day, I was happy to cash any ticket on any horse. Less than five minutes later I had my "best" of the day at Calder. Last Saturday I had planned to triple the bet on Kodiak Kody in a Maiden Special event, but he scratched. He was re-entered today and he looked as good if not better than last week, so again I tripled the bet. He stalked the dueling leaders to the turn, then glided up and edged to the front. As heads turned for home and he looked like he would draw off the pace-setting second choice refused to give way. A terrific duel to the wire started! And in the final 100 yards a closer on the outside, and one up the rail were flying for a four-horse blanket finish! I was nearly certain that I'd won in spite of the slo-mo photo finish on the board. Sure enough, I'd scored again and cashed for over $40!
The next score came at Gulfstream, it was a "it figures today" kind of win. By the time the fifth race went to post I'd already lost with 7 short-priced favorites, four with deep investments.....it was just one of those days, a hard day to find a winner. The fifth was my "UPSET of the Day" and I'd selected Cars and Trucks at 12/1 in the program as we headed on to the turf. But, when I got to the track he was scratched. Normally when I have my top selection, at a price, scratch I pass the race because very often my second choice is a favorite that I did not like. But today I did like Sayler's Creek. He was a Ramsey runner, trained by Michael Maker with Javier Castellano on board. All that was a plus; but he was marooned in post eleven and was coming off a gut-wrenching photo-finish win at this claiming price, but in nw2L company.. But the connections were solid and he'd fired two bullet works since that race. So I had decided before the racing day started (and all the favorites went down) that I would move him to the top of the list and double the bet. Castellano had him placed near the back off a hot pace (:23 - :46 for a turf route). He moved approaching the turn, was wide through the turn and set sail in front for the wire once heads turned for home. There was no caching him as he was much the best.
The payoff of a nice $7.60 netted nearly $40 for me! I scored again at Tampa in a Maiden Special event for older runners. Bowman's Sam seemed, like so many of my picks today an OBVIOUS winner. Granted Beyer Speed Figures are a little less reliable in maiden races, but his last THREE RACE FIGURES were better than any figure earned by any other rival in the field today. He was in hand on the front end, but as they hit the turn, the second choice was breathing down his neck. It was time to accelerate and sprint to the wire.....but it was the challenger who surged to the front! I thought, "you've got to be kidding...." as this looked to be just another "how does this happen" finish for me today. But inside the furlong marker Bowman showed great courage and heart, especially for a runner on the rail inside a horse that had headed him, and most especially as a maiden. He reached down and surged to the front in the final fifty yards. My triple investment returned nearly $30 for me. I scored on the turf at the Fair Grounds in their 5th, a claiming event going eight furlongs. When I first scanned the field I thought that #10-Splendiferous was a good favorite to play against. Top rider Rosie Napravnik was on board and this runner had been unable to win for months. But after looking through the field I was not certain any of the others would win. I re-examined Splendiferous. His last win had come as the second of two straight....both here, and both with Rosie up. In fact it was the last time she'd ridden the horse. His closing style would minimize the outside post disadvantage and by being outside most would be like I was early in my handicapping decision-making, leery of him and a boost to his price. Sure enough he went off at better than 5/2, and as they approached the far turn Splendiferous was not in the TV screen. By the time they hit the top of the lane he was fourth and had all the momentum. He struck the front with a furlong to go and nearly ran out of gas, but had enough left to win for the third time in a row under Rosie's riding.
The "best" score of the day came in the feature at Gulfstream, the Sweetest Chant Stakes for three-year-old fillies. I've often said that to win the "big" race of the day, to be "right" in the big race is often as rewarding as having a winning day. And with the Nelsons here and following (often betting) my picks, it was important to me to have the "right horse" in the big race of the day. I liked Ready to Act. She had won at first asking at Saratoga last summer and seemed well on her way to her first graded win in her second start, the Grade 2 Natalma at Woodbine. But in mid-stretch when clear of the field she suddenly turned sharply to the left, tossed the rider and nearly ran into the rail! Trainer Chad Brown did not give up on her and she was sent to the Breeders' Cup. She drew the far outside post 11 for the BC Juvenile Filly Turf, but still pressed the pace all the way to the stretch despite the wide trip. Though she faded to sixth, she was only five off the leader on the wire. So when she came back here a month ago in an allowance spot I thought she was much the best. But after moving to the front turning for home, she was flat through the lane and was second to an upset longshot. Both that winning filly and the one who was just behind Ready To Act that day were back today. To me I felt like if Chad Brown felt she was not the same filly he would not have come off that disappointing effort to run in a stakes, he'd have sent her into another allowance spot. I also thought that the two others from the race were flattered by the fact that she did not run her best. And I didn't like any of the other rivals here. She was a co-choice 2/1 as they approached the gate. Finally she was the tepid 9/5 favorite as the moved up the backstretch. She sat third off dueling front runners. I told Jeff, "She's right where she should be and needs to be if she's good enough today." On the turn she moved outside the leaders and surged to the front. But it was a stretch duel to the wire. She again ran greenly, first veering in, then out. So her narrow win was a "better than it looks" as she probably would have been open lengths the best if she'd run straight. I was delighted to share a winning ticket with my good buddy! 
The payoff of $5.80 was more than generous considering how talented I believe Ready To Act is. After losing the finale at Gulfstream we said our goodbyes and I made four late bets to watch later. I didn't add up the numbers on the day, as is my practice - just superstitious about that. But in glancing at my two selection sheets I thought if I had any chance of breaking even I needed to sweep or take three of the four. Later that evening I watched my HRTV recordings and in the first of the four it was my "Upset of the Day" at the Fair Grounds. Fable was my pick in a maiden special event on the turf for three-year-olds. He was a debut runner, but here's what caught my eye, the barn was 17% with a huge $8.68 ROI with first time starters, and an even better 22% with first-time turf runners, with a HUGE $14.76 ROI with those. The all-Russian jockey-trainer team was winning at 19% with a $4.63 ROI. I doubled the bet. The gates opened and immediately he was squeezed by the horses to his inside and outside....oh no. But the rider smartly took him inside to save ground. Moving into the turn he was in position to score! But he had no where to run, he was behind a wall of five runners. Finally a seam opened on the rail and he was on the move. At the 1/8th pole while in full stride when the hole suddenly closed and the jockey had to take him up sharply, then had to shift him outside four paths....and he found his stride again and accelerated towards the winner. But it was not enough, second. I think had he not had the troubled start and especially the trip he's the winner and I cash for over $70. In the next on the list, Diversity Harbor was my pick in a MSW for 3-year-olds going down the hill at Santa Anita. Gary Stevens was on board and as they hit the final turn he was last and going nowhere. But once they'd crossed the dirt it was like a light clicked on. Stevens moved him from the rail to the far outside, about eight paths out, and let him go. In what the HRTV columnists called a "breathtaking turn of foot" he exploded by the entire field and won by five widening lengths without Stevens ever raising the stick. An amazing win, at better yet at better than 5/1. The $13 payoff netted over $30 to the cause. Right back for the same trainer-ownership (Tom Proctor & Glen Hill Farms) with Stevens again Chelios went right to the front in full control. At the top of the lane he opened up like something special. And when a late runner came flying Stevens confidently just shook the reigns and he was clear on the wire! I missed in the Clocker's Corner - also down the hill - in Santa Anita's feature and the last race on my sheet. When I did compile the numbers, that troubled run by Fable cost me the even balance sheet on the day. Had Highestmaintanence won and any other runner of the many, many short-price favorites scored it would have been a big day!
For the week, in spite of today, I still had a very big week:
59/ 21-9-5 .... 36% WINNING Average ...... $2.27 ROI ......
Profit of over $80!
Check out the highlight video of today's "Day at the Races" below.
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